The next five days will feature an unusual pairing of major US data releases: the January employment report on Wednesday and the January CPI report on Friday, two reports which usually never appear in the same week. Ahead of those, markets will digest December retail sales and the Q4 employment cost index tomorrow, alongside a heavy schedule of Fed speakers, many of them current voters. Global inflation updates from China (Wednesday) and several European economies will add to the momentum, while the UK’s Q4 ...

Businesses and workers have different views of the economy, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President and CEO Mary C. Daly said in a Friday (Feb. 6) post on LinkedIn.By completing this form, you agree to receive marketing communications from PYMNTS and to the sharing of your information with our sponsor, if applicable, in accordance with our Privacy Policy and Terms and Conditions .Complete the form to unlock this article and enjoy unlimited free access to all PYMNTS content — no additional logins req ...

Well, he is everyone's least favorite candidate. I mean, I mean, to me, look, the main criticism I have of Kevin Warsh is lack of judgment. Okay.Because. The performance. His performance during the financial crisis was not a pretty a particularly good one.And I think you could say arguably that it is disqualifying. I mean, to be that concerned about inflation at a time when the unemployment rate was rising very rapidly, you know, it kind of strains credulity. So.And in the years since. Everyone makes bad ca ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, focusing on employment, inflation, and economic growth. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth**: The U.S. economy expanded at a solid pace, with consumer spending remaining resilient and business fixed investment continuing to grow. However, the housing sector has shown weakness [2][3]. - **Labor Market**: The unemployment rate was stable at 4.4%, with job gains averaging 22,000 per month in non-farm payrolls. Private payrolls increased by an average of 29,000 per month, indicating some stabilization in the labor market [2][3][10]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation has eased from its mid-2022 highs but remains elevated. The total PCE prices rose by 2.9% over the past year, while core PCE prices increased by 3.0%. The elevated inflation is largely attributed to the goods sector, influenced by tariffs, while disinflation is observed in the services sector [3][4][39]. - **Monetary Policy Stance**: The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%. This decision follows a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points over the previous three meetings, aimed at stabilizing the labor market and guiding inflation towards the 2% target [4][5]. - **Future Rate Adjustments**: The Fed is positioned to adjust the policy rate based on incoming data and evolving economic conditions. The committee emphasized a meeting-by-meeting approach to decision-making [5][27]. - **Tariff Impact**: The effects of tariffs on goods prices are expected to peak and then decline, contributing to a one-time price increase rather than ongoing inflation. The Fed anticipates that as tariff effects diminish, it may allow for policy loosening [39][81]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Sentiment**: There is a disconnect between consumer sentiment surveys, which indicate negative perceptions of the economy, and actual consumer spending data, which remains strong [70][75]. - **AI and Labor Market**: The impact of AI on the labor market is being closely monitored, with concerns that it may supplant entry-level jobs. However, technological advancements are also expected to increase productivity over time [76][77]. - **Fiscal Policy Concerns**: The U.S. federal budget deficit is on an unsustainable path, which could pose long-term risks to the economy. The Fed emphasizes the need for addressing fiscal challenges [57][58]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical risks, particularly related to energy prices, are acknowledged, but the current economic outlook remains stable despite global uncertainties [85][86]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the U.S. economy, labor market dynamics, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy approach.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says employment and inflation risks have diminished during a news conference following the central bank's decision to leave interest rates unchanged. ...

分组1 - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to keep interest rates steady, with a focus on how the Fed communicates its stance on inflation and employment [1][2][3] - The US economy is transitioning from headwinds to tailwinds, with lower oil prices, a weaker dollar, and ongoing AI and energy data center investments contributing positively [4][5] - The "one big beautiful bill" allows companies to immediately expense 100% of their capital expenditures, which is anticipated to boost sectors benefiting from strong capital expenditures [6] 分组2 - The performance of small-cap stocks, particularly the Russell 2000, has been driven by companies with negative earnings outperforming those with positive earnings, which is seen as unusual [15][16][17] - Despite the unusual performance dynamics, there are expectations for a more favorable environment for all stocks in 2026 due to various economic tailwinds [18]

Summary of Key Points from the December FOMC Minutes Industry Overview - The document discusses the economic outlook as assessed by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, focusing on employment and inflation trends in the U.S. economy. Core Insights and Arguments - The December FOMC minutes indicate a dovish shift in monetary policy expectations, with "most" participants anticipating further rate cuts if inflation slows as projected [5][6][7] - Chair Powell's assessment during the meeting highlighted a more cautious view on employment and inflation, suggesting that the balance of risks is shifting towards downside risks for employment and away from inflation [7][10] - "Several" participants noted a decrease in upside risks to inflation, contrasting with previous assessments where "many" had expressed concerns about persistent inflation [8] - The unemployment rate, which rose to 4.4% in September, is now viewed as a sign of increased fragility in the labor market, with expectations that it may reach 4.7% in December [9] - The minutes suggest that the trade-off between employment and inflation may not be as challenging as previously thought, given the more optimistic outlook for inflation [10] Additional Important Details - The FOMC minutes reflect a consensus that while inflation risks remain, the perception of these risks has shifted, with a majority now expecting continued disinflation in housing services [8] - The decision to initiate reserve management purchases in December aligns with the assessment that reserve levels have declined to an ample region, indicating a need for clearer definitions of "ample" reserves [11] - The document emphasizes the importance of considering these insights in the context of broader economic indicators and potential investment strategies moving forward [3][4]

Economic Indicators and Employment Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release November job openings, quitting, and layoffs data, alongside the December jobs report [2] - Economists project that approximately 60,000 jobs were added in December, resulting in a total of about 670,000 jobs added for 2025, significantly lower than the 2 million jobs added in 2024 [5] - The jobless rate is expected to decrease to 4.5% in December from a four-year high, indicating a modest employment growth trend [5] Inflation Trends - In the euro zone, inflation reports for Germany and France are due, with expectations that the headline inflation will stabilize at 2% and core inflation at 2.4% [6][7] - Switzerland's inflation is predicted to slightly increase to 0.1% after an unexpected drop to zero in November, which aligns with the central bank's forecast [11] - Australia's CPI figures are expected to show a modest easing of inflation, remaining above the central bank's target, which will influence the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy stance [14] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy, with upcoming data likely supporting the stabilization of inflation at target levels [7][8] - In Latin America, central banks in Chile, Peru, and Mexico may consider mild adjustments to monetary policy, while Brazil is positioned for aggressive unwinding of rates [17][18] - Peru's central bank may hold rates at 4.25% due to inflation running below the target range, reflecting a cautious approach amid upcoming elections [19] Sector-Specific Insights - The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence is seen as a limiting factor for payroll growth, as companies focus on enhancing productivity [3] - Employers have slowed hiring in 2025, indicating a stabilization in job openings and a cautious approach to additional hiring due to government trade-policy announcements [4]

Summary of FOMC Minutes Industry Overview - The document pertains to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates and inflation expectations. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Decisions**: - Most participants supported lowering the fed funds rate in December due to increased downside risks to the labor market and lower or unchanged upside risks to inflation. A few participants had a finely balanced view on this decision, while some preferred to keep the rate unchanged due to concerns about stalled inflation progress [2][3][4] 2. **Inflation and Employment Risks**: - Participants generally believed that upside risks to inflation remained elevated, while downside risks to employment had increased since mid-2025. Most participants thought further rate cuts would be appropriate over time if inflation slowed as expected [3][4] 3. **Labor Market Outlook**: - The labor market was expected to stabilize under appropriate monetary policy, but the outlook remained uncertain. Most participants saw risks to employment skewed to the downside, with rising unemployment among vulnerable groups and potential for higher layoffs [4] 4. **Inflation Projections**: - Participants expected inflation to remain somewhat elevated in the near term before gradually declining to the Fed's 2% target. Many anticipated that tariff pressures on core goods inflation would subside, and a majority expected disinflation in housing services [8] 5. **GDP Growth Forecasts**: - The Fed staff projected moderately faster GDP growth through 2028 compared to previous forecasts, reflecting easier financial conditions and stronger potential output growth. The inflation forecast was slightly lower for 2025 and 2026, but risks to growth and labor market forecasts were skewed to the downside [8] 6. **Reserve Management Purchases**: - The FOMC decided to start reserve management purchases (RMPs) at the December meeting, with participants generally supporting flexibility in adjusting the size and timing of RMPs to accommodate demand for Fed liabilities. RMPs were emphasized as a tool for interest rate control and market functioning [9] Other Important Content - The document includes various disclosures and regulatory information related to Goldman Sachs and its analysts, emphasizing the importance of considering this report as one factor in investment decisions [6][10][11][12][20]

分组1 - The Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points was a closer call than it appeared, with some members expressing a preference for no change or a larger cut [1] - There is a debate within the Fed regarding the balance between inflation concerns and labor market conditions, with some members advocating for future cuts if inflation declines as expected [1] - The Fed acknowledges a K-shaped economy, where higher-income households are spending strongly while lower-income households are adjusting to inflation [1] 分组2 - Concerns about persistent inflation are present, with some members worried that the Fed's commitment to the 2% inflation target could be undermined [1] - The labor market is expected to continue softening but may stabilize next year with appropriate policy measures [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is seen as diminishing, but there are still concerns about entrenched inflation and its effects on the economy [1][2]