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Fundstrat's Tom Lee: This is the most hated v-shaped rally by institutional investors
CNBC Television· 2025-07-03 16:39
Fundstrat head of research and Fundstrat Capital CIO Tom Lee, also a CNBC contributor, joins me here. Tom, good to see you. Great to see you.So, we have this rally that's now extending uh probably beyond what most were positioned for, but it started in a moment of peak uncertainty. Yes. And even when we were in peak uncertainty, a lot of us were saying that's kind of usually forward-looking bullish.But are we now getting to a point where we have finally feasted on all of the uncertainty and now we have a lo ...
CNBC Fed Survey: Majority believes the tax bill will significantly increase the deficit
CNBC Television· 2025-06-17 15:43
Market Outlook - CNBC's Fed survey participants show growing optimism about the outlook for markets, anticipating a bounce back in the economy and stocks in 2026 [1] - The survey projects the S&P 500 to reach 6133 by year-end, a 15% increase, and 6625 in 2026, nearly a 10% increase from yesterday's close [2] - Equity markets are near all-time highs, anticipating certainty on tariffs, extension of the 2017 tax cuts, deregulation, AI productivity, and Fed easing, potentially leading to economic reacceleration in the second half into 2026 [2][3] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The survey indicates no expectation for a rate cut next month, with the funds rate remaining above the long run neutral rate into 2026 [4][5] - The survey builds in two rate cuts for this year and one for next year [4][5] Fiscal Policy and Deficit - 82% of respondents believe the tax bill will increase the deficit [3] - Opinions are divided on the tax bill's impact on growth, with 29% more optimistic, 29% less optimistic, and 43% believing it doesn't matter [3][4] Inflation and Tariffs - A 43% to 32% margin believes tariffs will be one-time price increases rather than creating broader inflation [6] - 61% of respondents anticipate tariff inflation is yet to come in the months ahead [6]