Um, I wanted to ask about inflation expectations. Um, you've said the Fed can't take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Um, you mentioned at the short run they've gone up a little bit.I wonder if you can talk a bit a bit about that. Um, and then also at the long run, I'm wondering do you see evidence that the debate over Fed independence and the growing deficit is putting pressure on inflation expectations. So, as you as you said, um, shorter term inflation expectations have tended to resp ...

Um, I wanted to ask about inflation expectations. Um, you've said the Fed can't take the stability of inflation expectations for granted. Um, you mentioned at the short run they've gone up a little bit.I wonder if you can talk a bit a bit about that. Um, and then also at the long run, I'm wondering do you see evidence that the debate over Fed independence and the growing deficit is putting pressure on inflation expectations. So, as you as you said, um, shorter term inflation expectations have tended to resp ...

Hi, Victoria Aguida with Politico. Um, you've talked a lot about Fed independence and the importance of it um, over the years, but as as markets have questions about uh, what exactly President Trump's intentions are with the Fed, what would you point to as the things they should be watching to determine that the Fed is still making decisions based on um, you know, e the economic outlook rather than political considerations. I look it's deeply in our culture to do to do our work based on the incoming data an ...

Hi, Victoria Aguida with Politico. Um, you've talked a lot about Fed independence and the importance of it um, over the years, but as as markets have questions about uh, what exactly President Trump's intentions are with the Fed, what would you point to as the things they should be watching to determine that the Fed is still making decisions based on um, you know, e the economic outlook rather than political considerations. I look it's deeply in our culture to do to do our work based on the incoming data an ...

Core Viewpoint - The potential impact of a Trump-led Federal Reserve on inflation and interest rates is debated, with some suggesting it could lead to lower inflation despite concerns of higher rates [1][6]. Group 1: Bond Market Reactions - Following Trump's firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, the bond market exhibited significant reactions, with immediate drops in bond yields observed [2][5]. - Two-year bond yields fell sharply, while 10-year bond yields dropped by nearly 10 basis points within 90 minutes, a movement typically seen over a month [5]. - The bond market's response indicates a belief that an independent Fed may contribute to higher long-term inflation [6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Economist Peter St. Onge noted that if the Fed loses its independence, it could lead to lower inflation and interest rates, contrary to some expectations [3][6]. - St. Onge speculated that Wall Street might not receive automatic bailouts under a Trump-controlled Fed, suggesting that increased scrutiny on money printing could result in lower inflation [7].

Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, but the focus will be on the summary of economic projections, including GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, and PCE [1][2] - Jerome Powell will discuss the current economic outlook and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which will provide critical insights for the market [2][3] - There is speculation about dissenting opinions within the Fed regarding the rate decision, with some members potentially advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points [3][4] Trade Talks and International Relations - President Trump's visit to the UK is marked by significant ceremonial events, raising questions about potential new trade deals between the US and the UK [5][6] - Major companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, and OpenAI have announced investments in the UK, indicating a focus on international business relations [8] Housing Market Data - Recent mortgage applications show a decrease in the 30-year mortgage rate from 6.49% to 6.39%, leading to a 2.9% increase in purchases and a substantial 24.4% rise in refinances [10][11] - Housing starts and permits are below expectations, with housing starts at 1.307 million, down from over 1.4 million last month, and permits at 1.31 million, also lower than anticipated [12][13]

Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point cut in interest rates, with traders closely monitoring comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for indications of future cuts [1][7] - There is a consensus that the Fed will initiate a cutting cycle, with expectations of one cut per meeting moving forward [3][10] - The tone of the Fed's communication is anticipated to be dovish, indicating a shift towards a more neutral stance in response to recent economic data [12][14] Market Reactions - The market has priced in the expected rate cut, and historical patterns suggest that such events often lead to continued upward movement in asset prices [21][22] - Retail investors have been accumulating risk, while institutional investors have been slower to re-risk, potentially leading to a supportive environment for equities [22][23] - The long end of the treasury market may not see significant rallies, as the initiation of the cutting cycle could limit demand for long-duration bonds [19][20]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces intense pressure. - MarketWatch photo illustration/Getty Images, iStockphoto Surprisingly strong August retail sales released Tuesday were throwing investors a curveball a day before the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision, triggering a brief climb in Treasury yields and pushing gold GC00 past its prior record above $3,700 an ounce. Yet any signs of political pressure influencing the U.S. central bank’s decision-making process will be the main focus for inve ...

We do have breaking news. Um, just moments ago, the federal appeals court does not allow Donald Trump to remove Lisa Cook from her post. I'll just read from their order.Upon consideration of the emergency motion for stay pending appeal and administrative stay, the opposition's thereto and the reply. The motion for leave to participate as amicus cure filed by the separation of powers clinic and the lodge. Yes. Yes. Yes.This is the order. The motions for leave to participate as uh amicus cure be granted. The ...

Trade & Tariffs - The US bond market is performing well due to revenue from tariffs, expected to bring in hundreds of billions of dollars this year to pay down the debt [26] - Chinese exports to the US are down approximately 14%, while exports to Europe are up approximately 6.9% [51] - The US trade deficit with China is expected to narrow by at least 30% this year and potentially more in 2026 [52] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - A 25 basis point rate cut is priced in [14] - The market is pricing in 75 basis points in rate cuts between now and the end of the year [18] - The Fed has an employment and growth mandate, with the dollar being a byproduct [8] - The President believes the Fed has been behind the curve [13][15] TikTok Deal & National Security - A framework for a deal regarding TikTok has been reached, with President Trump and party chair Xi expected to agree on a final deal [29][32] - The deal includes safeguards for US national security and the interests of citizens, especially children [37] - The Chinese government's approval is needed for the deal between ByteDance and new investors [37] Deregulation & Economic Growth - The US market is responding positively to President Trump's agenda, particularly non-inflationary growth and deregulation [23] - The administration aims to cut through the regulatory morass surrounding American businesses [23] - Deregulation is seen as crucial for the US to become an AI superpower and energy dominant [24]