Industry Overview - The surveillance and general Earth-observation industry is experiencing significant growth due to escalating geopolitical tensions and increased military spending in 2026 [1] Company Focus - The focus is on identifying promising biotechnology companies that are innovating through novel mechanisms of action, first-in-class therapies, or platform technologies [1] - The analysis emphasizes evaluating the science behind drug candidates, the competitive landscape, clinical trial design, and potential market opportunities while balancing financial fundamentals and valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - TKMS, a German submarine maker, reported a record order backlog of $22 billion and raised its 2026 sales outlook due to increased demand for warships amid rising geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - TKMS has experienced a surge in investor demand for shares, driven by the war in Ukraine and U.S. pressure on Europe to enhance military capabilities [1]. - The company expects sales to rise by 2% to 5% in 2026, an increase from a previous forecast of a decline of 1% to an increase of 2% [3]. - In the first quarter of its fiscal year (October to December), sales fell by 1% to €545 million ($649 million), while adjusted operating profit remained stable at €26 million [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The spin-off from former parent Thyssenkrupp was motivated by the need to compete more effectively in global submarine tenders, particularly in India and Canada [2]. - CEO Oliver Burkhard emphasized that the company is well-positioned as the only fully integrated maritime systems supplier in Europe to meet the growing demand for advanced maritime capabilities [2][3].

Well, Your Excellency, it's a real pleasure to be talking to you here today in such a beautiful landscape and a lot of really wonderful to be here. And of course, the ALALA conference is a conference for emerging market economies. So maybe that's a good place to start.In your opening remarks, you were talking about the fact that emerging market economies now account for 56% of the world economy, almost 60%, and its share has doubled since 2000. And yet with all of that, we should not be complacent because t ...

Core Viewpoint - Legendary investor Ray Dalio warns that the world is "on the brink" of a capital war, highlighting the potential for geopolitical tensions to escalate into financial conflict, including trade embargoes and capital controls [1][2][4]. Geopolitical Tensions - Dalio expresses concerns about mutual fears between Europe and the United States regarding sanctions and restricted access to capital markets, indicating that while a capital war hasn't started, the situation is precariously close [2][4]. - The remarks come amid heightened tensions over U.S. international policies, including tariffs and attempts to acquire Greenland, which have caused market volatility and reflect fears of a capital imbalance between major economies [3]. Capital Controls and Market Dynamics - Dalio notes that capital controls are being implemented globally, raising questions about who will be affected, and emphasizes that while a capital war is not currently happening, it is a logical concern [4]. - European investors accounted for 80% of foreign purchases of U.S. Treasurys between April and November, highlighting the interconnectedness of global financial systems and the associated risks [5]. Historical Context and Investment Strategies - Dalio draws historical parallels to the U.S. sanctions on Japan before World War II, suggesting that similar dynamics could unfold between the U.S. and China or Europe [6]. - In response to these geopolitical concerns, central banks and sovereign wealth funds are preparing for potential capital controls, indicating a growing awareness of the risks posed to global capital markets [7]. Investment Recommendations - Amid market uncertainties, Dalio advocates for gold as a reliable hedge against volatility, emphasizing its critical role as a diversifier despite recent price fluctuations [8]. - He advises central banks and investors to maintain a percentage of their portfolios in gold to safeguard against economic downturns [8].

Corporate News - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has announced multiple vehicle recalls, including BMW of North America LLC recalling 87,394 and an additional 202 vehicles, Ember Recreational Vehicles Inc recalling 317 vehicles, and Daimler Coaches North America recalling 51 vehicles, indicating ongoing quality control and safety challenges within the automotive and recreational vehicle sectors [5][9] Industrial Sector - UACJ is set to produce large parts for Japan's H3 rocket, signifying Japan's continued investment and advancement in its aerospace capabilities [6][9] - Phillips 66 reported an emission incident at its Wood River oil refinery, raising environmental concerns [6]

Core Viewpoint - Global oil benchmarks have experienced a decline as geopolitical tensions have eased, leading to a more stable market environment [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The easing of geopolitical tensions has resulted in a drop in oil prices, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [1] - Analysts suggest that the reduction in risk factors has contributed to a more favorable outlook for oil supply and demand dynamics [1] Group 2: Price Movements - Specific benchmarks, such as Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), have seen notable decreases in their prices, indicating a broader trend across the oil market [1] - The decline in prices may influence investment strategies and operational decisions within the oil industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant selloff, briefly dipping below $72,000, marking its lowest level in nearly 16 months, with traders adjusting their expectations for both short-term and long-term price movements [1][6]. Market Sentiment - Polymarket's February Bitcoin price contract indicates a strong focus on the $70,000 target, which has surged to a 74% probability, reflecting a 65% increase in trading volume [2][3]. - The $85,000 contract has seen a drastic decline of 61%, now sitting at a 29% probability, while higher targets like $90,000 and $95,000 are at 12% and 7% respectively [2][3]. Long-term Outlook - For the 2026 annual contract, the $100,000 level has a 55% probability but has decreased by 29%, indicating a shift in trader sentiment [4]. - The $65,000 contract for 2026 has surged to 83% probability, with over $1 million in volume, suggesting a focus on downside protection rather than upside speculation [5]. Factors Driving the Selloff - Bitcoin has fallen 16% year-to-date and approximately 40% from its all-time high of $126,000, influenced by rising geopolitical tensions, data gaps from a previous government shutdown, and a hawkish Federal Reserve [6]. - Over $5.4 billion in liquidations have occurred since late January, leading to a nine-month low in open interest, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen significant capital outflows totaling $1.6 billion over several days [6].

Company Overview - AngloGold Ashanti (AU) is scheduled to release its Q4 2025 earnings on February 20, which will include a regular dividend and an additional dividend to meet annual payout targets [1] - The company plans to distribute half of its free cash flows to investors as dividends, having already made two true-up payments following Q2 and Q3 earnings [1] Stock Performance - AU stock has experienced a significant rise over the past two years due to a rally in gold prices, but it has recently lost over 12% from its recent highs [2] - The current question is whether AU stock is a buy ahead of the Q4 earnings announcement [2] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices, which are the primary driver for gold mining companies, have shown volatility recently, resembling the price action of meme stocks in 2021 [3] - Despite positive fundamentals for gold, the market had shown signs of euphoria, leading to a correction that was sharper and sooner than anticipated [6] - Factors contributing to the recent crash in gold prices include easing geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. trade policy, as well as the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, which has affected expectations for interest rate cuts [7][8]

Market Overview - Wall Street extended losses amid renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, impacting major indices [1] - The S&P 500 slipped 0.5% to 6,920, while the Nasdaq 100 fell nearly 1.5% to 25,350 [4] - The Russell 2000 declined by 0.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 0.5% [4] Gold and Precious Metals - SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) surged over 6%, surpassing $4,950 per ounce, marking its strongest session since November 2008 [2] - The rebound in gold prices followed a significant sell-off due to concerns over Kevin Warsh's potential appointment as Federal Reserve chair, which could lead to tighter monetary policy [3] - Silver prices rebounded sharply, climbing nearly 9% to $86 after a previous drop of more than 30% [3] Energy Sector - Crude oil prices increased by 1.8% to $63 per barrel following reports of U.S. forces shooting down an Iranian drone near a Navy aircraft carrier [4] - The U.S. government is preparing to issue a general license allowing companies to pump oil in Venezuela, indicating a potential easing of sanctions to revive the country's energy industry [6] Technology Sector - The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV) dropped 4.8%, marking a fifth consecutive daily decline [5] - Palantir Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:PLTR) saw a nearly 8% increase after reporting earnings that exceeded expectations and providing positive guidance [5] - Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) rose over 2% to $177 per share, reaching a two-year high [5] Digital Assets - Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) resumed its decline, falling more than 3% to around $75,000 [6]

Geopolitical Context - Geopolitical tensions have significantly influenced market volatility in 2026, particularly due to U.S. military actions in Syria and Venezuela, and the risk of escalating conflict with Iran [1][2] Defense Spending Trends - President Trump proposed a $1.5 trillion military budget for 2027, a substantial increase from the $901 billion approved for 2026 [3] - Global defense spending is projected to reach $2.6 trillion by the end of 2026, marking an 8.1% increase over 2025, with the U.S. being the largest contributor [4] Industry Performance - The S&P Aerospace & Defense Select Industry Index has increased by 54.05% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500's 15.49% gain [5] - U.S. defense companies are expected to increase capital expenditure by over 30% in 2026, with five leading firms projected to collectively spend $10.08 billion, a nearly 38% increase from 2025 [6][7] Company Earnings Highlights - Lockheed Martin reported Q4 2025 adjusted earnings of $5.80 per share, missing estimates but showing a 161.3% year-over-year increase, with net sales of $20.32 billion, surpassing estimates by 2.5% [9][10] - RTX Corporation's Q4 2025 adjusted EPS was $1.55, beating estimates by 5.9%, with sales of $24.24 billion, exceeding estimates by 6.6% [13][14] - Northrop Grumman reported Q4 2025 earnings of $7.23 per share, a 13.15% increase from the previous year, with total sales of $11.71 billion, beating estimates by 0.83% [15][16] Investment Opportunities - The aerospace and defense industry is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to rising military spending, with several ETFs such as ITA, PPA, and XAR providing diversified exposure to this trend [11][17][18]