Core Insights - Oil prices have increased due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, overshadowing concerns about a potential supply glut in the market [1] - Geopolitical factors, trade, and technology are currently the main influences on oil prices, with geopolitics being the dominant force [1] - The US is considering actions against Iranian crude shipments, which has contributed to the rise in oil prices [1][3] Oil Market Dynamics - West Texas Intermediate crude settled above $64, reflecting a response to military readiness in the Middle East [1] - Iran, as the fourth-largest OPEC producer, has an estimated production of 3.3 million barrels per day, with recent shipments averaging 1.63 million barrels per day [1] - The labor market in the US is robust, supporting demand for transport fuels and petrochemicals, which reduces downside risks to US consumption [4] Price Trends - Crude oil prices have risen nearly 13% this year, following a 20% decline in 2025 due to concerns over supply outpacing demand [5] - Positive developments in US-Iran nuclear talks have created uncertainty, with fears that failure to reach an agreement could lead to US military action and supply disruptions [5]

Carthage and Rome had amicable relations. But as their respective spheres of influence grew, Mediterranean geopolitics drew them into war. https://t.co/G7ttXeDllT ...

Europe is facing a “geopolitical and geo-economic state of emergency”, declares Emmanuel Macron. If the continent does not invest in its economy and lift barriers to growth more quickly, it will be “swept aside” https://t.co/1KOrVuXaAu ...

Core Insights - Investor sentiment towards Latin American debt markets is shifting positively due to recent US-led intervention in Venezuela, leading to a constructive reaction in credit markets [1] - Venezuelan sovereign and corporate debt have rallied on expectations of potential restructuring, while the broader Latin American credit complex has tightened in sympathy [1] - Markets are pricing in optimism around renewed US strategic interest in the region and the possibility of stronger trade ties [1] Market Dynamics - Venezuela accounts for less than 1% of global oil production, limiting immediate global supply impacts despite geopolitical tensions [1] - Rehabilitation of Venezuelan oil infrastructure could increase production over time, but the short-term effect on global markets remains minimal [1] - Higher oil prices have provided support to energy producers in countries such as Colombia [1] Regional Considerations - Idiosyncratic pressures are noted in Brazil, while Mexican corporates may experience volatility ahead of USMCA renegotiations [1] - The baseline expectation is that an agreement will ultimately be reached regarding USMCA [1] Investment Strategy - Amerant Investments emphasizes a disciplined investment approach focused on fundamentals and analysis of each specific company [1] - Spreads in Latin America are considered wide due to geopolitical fears, but investors are being compensated for that risk [1] - The overall outlook on Latin America is positive at this time [1]

♪ ANNOUNCER: NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS "THE PULSE." JOANNA: GOOD MORNING. I’M FILLING IN FOR FRANCINE LACQUA.THE U.S. JOBS REPORT IS EXPECTED TO SHOW A MARKETABLE MARKDOWN AND TRADERS TURN THEIR ATTENTION TO WHAT IT MIGHT MEAN FOR RATES. THE DATA IS ASSESSED. >> RATHER THAN FINE-TUNING THE FUNDS RATE, I PREFER TO ERR AS WE MONITOR HOW THE ECONOMY PERFORMS.BASED ON MY FORECAST WE COULD BE ON HOLD FOR QUITE SOME TIME. >> WITH ME IS BLOOMBERG LIVE ANALYST. BIG DAY TODAY.THE HEADLINE NUMBER IS EXPEC ...

I think oil right now and just the rest of the commodity complex is really dominated by three themes geopolitics, trade and technology. And certainly right now, geopolitics are a main the main driving force pushing oil close to the high end of of this year's range. But we still expect, of course, if we have kind of a either a peace deal with with Iran or maybe just just kind of a limited just a limited skirmish like we had back in June for prices to revert back to around $60 a barrel on Brent.The market is ...

Geopolitical Influence - Geopolitics is currently the main driving force affecting oil prices, pushing them towards the high end of this year's range, with expectations of a price reversion to around $60 per barrel on Brent if a peace deal with Iran is reached or if limited skirmishes occur [1] Market Supply and Demand - The oil market is oversupplied, with rising inventories and an expected surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day in the global Brent market this year [2][3] - OPEC has additional time to decide on production adjustments, but there is a significant amount of oil available in the market, and the price war initiated by OPEC to recover market share is not yet fully resolved [3] OPEC's Strategy - If oil prices exceed $70 per barrel and remain there, OPEC is likely to be incentivized to bring spare capacity back to the market [4] - OPEC is expected to increase oil production to recover market share, with a meaningful decline in super productive capacity anticipated over the next one to two years [5][7] U.S. Production Impact - Between 2022 and 2024, U.S. crude oil output increased by an additional 3 million barrels per day, which OPEC+ aims to avoid repeating [6] - A resurgence in U.S. shale output could occur if prices fall significantly below $70 per barrel, which is undesirable for OPEC [5][6]

From street protests to the ballot box: Bangladesh’s election tests a fractured Gen Z movement, economic frustration, and a delicate India-China balance. https://t.co/6DSeDUH0ZS ...

Core Insights - The silver market is experiencing an all-time high deficit, with a reported shortfall of 67 million ounces (Moz) of fine silver [1][2] - The forecast for 2026 indicates that Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) holdings will reach 1.31 billion ounces, with investment demand projected at 227 million ounces [1][2] Supply vs Demand - The current supply-demand dynamics in the silver market highlight a significant deficit, emphasizing the imbalance between supply and investment demand [1][2] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events are influencing the silver market, contributing to the ongoing deficit and shaping future demand forecasts [1][2]

Europe is facing a “geopolitical and geo-economic state of emergency”, declares Emmanuel Macron. If the continent does not invest in its economy and lift barriers to growth more quickly, it will be “swept aside” https://t.co/1KOrVuXaAu ...