Geopolitical Influence - Geopolitics is currently the main driving force affecting oil prices, pushing them towards the high end of this year's range, with expectations of a price reversion to around $60 per barrel on Brent if a peace deal with Iran is reached or if limited skirmishes occur [1] Market Supply and Demand - The oil market is oversupplied, with rising inventories and an expected surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day in the global Brent market this year [2][3] - OPEC has additional time to decide on production adjustments, but there is a significant amount of oil available in the market, and the price war initiated by OPEC to recover market share is not yet fully resolved [3] OPEC's Strategy - If oil prices exceed $70 per barrel and remain there, OPEC is likely to be incentivized to bring spare capacity back to the market [4] - OPEC is expected to increase oil production to recover market share, with a meaningful decline in super productive capacity anticipated over the next one to two years [5][7] U.S. Production Impact - Between 2022 and 2024, U.S. crude oil output increased by an additional 3 million barrels per day, which OPEC+ aims to avoid repeating [6] - A resurgence in U.S. shale output could occur if prices fall significantly below $70 per barrel, which is undesirable for OPEC [5][6]

Core Insights - The silver market is experiencing an all-time high deficit, with a reported shortfall of 67 million ounces (Moz) of fine silver [1][2] - The forecast for 2026 indicates that Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) holdings will reach 1.31 billion ounces, with investment demand projected at 227 million ounces [1][2] Supply vs Demand - The current supply-demand dynamics in the silver market highlight a significant deficit, emphasizing the imbalance between supply and investment demand [1][2] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events are influencing the silver market, contributing to the ongoing deficit and shaping future demand forecasts [1][2]

Core Insights - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CommBank) projects a cautiously optimistic global economy entering 2026, building on the unexpected strength of 2025, driven by investments in AI and easing monetary policies [1][2] Global Economic Landscape - The United States is expected to lead global growth through AI-driven innovation and lower borrowing costs, amidst persistent inflation, transformative AI potential, and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Bond markets are experiencing rising yields due to expectations of increased government borrowing and a shift towards higher long-term interest rates, rather than inflation spikes [3] - Commodities like oil and gold remain volatile, influenced by supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China [3] AI Sector and Economic Impact - The AI sector is identified as a bright spot, driving capital expenditures in data infrastructure and energy systems, with early signs of productivity gains in advanced economies [4] - In Australia, the economy exceeded forecasts in 2025, leading to both renewed vigor and inflationary risks [4] Domestic Economic Conditions in Australia - Strong consumer demand and rising household incomes are pushing the Australian economy closer to capacity limits, tightening the labor market and increasing investments in AI and renewable energy [5] - National property values in Australia are projected to grow by approximately 5% in 2026, driven by population growth, income gains, and constrained supply [5] Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.85% in February 2026, with expectations for further increases, reflecting a reduced tolerance for inflation exceeding targets [6][7] - Economic expansion in Australia is expected to moderate throughout the year due to higher borrowing costs, which may dampen household spending and overall GDP growth [7] Strategic Focus for Policymakers - CommBank's Chief Economist describes 2026 as a "year of boundaries" for Australia, emphasizing the need for policymakers to balance growth without overheating while leveraging AI productivity boosts [8] - The interplay of AI advancements and geopolitical strains is anticipated to continue influencing market volatility, necessitating adaptability in an interconnected environment [9] Long-term Economic Outlook - Economic progress in 2026 will depend on addressing immediate pressures while investing in long-term resilience [10]

Wealthy Families Are Worried About Geopolitics. But They Aren't Rushing to AI, Crypto, or Gold - Barron'sSkip to Main ContentThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.# Wealthy Families Are Worried About Geopolitics. But They're Not Rushing to AI, Crypto, or GoldBy ...

A U.S. advisory urging American citizens to “leave Iran now” is circulating again online, adding another layer of headline risk to a crypto market already wobbling on high volatility and forced liquidations. Officials have since clarified the warning itself is not new and was first issued in mid-January. Still, the timing matters. The advisory is resurfacing just as the U.S. and Iran prepare to hold nuclear talks in Oman on Friday, with President Donald Trump publicly warning Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatoll ...

Trade Relations - India aims to move past tensions with the US and resume trade negotiations, as indicated by Ajit Doval's meeting with Secretary of State Marco Rubio [1][21] - A trade agreement was announced by Trump, reducing tariffs on Indian goods to 18% and scrapping a 25% duty on Russian oil purchases [6][22] - India is expected to purchase $500 billion of US goods and reduce tariffs on US imports to zero, although these details have not been officially confirmed by the Indian government [6][22] Strategic Partnerships - New Delhi views the US as a long-term strategic partner, essential for capital, technology, and military cooperation to counter China [10][20] - The arrival of US Ambassador Sergio Gor in December marked a renewed effort to stabilize US-India relations, emphasizing the importance of ties between the two nations [12][14] - India is diversifying its trade relationships, having recently secured free trade agreements with the European Union and the UK, indicating a strategic shift amidst US negotiations [16][22] Economic Impact - The US is a crucial market for India, accounting for about 20% of its exports, particularly in mobile phones and electronic goods, which are vital for India's manufacturing goals [18][22] - Significant investment pledges from US companies, including $52 billion from Amazon and Microsoft, and $15 billion from Google for data centers, highlight the growing economic ties [18][22] - Goldman Sachs has established its largest office outside of New York in Bengaluru, underscoring India's increasing importance to the US financial sector [19][22]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting with competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in relation to investments in cryptocurrencies and CFDs [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party materials intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information should not be interpreted as a recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - The accuracy and reliability of the information are not guaranteed, and users are cautioned against relying solely on the content provided [1]. Group 2 - The website discusses the complexities and high risks associated with cryptocurrencies and CFDs, highlighting the potential for significant financial loss [1]. - It encourages users to conduct their own research and fully understand the instruments and risks involved before making investment decisions [1].

Earnings and Economic Data - The upcoming week is expected to feature significant earnings reports from high-profile companies including Palantir, AMD, Google (Alphabet), and Amazon, alongside important economic data leading up to non-farm payrolls on Friday [3][6] - The previous week experienced volatility in the markets, influenced by various factors including tariffs and the Federal Reserve's decisions, with ongoing uncertainty regarding the Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs [4][5] Market Volatility and Commodities - The volatility in metal markets, particularly gold and silver, has been notable, with silver experiencing a drop of approximately 35-40% and gold falling 20% from its highs, causing market jitters [7][11] - Crude oil prices have seen a decline of 4.5%, attributed to increased oil production from Venezuela, softened tensions between the US and Iran, and OPEC's decision to maintain current production levels [15][18] Bitcoin and Investment Trends - Bitcoin has shown signs of stabilization, with discussions around its potential upside due to favorable fundamentals, despite recent heavy trading activity and uncertainty regarding its true value [8][9] - Investors are reallocating funds, with a trend towards gold and technology stocks, indicating a shift in market sentiment [8][10] Geopolitical Factors - Gold continues to be viewed as a safe haven asset amid geopolitical tensions, particularly with ongoing issues related to Iran, which may support its price in the future [14] - The strengthening of the US dollar, influenced by the appointment of Kevin Worsh as head of the Fed, is impacting the attractiveness of gold and silver investments [20]

Group 1: Investment Strategies - Many family offices are shifting towards real estate and alternative investments, particularly private equity and hedge funds, to protect their portfolios against inflation [1][3] - U.S. family offices reported holding 40% of their investments in public equities, while 34% are in private investments, including private equity, venture capital, private credit, and real estate [5] Group 2: Concerns and Risks - A significant number of family offices are concerned about inflation and geopolitical risks, with 64% citing interest rates and 61% citing inflation as major risks to their portfolios [2] - Nearly three-quarters (72%) of family offices surveyed reported having no exposure to gold, indicating a reluctance to invest in gold despite its recent price surge [6][7] Group 3: Focus on Technology - Artificial intelligence (AI) is a prominent investment theme for family offices, with 65% including AI in their portfolios or prioritizing it for future investments [4] - There is a strong belief among family offices that AI should be a central part of their investment strategy, although there are concerns about concentration risk [6] Group 4: Cash Management - Family offices are maintaining large amounts of cash and cash equivalents, with some holding cash to prepare for potential downturns and to capitalize on opportunistic investments if asset prices decline [8] - Concerns about inflation are leading some family offices to prefer holding cash, as higher rates could result from inflationary pressures [9]

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 军费开支攀升、雷达现代化改造、电子战发展以及安全卫星通信网络的扩张，正共同推动射频 （RF）技术从单纯的性能升级，转变为关乎国家安全的战略必需品。 本文由 Yole Group 射频与化合物半导体领域分析师 Ahmad Abbas 和 Cyril Buey 联合撰写。这 份行业简报深入探讨了国防与卫星通信两大领域，如何推动射频解决方案迈入具有战略意义的全 新发展阶段。 基于 Yole Group《2025 年射频行业现状报告》（2026 版即将发布）、《2026 年氮化镓射频市 场报告》、《2026 年国防射频技术报告》等多份研究成果，两位分析师对射频技术的发展现状进 行了最新梳理，重点聚焦氮化镓（GaN）基解决方案。他们分析了驱动当前市场格局的核心技 术、参与企业及供应链变化趋势，并清晰阐述了氮化镓射频技术缘何成为未来国防与太空基础设 施的基石。 国防与卫星通信需求：推动射频技术向氮化镓转型 从市场出货量来看，硅基射频技术凭借成本优势和高集成度，目前仍占据主导地位。但在硅基技术难 以突破的高功率、高频段应用场景中，以氮化镓为代表的化合物半导体正不断扩大市场份额 ...