Geopolitical Influence - Geopolitics is currently the main driving force affecting oil prices, pushing them towards the high end of this year's range, with expectations of a price reversion to around $60 per barrel on Brent if a peace deal with Iran is reached or if limited skirmishes occur [1] Market Supply and Demand - The oil market is oversupplied, with rising inventories and an expected surplus of approximately 2 million barrels per day in the global Brent market this year [2][3] - OPEC has additional time to decide on production adjustments, but there is a significant amount of oil available in the market, and the price war initiated by OPEC to recover market share is not yet fully resolved [3] OPEC's Strategy - If oil prices exceed $70 per barrel and remain there, OPEC is likely to be incentivized to bring spare capacity back to the market [4] - OPEC is expected to increase oil production to recover market share, with a meaningful decline in super productive capacity anticipated over the next one to two years [5][7] U.S. Production Impact - Between 2022 and 2024, U.S. crude oil output increased by an additional 3 million barrels per day, which OPEC+ aims to avoid repeating [6] - A resurgence in U.S. shale output could occur if prices fall significantly below $70 per barrel, which is undesirable for OPEC [5][6]

Core Insights - The silver market is experiencing an all-time high deficit, with a reported shortfall of 67 million ounces (Moz) of fine silver [1][2] - The forecast for 2026 indicates that Exchange-Traded Product (ETP) holdings will reach 1.31 billion ounces, with investment demand projected at 227 million ounces [1][2] Supply vs Demand - The current supply-demand dynamics in the silver market highlight a significant deficit, emphasizing the imbalance between supply and investment demand [1][2] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical events are influencing the silver market, contributing to the ongoing deficit and shaping future demand forecasts [1][2]

Core Insights - The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CommBank) projects a cautiously optimistic global economy entering 2026, building on the unexpected strength of 2025, driven by investments in AI and easing monetary policies [1][2] Global Economic Landscape - The United States is expected to lead global growth through AI-driven innovation and lower borrowing costs, amidst persistent inflation, transformative AI potential, and geopolitical uncertainties [2] - Bond markets are experiencing rising yields due to expectations of increased government borrowing and a shift towards higher long-term interest rates, rather than inflation spikes [3] - Commodities like oil and gold remain volatile, influenced by supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China [3] AI Sector and Economic Impact - The AI sector is identified as a bright spot, driving capital expenditures in data infrastructure and energy systems, with early signs of productivity gains in advanced economies [4] - In Australia, the economy exceeded forecasts in 2025, leading to both renewed vigor and inflationary risks [4] Domestic Economic Conditions in Australia - Strong consumer demand and rising household incomes are pushing the Australian economy closer to capacity limits, tightening the labor market and increasing investments in AI and renewable energy [5] - National property values in Australia are projected to grow by approximately 5% in 2026, driven by population growth, income gains, and constrained supply [5] Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its cash rate to 3.85% in February 2026, with expectations for further increases, reflecting a reduced tolerance for inflation exceeding targets [6][7] - Economic expansion in Australia is expected to moderate throughout the year due to higher borrowing costs, which may dampen household spending and overall GDP growth [7] Strategic Focus for Policymakers - CommBank's Chief Economist describes 2026 as a "year of boundaries" for Australia, emphasizing the need for policymakers to balance growth without overheating while leveraging AI productivity boosts [8] - The interplay of AI advancements and geopolitical strains is anticipated to continue influencing market volatility, necessitating adaptability in an interconnected environment [9] Long-term Economic Outlook - Economic progress in 2026 will depend on addressing immediate pressures while investing in long-term resilience [10]

WW3 starts today according to the Epstein files ☹️Will US Iran war start today and mark the start of WW3 today? https://t.co/1o8QajkJlB ...

If the U.S. and China come to blows over Taiwan, a naval base in Australia offers a berth to bring American nuclear-powered submarines close to the fight https://t.co/EKIQ8bRrUF ...

This past week, Ukraine's president Zalinski reasserted he doesn't want to surrender any territory in exchange for peace with Russia. A declaration that followed earlier warnings from Russian President Vladimir Putin that if Europe engaged in a wider war, it would be defeated. Nearly four years in, the conflict continues to send shock waves through the Western Alliance.European nations are beefing up their defenses. Nowhere is the impact more profound than in Germany. Scarred by their country's Nazi past, G ...

Wealthy Families Are Worried About Geopolitics. But They Aren't Rushing to AI, Crypto, or Gold - Barron'sSkip to Main ContentThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.# Wealthy Families Are Worried About Geopolitics. But They're Not Rushing to AI, Crypto, or GoldBy ...

The US is preparing new arms sales to Taiwan, which have unsettled Chinese officials to the point that President Donald Trump’s planned visit to China in April could be in jeopardy, according to the Financial Times https://t.co/0R3Gpz4f7i ...

This is Wall Street Week. I'm David Westin, bringing you stories of capitalism. Gold is all over the place, from setting new records to plummeting, to a partial recovery. What does it mean for investors and for those getting the gold out of the ground? Plus, the US had its China shock 20 years ago. Is Europe in store for its own version this time as China looks to find new markets for its exports? And investing in art can be fun. It can be satisfying. But like any investment, it can go down as well as up. W ...

The admiral’s quiet diplomacy could be essential in addressing one of America’s big problems: trying to deter a Chinese attack on Taiwan https://t.co/fiHV11W8EA ...