[Music] I'm well aware of the irony of me giving a talk on hedging today because despite spending nearly all day every day researching and reading about gendered and intentional language, I still consistently use phrases like I think, maybe, and sort of in nearly every conversation I have. And I've always thought that was just me, my personality, my communication style, until one winter day in 2019 when I met up with two colleagues, Lynn and Emily, for a brew to talk about software design decisions. Because ...

Operational Highlights - Antero Resources achieved a 17% quarter-over-quarter increase in drillout feet per day[8] - The company also saw a 22% quarter-over-quarter increase in completion stages per day[8] - Antero set a company record for the longest lateral drilled, exceeding 22,000 feet[8] - Drillout feet per day reached 4,980[8] - Completion stages per day reached 14.5 per day, or 2,900 feet per day[8] Financial Performance & Strategy - Antero Resources generated nearly $600 million in Free Cash Flow year-to-date[19] - $242 million was allocated to acquisitions[20] - $184 million was used for debt repayment[20] - $163 million was spent on stock purchases[20] - The company has reduced its debt by approximately $2.5 billion since 2019[31] Hedging - For 4Q25, Antero has swaps at 100 BBtu/d at $3.12[24] - For 2026, Antero has collars at 500 BBtu/d with a floor of $3.14 and a ceiling of $6.31, and swaps at 600 BBtu/d at $3.82[24]

ETF Market & Strategy - The discussion revolves around buffer ETFs and whether the downside protection they offer is worth limiting potential gains [1] - Some ETFs are modifying their methodology to address criticisms regarding limited upside potential [2] - True Shares ETFs pioneered uncapped buffered ETFs, believing capturing upside events is as important as mitigating downside events for long-term returns [3] - True Shares ETFs use a traditional buffer with an uncapped upside capture or participation rate [4] Performance & Risk - In the 12 months following July 2020, the S&P 500 rose approximately 39%, while True Shares' buffered product returned close to 31%, outperforming peers capped in the teens [4] - Historically, the S&P 500 has returned over 17% roughly 34% of the time, with an average return of approximately 26% during those periods [5][6] - April (Liberation Day) was cited as a significant test for buffered ETFs, second only to the pandemic's early days [7] Future Discussion - The conversation will continue on ETFedge, featuring Tony Kelly from Bond Blocks discussing fixed income and buffers [8]

Geopolitical Risk - The industry is starting to hedge against the risk that America abandons it [1]

Market Activity - Four entities ("whales") borrowed $345 million worth of ETH from Aave [1] - The borrowed ETH was then transferred to Binance, presumably to establish short positions [1] - The borrowers are incurring $900 thousand monthly in borrow costs to maintain these positions [1] Potential Strategies - The willingness to pay substantial borrow costs suggests either a misjudgment of the market or a hedge against a significantly larger long position (10x bigger) [1]

Derivatives Basics - Derivatives are used for hedging, speculation, and leverage in investing [1] - Options, swaps, and futures are types of derivatives [1] Risk Management - Derivatives help manage risk [1] Investment Strategies - Derivatives can maximize returns [1]

Investment Strategies - The report discusses options for hedging against market swings [1]

Cost Analysis & Risk Management - Fertilizer costs represent a significant portion, 20% to 30%, of total crop production expenses for crops like corn and soybeans, posing a year-round financial risk for farmers [1] - Weather conditions, crop quality, market trends, and river levels can impact fertilizer needs and prices throughout the year, necessitating a proactive approach to fertilizer management [2] - Farmers are increasingly using the bushel-to-ton ratio to assess fertilizer costs relative to potential revenue from crops like corn and soybeans [3] Market Dynamics & Pricing - As of December 26, with corn priced at approximately $4.60 per bushel and URA at $400 per ton, a farmer would need to sell about 84 bushels of corn to purchase one ton of URA [4] - With November soybeans at roughly $10.70 per bushel, approximately 36 bushels of soybeans are needed to purchase one ton of URA [5] Hedging Opportunities - CME Group's introduction of a smaller 10-ton URA US Gulf futures contract provides farmers with a new avenue to hedge fertilizer costs [6]

The biggest take away for me is that prediction markets will ultimately be a source of truth.You'll have opportunities that show themself before anything else.Take the recent Japanese Prime Minister election, everything pointed toward Shinjiro Koizumi to win, however, markets showed Sanae Takaichi win before it was made public.On top of this the ability to hedge positions for trad-fi assets will outlast that of sports markets by 100x imo.There is no market where you can hedge your trad-fi equity exposure in ...

Simple minds reach simple conclusions.It’s very easy cherry pick negative outcomes or externalities, but a slight bit of creative and abundance mindset can make even this hypothetical a plausible hedging scenario with genuine financial value.Suppose you’re a vendor who has very low stock of Josh Allen jerseys due to global supply chain issues. You could hedge that low stock (resulting in lower sales potential) in case he does hit 2+ TDs by having “yes” exposure to that binary outcome.On the other side, supp ...