July 3, 2025 02:31 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy | Global Our Latest Views Morgan Stanley's top G10 FX strategy views including key fundamental catalysts and technical levels to watch. Key Takeaways USD View: Bearish | Skew: Bearish The USD sell-off should continue as technical forces from FX hedging and momentum play an increasing role. Stickier inflation reducing pricing for 2025 Fed cuts is unlikely to be USD-positive if joined by weak growth. EUR View: Bullish | Skew: Bullish EUR/USD's uptrend should continue ...

Dollar weakness continues to dominate our G10 FX views with US-RoW rate and growth convergence, as well as increased FX hedging, remaining in play. USD View: Bearish | Skew: Bearish The DXY should continue trading lower as US growth and rates converge to those of the rest of the world, and increased FX hedging adds risk premium to the USD. EUR View: Bullish | Skew: Bullish July 2, 2025 07:50 AM GMT Global Macro Strategy | Global G10 FX Chart Pack Top charts we are watching for each G10 currency with economi ...

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. June 30, 2025 01:19 PM GMT Morg ...

专题：2025基金年中大盘点：最高涨超88% 超120只基金清盘 2025年上半年已过，盘点黄金ETF基金表现，14只黄金主题ETF合计规模1488.99亿元，上半年合计新增793.40亿元。主要 为商品与股票型，跟踪指数SGE黄金9999、SSH黄金股票、上海金。 股票型ETF表现与金价关联性弱于商品型，更易受A股大盘及企业盈利影响。其相对较小的规模和部分产品微弱的资金流 入（如工银瑞信产品仅增0.03亿），表明投资者对"金矿股"的态度仍显谨慎。此类产品更适合看好黄金行业长期发展、且 能承受股市波动的投资者，当前市场对其弹性价值的挖掘尚未充分。 | | 代码 T | 简称 | 收盘价(原始市种) | 权事 | 温度 | 排放出 | 成交目(万) | 成交顾历) | 总股本(亿) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | edular see | 发会计业 | 19.90 | 11.9000% | 0.40 | 205% | 12,393,34 | 243,566.66 | 265.78 | | 2 | 600547 ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha June 29, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea Are Foreign Investors Fleeing US Assets? Investment flows, both from and into US assets, were a key theme in our client conversations in multiple meetings across the pond last week. While many questions concerned the tax provisions under Section 899 proposed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which have since been removed, the subtext was clear – are investors, particularly foreign investors, ...

we discuss ideas like this as they happen in more detail. All active investors are welcome to join on a free trial and ask any question in our chat room full of sophisticated traders and investors.This is yet another short article in our line of work dedicated to following most of the recently listed on the exchange fixed-income IPOs. This time, our attention will be focused on MicroStrategyDenislav leads the investing group Trade With Beta , features of the service include: frequent picks for mispriced pre ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown declining interest in oil stocks over the past year, with Devon Energy, Diamondback Energy, and Vitesse Energy experiencing stock price declines, yet they now offer attractive dividend yields and price-to-free cash flow multiples [1]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Oil Prices - The oil price environment has been volatile, particularly following geopolitical events such as Israel's attack on Iran, which caused a spike in oil prices [3]. - Prior to this spike, oil prices were trading in the low-to-mid $60 per barrel range, with negative sentiment driven by slower economic growth and OPEC's decision to increase production [5]. - The negative sentiment towards oil intensified after spring events, prompting companies to adjust their capital expenditures [7]. Group 2: Company Responses to Market Conditions - Vitesse Energy implemented a 32% cut in planned capital expenditures to preserve returns and maintain financial flexibility amid commodity price volatility [7]. - Diamondback Energy reduced its planned capital expenditures for 2025 from a range of $3.8 billion to $4.2 billion down to $3.4 billion to $3.8 billion [7]. - Devon Energy has not made specific adjustments but is monitoring the macro environment and retains flexibility in its capital programs [8]. Group 3: Hedging Strategies - Following the recent oil price spike, there was a significant increase in hedging activities among oil companies, with independent oil companies likely taking advantage of the price surge [9]. - All three companies have integrated hedging into their capital allocation strategies to ensure returns to investors through dividends and share buybacks [11]. - Vitesse had 61% of its remaining oil production hedged at an average price of $70.75 per barrel as of March [13]. - Diamondback has downside protection in place at $55 per barrel, allowing for upside exposure above this price [14]. - Devon Energy had over 25% of its expected 2025 oil production hedged, projecting significant free cash flow at various oil price levels [16]. Group 4: Dividend Security and Investment Opportunities - Diamondback and Devon Energy's dividends appear secure, with potential for increased discretionary dividends, share buybacks, or debt repayment [18]. - The hedging strategies employed by these companies enhance the security of their dividend payouts, providing passive income investors with confidence in their investments [18].

Core Insights - Vistra Corp.'s disciplined hedging strategy is fundamental to its financial strength and operational stability, with nearly 100% of anticipated 2025 generation volumes and around 90% for 2026 hedged as of May 2, 2025 [1][8] - The hedging approach allows Vistra to secure steady revenues and predictable margins, minimizing downside risks and supporting consistent financial performance in a volatile market [2][4] - The company's hedging program provides short-term earnings visibility while allowing for upside exposure to potential market strength beyond the hedge horizon [3][4] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vistra's earnings per share indicates an increase of 2.81% for 2025 and 2.84% for 2026 over the past 60 days [7] - Vistra's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) stands at 87.33%, significantly higher than the industry average of 10.09%, indicating effective utilization of shareholders' funds [8][11] Market Position - Vistra's shares have increased by 108.2% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Utility-Electric Power industry's growth of 18.3%, attributed to strong retail and commercial operations [11]

The company enjoys a decent financial position. As of March 31, 2025, AGNC Investment's liquidity, including unencumbered cash and Agency MBS, was $6 billion. The company's leverage increased modestly to 7.5X at the end of the first quarter (from 7.2X in the prior quarter). It has a long-term debt of $62 million as of the same date. Hence, given its decent liquidity profile, the capital distribution plan seems sustainable. The Case for ABR Key Takeaways Within the mREIT industry, AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC ...

Analyst's Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Long position through a purchase of the stock, or the purchase of call options or similar derivatives in DUK over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I am not ...