The biggest take away for me is that prediction markets will ultimately be a source of truth.You'll have opportunities that show themself before anything else.Take the recent Japanese Prime Minister election, everything pointed toward Shinjiro Koizumi to win, however, markets showed Sanae Takaichi win before it was made public.On top of this the ability to hedge positions for trad-fi assets will outlast that of sports markets by 100x imo.There is no market where you can hedge your trad-fi equity exposure in ...

Simple minds reach simple conclusions.It’s very easy cherry pick negative outcomes or externalities, but a slight bit of creative and abundance mindset can make even this hypothetical a plausible hedging scenario with genuine financial value.Suppose you’re a vendor who has very low stock of Josh Allen jerseys due to global supply chain issues. You could hedge that low stock (resulting in lower sales potential) in case he does hit 2+ TDs by having “yes” exposure to that binary outcome.On the other side, supp ...

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The U.S. government shutdown is expected to strengthen expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in an 88% chance of a cut in December [1] - The shutdown has led to 750,000 furloughs, increasing the likelihood of further easing by the Federal Reserve despite ongoing inflation concerns [1] - The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has lapsed, complicating approximately 1,400 property transactions daily and affecting buyers in high-risk areas [11] Mortgage Industry Developments - Marr Labs is utilizing AI to streamline the mortgage lifecycle, helping lenders reduce origination costs and improve borrower engagement [2] - Mission Servicing Residential is offering flexible execution options and operational efficiencies for mortgage servicing rights (MSR) purchasers [3] - Flyhomes provides a solution for borrowers facing home sale contingencies, allowing them to qualify for up to 50% more when purchasing a new home [6] Regulatory and Guidance Changes - Freddie Mac has issued alternative procedures for mortgage lenders to follow during the shutdown, including waiving employment verification for federal employees [9][10] - Ginnie Mae will continue to perform necessary functions to ensure market stability during the shutdown, including the issuance of mortgage-backed securities [12] Labor Market Insights - The September ADP private-sector jobs report indicated a loss of 32,000 jobs, highlighting a weakening labor market [14] - Despite the absence of key economic data due to the shutdown, the Federal Reserve is still expected to proceed with a 25-basis point rate cut [15] Mortgage Rate Trends - Mortgage rates have increased for the second consecutive week, with the 30-year and 15-year rates rising to 6.34% and 5.55%, respectively [16]

A notable transformation is happening in agricultural markets. A pronounced move towards shorterterm options. This shift reflects a new era where traders prioritize swift, precise risk management over longerterm exposure.A core aspect of this trend is the increasing preference for options with fewer days to expiration or DTE. Nearly 40% of grains and oil seed options volume is now traded at 30 DTE or less. While standard weekly options offer granular hedging opportunities, weekly and shortdated new crop opt ...

This story was originally published on CFO Dive. To receive daily news and insights, subscribe to our free daily CFO Dive newsletter. Dive Brief: The Financial Accounting Standards Board published updated guidance related to how to account for derivatives, hedging and revenue from contracts that clarifies the scope of the existing standards in the Topics 815 and 606, according to a Monday release from the U.S. accounting standards setter. Under exceptions outlined in the update, the new derivative accou ...

Bullish investors should keep hedging their portfolios as more and more people chase this year’s stock market rally, according to Nomura cross-asset strategist Charlie McElligott https://t.co/GfLn1T9oKo ...

A flurry of bets on European natural gas contracts is signaling some traders have already started hedging for the next stockpiling season https://t.co/ISbK6hkY3e ...

Core Viewpoint - With stock prices reaching record highs, there is a growing interest in hedging strategies to manage volatility, particularly as the cost of hedging remains low [1] Group 1 - Ron Albahary from Laird Norton is focusing on methods to hedge against market volatility [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Evolution Petroleum reported a net income of $3.4 million and adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 million, reflecting a material improvement driven by a balanced commodity mix and cost controls [4][16] - Total revenues for Fiscal Q4 2025 were $21.1 million, essentially flat year over year, with average production at 7,198 BOE per day [15][16] - Realized natural gas prices increased by 66% year over year, while oil prices declined by 20% and NGL prices declined by 12% [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company closed a $9 million TexMex acquisition, adding approximately 440 net BOE per day of stable, low-decline production [4][5] - The largest minerals-only acquisition in company history was completed, adding approximately 5,500 net royalty acres with roughly 420 net BOE per day [5][6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for oil is expected to grow at a steady rate of over 1% per year, with OPEC Plus adding back supply [7][8] - Natural gas demand is anticipated to increase due to new LNG exports and industrial demand related to power generation [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to maximize shareholder returns through durable free cash flow, reliable dividends, and accretive low-decline opportunities [11][19] - The capital allocation framework remains unchanged, focusing on maintaining conservative leverage and positioning the balance sheet for future opportunities [11][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the portfolio and future cash flows, highlighting the ability to adapt to market environments [11][19] - The company is well-positioned to accelerate growth with recent acquisitions and organic opportunities across its asset base [19] Other Important Information - A dividend of $0.12 per share was declared for Fiscal Q1 2026, marking the company's 48th consecutive quarterly dividend [18] - The company amended its senior secured reserve-based credit facility, establishing a $65 million borrowing base under a $200 million revolving credit facility [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Current run rates for Scoop Stack, Barnett, and Shabbaroo - Management indicated that production rates are in line with previous quarters, with Shabbaroo wells expected to decline approximately 50% over the first year [21][22] Question: CapEx outlook for Fiscal 2026 - The budget for Fiscal 2026 is estimated at $4-6 million, primarily for Scoop Stack and maintenance CapEx [24][25] Question: LOE expectations for Scoop Stack and Barnett - Management expects a material improvement in LOE for Scoop Stack due to the minerals acquisition, while Barnett's LOE is anticipated to decrease slightly [28][34]

Group 1 - The article focuses on Gladstone Investment Corporation (NASDAQ: GAIN) as a notable Business Development Company (BDC) and discusses its financial instruments and offerings [1] - The investing group Trade With Beta, led by Denislav, provides features such as frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of over 1200 equities, IPO previews, and hedging strategies [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of active investor participation and the availability of a chat room for discussions among sophisticated traders and investors [1][2] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific financial data or performance metrics related to Gladstone Investment Corporation [1][2][3] - There is no mention of any recent news events or market trends affecting the BDC industry or Gladstone Investment Corporation specifically [1][2][3]