Uh here to go out on that limb is Shri Kumar, the president of Shrikumar Global Strategy. Shri, it's great to have you back. Good to be back, Kelly.And yes, I am going out on a limb and on a record day to be talking about a 10% correction coming by the end of the year. But the various macro factors that I'm looking at seems to suggest that there is no way this situation can continue. What are they.We are looking at truths in a sense in three different areas. One is the Iran um and Israel war. The second is ...

Samuel Smith has a diverse background that includes being lead analyst and Vice President at several highly regarded dividend stock research firms and running his own dividend investing YouTube channel. He is a Professional Engineer and Project Management Professional and holds a B.S. in Civil Engineering & Mathematics from the United States Military Academy at West Point and has a Masters in Engineering from Texas A&M with a focus on applied mathematics and machine learning.Samuel leads the High Yield Inve ...

Samuel Smith has a diverse background that includes being lead analyst and Vice President at several highly regarded dividend stock research firms and running his own dividend investing YouTube channel. He is a Professional Engineer and Project Management Professional and holds a B.S. in Civil Engineering & Mathematics from the United States Military Academy at West Point and has a Masters in Engineering from Texas A&M with a focus on applied mathematics and machine learning.Samuel leads the High Yield Inve ...

Samuel Smith has a diverse background that includes being lead analyst and Vice President at several highly regarded dividend stock research firms and running his own dividend investing YouTube channel. He is a Professional Engineer and Project Management Professional and holds a B.S. in Civil Engineering & Mathematics from the United States Military Academy at West Point and has a Masters in Engineering from Texas A&M with a focus on applied mathematics and machine learning.Samuel leads the High Yield Inve ...

Group 1 - The Basic Materials and Utilities sectors are leading in 2025, with Basic Materials up over 10% [1] - The focus is on high-yield income opportunities with dividend yields ranging from 5% to 10% or more, supported by strong earnings [1] - The investment group Hidden Dividend Stocks Plus offers a portfolio with up to 40 holdings, a dividend calendar, and weekly research articles [1] Group 2 - Robert Hauver, known as "Double Dividend Stocks," has over 30 years of investment experience and focuses on undercovered and undervalued income vehicles [2]

Group 1 - The approach has received over 180 five-star reviews from members who are experiencing benefits [1] - The company invests significant resources, over $100,000 annually, into researching profitable investment opportunities [1] - High-yield strategies are offered at a fraction of the cost to members [1] Group 2 - Samuel Smith has extensive experience as a lead analyst and Vice President at dividend stock research firms [2] - He holds degrees in Civil Engineering & Mathematics and a Masters in Engineering with a focus on applied mathematics and machine learning [2] - The High Yield Investor group focuses on balancing safety, growth, yield, and value, offering various portfolio services [2]

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Group 1 - Samuel Smith has extensive experience in dividend stock research and investment, having served as lead analyst and Vice President at notable firms [1] - He is a Professional Engineer and Project Management Professional with degrees in Civil Engineering & Mathematics and a Master's in Engineering focused on applied mathematics and machine learning [1] - Samuel leads the High Yield Investor investing group, collaborating with Jussi Askola and Paul R. Drake to balance safety, growth, yield, and value in investment strategies [2] Group 2 - High Yield Investor provides real-money core, retirement, and international portfolios, along with regular trade alerts and educational content [2] - The service includes an active chat room for investors to share insights and strategies [2]

Group 1 - The article discusses a well-known Business Development Company (BDC) that is favored for its short-duration products with high yields [1] - Following a crash in the BDC sector, many companies experienced a significant decline in performance [1] - The investing group Trade With Beta offers features such as frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of over 1200 equities, IPO previews, and hedging strategies [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of active investor participation and offers a free trial for interested parties [1] - The analyst has disclosed a beneficial long position in shares of GAINI and GAINZ, indicating a personal investment interest [1]

Summary of High Yield and Leveraged Loan Strategy Deck Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **High Yield and Leveraged Loan** market, analyzing current trends, recommendations, and performance metrics. Key Points and Arguments Market Positioning - The company has adopted a more cautious stance due to increased policy risk, tighter financial conditions, and limited Federal Reserve capacity to respond to inflation uncertainty. This led to a shift in recommendations for Regular Way BB and B ratings, with BB now overweight and B underweight as of April 2025 [3][41]. - The energy sector was downgraded from overweight to underweight on May 8, 2025, due to economic uncertainty and OPEC+ supply concerns [3][41]. High Yield Factors and Valuations - The allocation and performance of various high yield factors are detailed, with specific weights and yields to worst (YTW) provided: - **Regular Way BB**: Overweight at 27.1%, YTW 6.35% - **Regular Way B**: Underweight at 23.7%, YTW 7.80% - **Regular Way CCC**: Overweight at 6.0%, YTW 10.62% [4][26]. Loan Market Recommendations - The company remains conservatively positioned in the loan market, favoring BBB/BB premium loans while underweighting distress and discount B-/CCC loans [5][10]. - The allocation for loans includes: - **BBB/BB Premium**: Overweight at 13.3% - **B+/B Discount**: Overweight at 26.8% [6][10]. Asset Allocation Changes - The bond allocation was raised to 55% while the loan allocation was reduced to 45% in April 2025, reflecting a belief that bonds offer better upside/downside potential compared to loans [7][72]. Performance Metrics - The report includes a performance summary for high yield and loan allocations, showing relative performance changes over several months, with a notable rebound post-rebalance in April 2025 [8][11]. Energy Sector Analysis - The energy sector is highlighted as a source of lower expected returns and higher volatility, with a negative convexity relative to commodity prices. The report notes that every energy subsector has widened more than the index year-to-date, indicating a lack of support in the secondary market [19][23][41]. - The report emphasizes the challenges faced by the energy sector, including a shift from backwardation to contango in oil futures, which could lead to production cuts from the U.S. oil industry [23][25]. Default Rate and Issuance Forecasts - Current forecasts predict a high yield issuance of $370 billion and loan issuance of $530 billion by the end of 2025, with default rates expected to be 1.8% for high yield and 7.3% for loans [17][17]. Conclusion and Outlook - The report concludes with a cautious outlook on speculative grade products, indicating that the recent spread back up is viewed as a new trading range rather than a ceiling. The tightening financial conditions and rising recession risks are highlighted as significant concerns for the market [104][104]. Additional Important Content - The report discusses the implications of a potential buyer vacuum in the lower quality loan market due to CLO managers' sensitivity to credit quality, which could create opportunities for distressed funds [36][41]. - The analysis of market structure changes indicates an improvement in credit quality, with BB ratings gaining market share, but warns that the current environment could lead to wider spreads in a downturn [56][72]. This comprehensive summary captures the essential insights and recommendations from the High Yield and Leveraged Loan Strategy Deck, providing a clear overview of the current market dynamics and future outlook.