Market Outlook & Economic Conditions - Uncertainty surrounding government shutdowns and Washington agreement weighs on investors, but underlying fundamentals are lifting markets [3] - Softening labor market and potential inflationary pressures due to tariffs create a complex situation for the Federal Reserve [8] - Political polarization in Washington can erode investor confidence [6] - Northern Trust Asset Management believes the odds of a US recession have decreased [10] Monetary Policy - The market anticipates potential Fed interest rate cuts due to uncertainty [7] - Northern Trust Asset Management expects the Fed funds rate to be approximately 100 basis points (1%) lower over the next 12 months [9] Investment Strategy - Northern Trust Asset Management favors risk assets (stocks) within a balanced portfolio [10] - Recently, the firm has increased exposure to the US market due to increased confidence in a soft landing [10] - Companies doubled earnings estimates last quarter, indicating a strong trend for the year ahead [11]

It's been a busy morning of private economic data. Getting some more. Let's get to Rick Santelli.Hey, Rick. >> Yes, Carl. These are ISM manufacturing PMI September final reads.And we see sub 50 on the headline. 49.1% largely expected. 49.1% would be the lightest going back to well uh going back to March, March of this year when it was 49.Even if we look at prices paid and of course we'd rather have this go down and reflect less inflationary pressures comes in it's 61.9% sequentially lower than 63.7% would b ...

Economic Data Summary - The ISM manufacturing PMI for September shows a headline reading of 49.1%, indicating contraction and the lowest level since March [1] - Prices paid index decreased to 61.9%, down from 63.7%, marking the second lightest number of the year [2] - New orders index fell to 48.9%, below expectations and lower than the previous month's 51.4%, the weakest since July [2] - Employment index recorded at 45.3%, better than the previous month's 43.8%, but still in contraction territory [3][4] - The employment index is the highest since May when it was 46.8% [4] - Interest rates are declining significantly due to weak ADP data, with expectations of a delayed jobs report [4]

Core Insights - US personal spending increased in August, surpassing forecasts, indicating steady underlying inflationary pressures [1] - Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose by 0.4% for the second consecutive month, reflecting consumer resilience [1] - The core personal consumption index saw a 0.2% increase from July, suggesting persistent inflation trends [1] Economic Impact - The data is significant for the Federal Reserve as it assesses monetary policy in light of consumer spending trends [1] - The steady rise in personal spending may influence future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [1] - The overall economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic due to the sustained consumer spending levels [1]

US personal spending rose in August by more than forecast as underlying inflationary pressures held steady, illustrating a resilient consumer. https://t.co/oiosTBqndm ...

Labor Market Trends - UK new hire wages increased at the slowest rate in over four years [1] - Cooling labor market is impacting inflationary pressures [1]

Market Trends - Gold experienced a weekly decline [1] - US President Trump's tariff agenda may create inflationary pressures in the US [1] Monetary Policy - Inflationary pressures could threaten rate cuts [1]

Business Performance - Traffic grew 20% on a three-year basis [1] - AUVs increased from 230% to 3 million over three years [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Macroeconomic uncertainty exists, creating a "fog" for consumers [1][2] - Shifting tariff policies contribute to this uncertainty [3] Cost Management - The company's supply chain team has been agile in mitigating cost pressures [4] - No inflationary pressures have been observed to date on the supply front [4] - The company is focused on offsetting inflationary pressures with efficiencies [5] Labor Market - No pressure on the labor front has been observed [4]

UK loses fewer jobs than expected, and Oasis fans inflationary pressures -- get briefed ahead of your morning calls with The London Rush https://t.co/QWvIncSsMt ...

Australia’s central bank is poised to deliver its third interest-rate cut this year as inflationary pressures ebb, while Governor Michele Bullock is expected to stick with her cautious stance on the monetary policy outlook https://t.co/jJTBjqOCoP ...