Market Analysis & Trends - The S&P 500 experienced a 20% drop and subsequently reached new all-time highs, highlighting a typical rally following such declines [2] - Markets tend to rise unless there's a specific reason for them to decline [4] - The S&P 500 generally trends upwards, mirroring the behavior of the money supply [6] - The current market movement shows similarities to the pattern observed in 1998, including a 20% drop followed by a surge to all-time highs [7][12] - Q3 (August/September) tends to be a period of market weakness [33][34][35] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate has remained relatively stable at 42%, a level that historically supports market growth [5] - The unemployment rate in 1998 was in a macro downtrend, contrasting with the current situation [22] - The recession in 2001 didn't begin until the unemployment rate reached 43%-44% [24] - The lowest unemployment rate in the dot-com era was 38%, while the current cycle saw it drop to around 34%, the lowest since 1969 [25] Investment Strategy - A 20% drop in the S&P 500 is considered a buying opportunity [28] - The S&P 500 divided by M2 is a useful indicator for identifying local tops and bottoms [26]

Market Analysis and Forecasts - Chamath Palihapitiya suggests a "free money trade" by being levered long, indicating potential for significant profits [1][12] - Trillions of dollars of "dry powder" are sitting on the sidelines, seeking investment opportunities [1][16] - The market is pricing in an over 80% chance that Jerome Powell does not cut rates at the next FOMC meeting [18] - Approximately 74 trillion dollars are currently in money market funds, representing an all-time high, suggesting investor patience [20] Bitcoin Analysis and Predictions - Bitcoin price could reach over $500,000 per coin by October 2025, based on historical data analysis [11] - Bitcoin ETFs are expected to facilitate Bitcoin's mainstream adoption [9] - Historical Bitcoin halving cycles have shown significant price appreciation: 45x after the first, almost 28x after the second, and almost 8x after the third [7] Monetary Policy and Economic Impact - The slowing and contraction of the money supply has stabilized the economy, leading to renewed investment in equity markets [14] - Cutting rates could incentivize investors to move money from money market funds to seek higher returns, increasing the velocity of money and boosting equity markets [17] - The global M2 money supply is increasing, driven by other countries already cutting rates [21]

From @WSJopinion: AI will likely begin to control the extension of credit, and in effect the money supply, in the next few years. That’s a major issue for the Fed, writes Derek Horstmeyer. https://t.co/PpwLT6JNTt ...