Core Viewpoint - Intuit (INTU) has experienced a significant decline of approximately 45% since July, primarily driven by a broader software sell-off that intensified from November 2025 [1] Company Performance - The decline in Intuit's stock price has been notable, with the majority of the drop occurring in the latter part of 2025 [1] Market Trends - The software sector is currently facing a sell-off, impacting various companies, including Intuit [1]

Core Viewpoint - Intuit (INTU) has experienced a significant decline of approximately 45% since July 2025, primarily driven by a broader software sell-off that intensified in November 2025 [1] Company Analysis - The decline in Intuit's stock price reflects broader market trends affecting the software industry, indicating potential challenges in the sector [1] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends and corporate earnings in evaluating investment opportunities within the software industry [1] Investment Strategy - The focus is on uncovering high-growth investment opportunities through rigorous financial modeling and quantitative research [1] - The approach combines risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, aiming to provide actionable insights for investors [1]

Core Insights - Fundsmith's equity portfolio is valued at approximately $19–20 billion, focusing on high-quality global consumer and technology franchises with strong pricing power and high returns on capital [1][2] - The portfolio structure remains stable, with significant trims in several mega-cap technology positions and selective additions to existing compounders [1][2] Portfolio Overview - Total Portfolio Value: ~$19–20 billion [2] - Top 10 Holdings account for approximately 65–70% of the portfolio [2] - Moderate turnover indicates rebalancing rather than a change in strategy [2] Major Holdings - Top Holdings & Weights: - Stryker (SYK): ~$1.70 billion (~8.6%) - IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX): ~$1.67 billion (~8.4%) - Alphabet (Class A) (GOOGL): ~$1.53 billion (~7.7%) - Microsoft (MSFT): ~$1.34 billion (~6.8%) - Visa (V): ~$1.32 billion (~6.7%) - Automatic Data Processing (ADP): ~$1.27 billion (~6.4%) - Waters (WAT): ~$1.19 billion (~6.0%) - Philip Morris International (PM): ~$1.17 billion (~5.9%) - Meta Platforms (META): ~$1.14 billion (~5.8%) - Marriott International (MAR): ~$1.10 billion (~5.6%) [2] Portfolio Adjustments - Major Trims: - Microsoft: Shares reduced by ~2.36 million (-48% QoQ) - Meta Platforms: Shares cut by ~2.01 million (-56% QoQ) - Philip Morris International: Trimmed by ~1.89 million shares (-21% QoQ) - Alphabet (Class A): Reduced by ~514k shares (-7.6% QoQ) [5] - Notable Adds: - Waters: Added ~347k shares (+9.6% QoQ) [5] - Smaller increases in Visa, Procter & Gamble, and Fortinet indicate steady compounding exposure [5] Investment Philosophy - Fundsmith emphasizes a quality-first investment approach, willing to rebalance positions based on valuations and portfolio risk without altering its core philosophy [2][7] - The recent adjustments reflect portfolio optimization rather than repositioning, maintaining a focus on exceptional businesses for long-term growth [8]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management in equity valuation and market trends to identify high-growth investment opportunities [1] Group 1: Company Expertise - The company has over 20 years of experience in quantitative research and financial modeling, focusing on equity valuation and market trends [1] - The company has developed expertise in both fundamental and technical analysis through leadership roles in model validation and stress testing [1] - The research approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation [1] Group 2: Research Focus - The company has a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis [1] - The goal is to provide actionable ideas for investors seeking to outperform the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Central Garden & Pet reported a decline in net sales for fiscal 2026 first quarter, primarily due to shipment timing shifts and ongoing portfolio optimization, but achieved improved gross margins and solid earnings per share [3][6][19] Financial Performance - Net sales totaled $617 million, down 6% year over year, attributed to retailer spring inventory shipment shifts and portfolio rationalization [2][6] - Non-GAAP gross margin improved by 100 basis points to 30.8%, driven by productivity gains and improved product mix [6][7] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS held steady at $0.21, above internal expectations, with GAAP diluted EPS at $0.11 [8][19] Segment Analysis - The Pet segment reported net sales of $416 million, down 3%, with strengths in rawhide and animal health, while the Garden segment saw net sales of $202 million, down 12%, affected by shipment timing and category exits [5][12] - The Garden segment experienced a small operating loss of $2 million compared to a profit of $2 million in the prior year, primarily due to shipment timing [13] Operational Initiatives - The company is transitioning to a more profitable direct export model in Europe and rationalizing lower-margin categories [2][19] - Central completed the tuck-in acquisition of Champion USA, enhancing its professional portfolio with environmentally responsible solutions [4][18] Balance Sheet and Capital Allocation - Cash and cash equivalents plus short-term investments totaled $721 million, with total debt at $1.2 billion and gross leverage at 2.9x [17] - The company repurchased approximately 660,000 shares for $18.5 million, with $28 million remaining under its authorization [17] Outlook - The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance for non-GAAP diluted EPS of at least $2.70 and expects capital expenditures of $50 million to $60 million [4][19] - Management indicated stronger shipment trends in January, consistent with the timing shift into the second quarter, and expects to remain active in M&A and share repurchases [20]

Financial Performance and Key Metrics - Adjusted EPS increased by 7% for the quarter and 14% for the first half, reflecting strong execution against market opportunities [6][10] - Revenue for the quarter was $5.4 billion, with EBITDA of $826 million and EBIT of $603 million, significantly higher than the prior year due to the Berry acquisition and improved productivity [9][10] - Free cash flow was $289 million for the quarter, with a quarterly dividend declared at $0.65 per share, up from the prior year [10][24] Business Line Performance - Global Flexible Packaging Solutions segment sales increased by 23% on a constant currency basis, driven primarily by the Berry acquisition, although volumes were down approximately 2% [19][20] - Global Rigid Packaging Solutions segment sales also increased significantly on a constant currency basis, with volumes flat compared to the prior year, excluding non-core businesses [21][22] - Focus categories such as pet food and meat proteins showed higher volumes, while other categories like liquids and unconverted film and foil experienced lower volumes [20][45] Market Performance - Volumes in developed regions like North America and Europe were down low- to mid-single digits, with Europe facing more challenges than North America [19][20] - Emerging markets showed low single-digit growth in Asia Pacific, offset by modestly lower volumes in Latin America [19][20] - The core portfolio's volume performance was approximately 1.5% lower than the prior year, with focus categories outperforming the broader portfolio [11][45] Company Strategy and Industry Competition - The company is focused on delivering core business, accelerating synergy realization, and optimizing its portfolio, which includes evaluating alternatives for $2.5 billion of non-core businesses [5][8] - The company aims to deliver at least $260 million of synergies in fiscal 2026 and a total of $650 million by fiscal 2028 [16][26] - The management emphasizes the importance of innovation and leadership positions in core categories to drive long-term consumer demand [11][12] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism for the second half, expecting volume performance to remain consistent with the first half, while focusing on cost control and productivity improvements [32][34] - The company reaffirmed its financial guidance for the fiscal year, with adjusted EPS expectations updated to $4.00-$4.15 per share [7][25] - Management noted that while the market environment remains challenging, there are opportunities for revenue synergies and improved performance in non-core businesses [34][50] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in reducing headcount by over 600 as part of its integration roadmap [13] - The acquisition of Berry has positioned the company as a global leader in consumer packaging and dispensing solutions, enhancing its competitive advantage [4][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for volume performance in the next two quarters - Management indicated that they expect volume performance to be consistent with the first half, with some potential for improvement driven by revenue synergies [32][34] Question: Initiatives for the fourth quarter and confidence in guidance - Management highlighted seasonality, synergy growth, and improvements in non-core businesses as key drivers for expected EBIT improvement in the second half [39][40] Question: Volume performance in major categories and market share - Management noted that overall company volumes were down 2.5%, with core portfolio volumes down 1.5%, indicating performance in line with broader industry trends [42][43] Question: EBIT contribution from non-core businesses in the second half - Management expects EBIT margins for non-core businesses to return to more traditional levels of 7%-8%, representing a $50 million improvement compared to the first half [51][52] Question: Impact of GLP-1 on nutrition business - Management acknowledged the potential structural headwind from increased GLP-1 use but emphasized their positioning to support customers in balancing price and volume [86][87]

Fiscal 2026 Second Quarter Results Peter Konieczny Chief Executive Officer Steve Scherger Chief Financial Officer 3 February 2026 5:30pm US EST 4 February 2026 9:30am Australian EDT 1 Disclaimers and Notes Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements Unless otherwise indicated, references to "Amcor," the "Company," "we," "our," and "us" in this document refer to Amcor plc and its consolidated subsidiaries. This document contains certain statements that are "forward-looking statements" within th ...

Core Insights - The company reported a net sales decline of 5.2% year over year, primarily due to the bakery business, with approximately $18 million of the revenue decline attributed to this segment [1][7] - Management highlighted a 200 basis-point improvement in consolidated gross margin to 27.9%, driven by early savings from Project Apollo, plant consolidation, and a favorable product mix [2][7] - The company achieved sales of $343.8 million and adjusted EBITDA of $27 million, reflecting a 7% increase compared to the prior year [3][7] Financial Performance - The company reported adjusted earnings per diluted share of $0.33, while reported earnings per diluted share were $0.05 due to one-time charges [15] - Operating cash flow for the quarter was $36 million, with capital expenditures of $19 million [17] - The company ended the quarter with $67 million in cash and no long-term debt, alongside approximately $210 million in borrowing capacity [5][17] Project Apollo and Cost Management - Project Apollo delivered over $3 million in net savings in Q1, with a reiterated target of $20 million run-rate savings [6][8] - The quarter included $6.1 million in non-recurring closure costs, with an expectation of an additional $5 million in FY26 [6][8] - Management expects portfolio optimization to result in an approximate 3% decline in sales for fiscal 2026 [7] Segment Performance - The food service segment saw a net sales decline of $19.7 million, or 8.3%, largely due to the lower-margin bakery business [10] - Retail net sales increased by $1.2 million, or 2.6%, driven by improved handheld volume [11] - Frozen beverage net sales remained flat at $78.7 million, with modest increases in beverage sales [12] Innovation and Market Outlook - The company has a robust innovation pipeline, with planned shipments including new pretzel varieties and Dippin' Dots products [19] - Management acknowledged weaker box office performance impacting sales but expressed optimism for fiscal 2026 based on improved trends [19]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 reached just over $7 billion, reflecting a mid-single-digit three-year growth CAGR [4] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter increased by 2% year-over-year to $1.8 billion, while distributable cash flow decreased by 4% to $1.4 billion due to increased interest expenses [16][17] - The company returned $1.2 billion to unit holders in distributions and unit repurchases during the quarter [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the crude oil and products logistics segment, adjusted EBITDA increased by $52 million year-over-year, driven by a revised FERC tariff and higher rates [13] - The natural gas and NGL services segment saw adjusted EBITDA decrease by $10 million year-over-year, primarily due to the divestiture of non-core assets and lower NGL prices [14] - Gathered volumes in the natural gas and NGL segment increased by 2% year-over-year, while processing volumes decreased by 1% [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Natural gas demand in the U.S. is anticipated to grow over 15% through 2030, driven by LNG export capacity expansion and rising power needs [5] - The company is focusing 90% of its growth capital on the natural gas and NGL services segment, particularly in the Permian and Marcellus basins [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to invest $2.4 billion in 2026 to support long-term structural growth, with a focus on natural gas and NGL value chains [5] - The capital plan includes significant projects like the Harmon Creek III gas processing complex and the Secretariat II processing plant, expected to deliver mid-teens returns [9][11] - The company aims to optimize its portfolio through divestitures of non-core assets to align future capital deployment with the strongest return opportunities [5] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the energy market and the company's ability to capture value from growth opportunities [8] - The company anticipates growth in 2026 to exceed that of 2025, driven by increased throughput on existing assets and new assets coming online [19] - Management expects to maintain a distribution growth rate of 12.5% for the next two years, supported by disciplined capital deployment [18] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of $2.1 billion and plans to utilize this cash in alignment with its capital allocation framework [17] - The company is focused on maintaining a leverage ratio below 4.0x and ensuring distribution coverage remains above 1.3 times [63] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about your confidence in the mid-teens return target for the project backlog? - Management emphasized strict capital discipline and the expectation of mid-teens returns from capital investments, supporting mid-single-digit growth [24] Question: Can you provide an update on the commercialization of the Northwind synergy projects? - Management noted that the Northwind sour gas facility is critical for future growth and will support both legacy and new volumes [28] Question: How do you view the new opportunities for LPG exports with the recent India-U.S. trade deal? - Management expressed strong demand for NGL and natural gas, viewing the trade deal as supportive of their long-term LPG export strategy [38] Question: Will you consider M&A opportunities in 2026 if the right opportunities arise? - Management confirmed they are open to M&A opportunities that meet their strict capital discipline and strategic alignment criteria [40] Question: How do recent consolidations in the upstream community affect your growth outlook? - Management indicated that recent consolidations do not pose immediate risks to contract renegotiations and will continue to be an important part of their portfolio [48] Question: Is the 2026 growth expectation inclusive of the headwind from the Rockies asset sale? - Management confirmed that the 2026 growth expectation accounts for the headwind from the Rockies asset sale [53] Question: How should we think about capital allocation and leverage moving forward? - Management reiterated their capital allocation philosophy, prioritizing maintenance capital, distribution growth, and growth capital while managing leverage [62]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.87 and full-year adjusted earnings per share of $3.43, with total segment operating profit of $821 million for the fourth quarter and $3.2 billion for the full year [5][12] - The trailing fourth quarter adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) was 6.3%, and cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $2.7 billion for 2025 [5][22] - The company achieved approximately $200 million in cost savings through portfolio optimization and simplification initiatives [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Ag Services and Oilseeds (AS&O) segment operating profit for the fourth quarter was $444 million, down 31% year-over-year, and for the full year, it was $1.6 billion, a decrease of 34% compared to 2024 [14] - The Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit for the fourth quarter was $299 million, down 6% year-over-year, and for the full year, it was $1.2 billion, down 12% compared to 2024 [18] - The Nutrition segment revenues were $1.8 billion for the fourth quarter, remaining relatively flat year-over-year, with human nutrition revenue increasing by 5% and animal nutrition revenue decreasing by 4% [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted that the operating environment throughout 2025 was challenging, but improvements in global trade relations and U.S. biofuel policy clarity are expected to support a more constructive market environment in 2026 [11][12] - The company anticipates positive economic opportunities for the industry and American farmers, which should drive additional long-term investments [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on five key growth areas: enhanced nutrition, biotics, biosolutions, precision fermentation, and decarbonization, each with different growth profiles and timelines for value creation [9][10] - The company aims to optimize its results in what is expected to be a more constructive operating environment, with a focus on disciplined capital allocation and cost savings [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, highlighting the importance of timing regarding U.S. biofuel policy clarity and its potential positive impact on operations [33][34] - The company expects adjusted EPS for 2026 to be in the range of $3.60-$4.25, reflecting growth over 2025 [12][27] Other Important Information - The company paid its 376th consecutive quarterly dividend during the fourth quarter [6] - The company has made significant progress in improving working capital efficiency, realizing a $1.5 billion cash flow benefit from inventory reduction [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on the RVO and its impact on operating rates - Management acknowledged the difficulty in providing guidance due to external factors but expressed optimism about the positive impact of RVO clarity on operating rates and margins [33][34] Question: Update on Nutrition segment performance and customer recovery - Management clarified that while the Nutrition segment faced challenges, there was strong performance in flavors and a recovery in specialty ingredients, with ongoing efforts to regain market share [41][42] Question: Insights on crush margins and demand - Management indicated that the crush margins are influenced by various factors, including RVO policy and consumer demand, and emphasized the need for careful monitoring of market conditions [58][60] Question: Discussion on Starches and Sweeteners demand - Management noted that demand softness is attributed to various factors, including consumer behavior changes and pricing pressures, but emphasized efforts to offset these challenges [65][66]