Ashique Habib SIP/2026/007 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on December 16, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No. 26/011. Golden Vision 2045: Reaping the Gains from Trade ABSTRACT: Indonesia has been pursuing a broad push towards greater trade openness with regional and global partners, seeking to leverage ex ...

Group 1: Market Reaction to Tariff Changes - US stocks experienced a significant decline following the Supreme Court's cancellation of a key part of President Trump's tariff policy, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 800 points, or 1.6% [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also fell by 1.2% and 1.3%, respectively, as investors reacted to the renewed trade tensions and potential AI losers [1][6] - The dollar slightly dipped, while gold prices increased by $100 to $5,226.90, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets amid market uncertainty [4] Group 2: Impact of New Tariffs - President Trump announced a new 15% global tariff under Section 122, following the Supreme Court's ruling that eliminated broad import taxes [2][3] - This new tariff policy has raised concerns among global partners, leading the EU to pause the approval of a recent trade deal with the US [3] - Economists from Goldman Sachs noted that much of the trade disruption had already been factored into major companies' operations, suggesting limited immediate impact on business investment [5][9] Group 3: Sector-Specific Performance - AI-related stocks faced significant losses, with CrowdStrike falling 8.4% and AppLovin dropping 8.2%, as fears grew over competition from new AI technologies [6][7] - Major airline stocks also declined due to adverse weather conditions, with United, American, and Delta falling by 4.8%, 4.5%, and 3.5%, respectively [6] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The 10-year Treasury bill borrowing rate decreased to 4.03% from 4.08%, reflecting a shift in sentiment regarding future interest rate decisions [8] - Goldman Sachs' research indicated that the effects of tariffs on inflation and growth remain largely unchanged, with most of the cost passthrough to consumer prices having already occurred prior to the Supreme Court ruling [10]

NEW YORK, Feb. 20, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- WhiteHorse Finance, Inc. ("WhiteHorse Finance" or the "Company") (Nasdaq: WHF) today announced that it will release its fourth quarter and full year financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025 on Monday, March 2, 2026. The Company will discuss its financial results on a conference call that day at 1:30 p.m. ...

分组1 - Howard Hughes Holdings reported quarterly earnings of $0.1 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.31 per share, and down from $3.25 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -67.74% [1] - The company posted revenues of $624.45 million for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.86%, but down from year-ago revenues of $983.59 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, Howard Hughes Holdings has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] 分组2 - The stock has added about 4.1% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.5% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.81 on revenues of $309.05 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $4.06 on revenues of $1.75 billion [7] - The Real Estate - Development industry, to which Howard Hughes Holdings belongs, is currently in the top 16% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating a favorable outlook compared to the bottom 50% [8]

I/O Fund Proves Leadership in AI Stocks with 326% Cumulative Return and 29.2% Annualized ReturnFeb 19, 2026 11:03 AM Eastern Standard Time# I/O Fund Proves Leadership in AI Stocks with 326% Cumulative Return and 29.2% Annualized ReturnShare---BOULDER, Colo.--([BUSINESS WIRE])--The I/O Fund has achieved a 326% cumulative return since its May 2020 debut, representing a 4.26x multiple. The team's 29.2% annualized return has outpaced both broad market indexes and institutional tech-focused funds.When excluding ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is closed on February 16, 2026, for Presidents' Day, while global markets show a positive tone with U.S. stock futures indicating optimism [1] - International indexes reacted positively to cooling U.S. inflation data, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 up 0.22%, India's NIFTY 50 up 0.83%, and European markets also opening higher [2] Futures Market - U.S. futures indicate a positive start for Tuesday, with S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures both rising 0.4%, supported by a CPI report showing headline inflation at 2.4%, the lowest since early 2021 [3] Upcoming Market Events - Investors are preparing for significant economic data and corporate earnings, with the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes to be released on Wednesday, focusing on potential rate cuts [4] - The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the advance estimate for Q4 GDP on Friday, with an expected annualized growth rate of 3%, down from 4.4% in Q3 [5] - Key earnings reports include Walmart on Thursday, Palo Alto Networks and Energy Transfer on Tuesday, and Occidental Petroleum and Booking Holdings on Wednesday [6] Major Stock News - Rivian Automotive shares surged over 26% following a new electric vehicle partnership and analyst upgrades, while Constellation Brands' stock fell 8% due to a leadership transition [7] - Nvidia shares dropped 2.2% amid concerns over AI capital expenditures, with other tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Google also facing pressure [8] - Coinbase Global shares increased by 16.5% after a strong quarterly update and a significant share buyback program [9] Commodities - Gold prices consolidated above $5,000 per ounce, driven by a softer inflation outlook and a weakening U.S. dollar [9]

Core Insights - Hercules Capital Inc. (HTGC) reported a fourth-quarter 2025 net investment income of 48 cents per share, meeting the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but reflecting a 2% decline year-over-year [1][8] - The total investment income for the fourth quarter was $137.4 million, a 12.8% increase from the previous year, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate [3][8] - Operating expenses rose significantly by 26.3% year-over-year to $54.9 million, impacting the bottom line [4][8] Financial Performance - For the full year 2025, net investment income was $1.91 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by one cent, and declined 4.5% from the previous year [2] - Total investment income for the full year reached $532.5 million, a 7.9% increase year-over-year, also exceeding estimates [3] Portfolio and Commitments - As of December 31, 2025, the fair value of Hercules Capital's total investment portfolio was $4.47 billion [5][6] - The company made $1.1 billion in gross new debt and equity commitments during the fourth quarter, with $522.3 million in gross new funding [5] Balance Sheet Position - Hercules Capital's net asset value increased to $12.13 per share from $11.40 a year earlier [6] - The company had $525.5 million in liquidity, including $57 million in unrestricted cash and cash equivalents [6] Market Outlook - Rising demand for customized financing is expected to support Hercules Capital's total investment income, although limited global diversification may restrict growth [7] - Efforts to enhance originations are likely to keep expenses high, which could hinder bottom-line growth [7]

Company Overview - Textron Inc. is based in Providence, Rhode Island, and operates in the aircraft, defense, industrial, and finance sectors globally, with a market capitalization of $17.1 billion. The company has six segments: Textron Aviation, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, Textron eAviation, and Finance [1]. Stock Performance - Textron's shares have outperformed the broader market over the past year, surging 35.7%, while the S&P 500 Index has increased by nearly 12.9%. Year-to-date, Textron stock is up 13.3%, contrasting with a slight dip in the S&P 500 [2]. - The company has also outperformed the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF, which gained about 48.7% over the past year and 8.3% year-to-date [3]. Financial Performance - In the fourth quarter, Textron reported a revenue increase of 16% year-over-year to approximately $4.2 billion, with adjusted EPS rising roughly 29% to $1.73. This growth was driven by higher aircraft deliveries at Textron Aviation and strong military demand at Bell, supported by operational improvements and easing supply-chain constraints. However, the positive results were overshadowed by a softer outlook for 2026, with adjusted EPS guidance of $6.40–$6.60 and warnings of lower manufacturing cash flow due to increased investment in the MV-75 program [5]. - For the current fiscal year ending in December, analysts expect Textron's EPS to grow by 7.1% to $6.53 on a diluted basis. The company has a strong earnings surprise history, beating consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters [6]. Analyst Ratings - Among the 16 analysts covering Textron stock, the consensus rating is a "Moderate Buy," consisting of five "Strong Buy" ratings and 11 "Holds" [6]. - Recently, Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu reiterated a "Buy" rating on Textron while adjusting the price target to $110 from $115, indicating a tempered valuation outlook but maintaining a positive investment stance. The current trading price is above the mean price target of $97.86, with a Street-high price target of $115 suggesting an upside potential of 16.5% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of AI technologies, such as Seedance 2.0, is causing anxiety in various industries, including film, as it raises concerns about job displacement and changing work standards [1][10]. Group 1: Job Landscape Changes - There is a common misconception that AI is replacing jobs; however, many layoffs are due to post-pandemic adjustments rather than AI capabilities [3]. - AI can cover 30% to 40% of standardized tasks, leaving 60% to 70% still requiring human involvement, which highlights the importance of adapting to new work standards [4][7]. - The ability to utilize AI effectively creates a significant efficiency gap between those who can and those who cannot [5][9]. Group 2: Skill and Decision-Making Shifts - The demand for decision-making skills has increased, as AI accelerates execution but does not enhance decision-making speed [15][18]. - The ratio of engineers to product managers in Silicon Valley has shifted dramatically from 8:1 to as low as 1:1, indicating a change in bottlenecks from execution to decision-making [13][14]. - Skills that were once valuable, such as memorizing complex syntax, are becoming less important as AI can perform these tasks more accurately [16]. Group 3: Organizational Transformation - Many companies struggle with AI transformation because they focus on local optimizations rather than rethinking entire processes [20][21]. - Successful organizations are those that redefine their product offerings and service paths around AI capabilities, rather than merely using AI as an efficiency tool [22][23]. - The challenge lies in overcoming resistance from leadership, who may fear that AI implementation signals impending layoffs [25]. Group 4: Future of Work - The nature of work is evolving, with individuals now expected to manage entire processes with the assistance of AI [28][32]. - The difficulty in finding jobs stems from outdated methods that no longer meet current expectations [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates a broadening bull market, shifting focus from mega-cap tech to under-owned small-cap sectors, with a strong conviction in small-cap stocks for the upcoming year [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP is projected to grow at 2.6% for 2026, supporting the transition towards small-cap stocks as a high-conviction strategy [2][8]. - A "run it hot" economy is expected to sustain equity prices, particularly benefiting small-cap stocks due to lower interest rates and increased demand from GDP growth [3][4]. Small-Cap Performance - The iShares Russell 2000 ETF has risen 17% since its November low, outperforming the S&P 500, which only gained 1.9% [6]. - The S&P Small Cap Index is experiencing its best earnings revisions breadth since August (+7%) and strongest EPS growth since 2022 (+10%) [7]. Market Dynamics - The removal of Chairman Jerome Powell and the nomination of Kevin Warsh, who may adopt a more dovish monetary policy, have contributed to a rally in small-cap stocks [5]. - Market breadth is improving, indicating positive momentum across various sectors, which is historically favorable for the stock market [8]. Earnings Momentum - Fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth is projected at 13%, with 59% of companies reporting results, indicating a potential for a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth [8]. Valuation Trends - Mega-cap technology's revenue growth expectations are at a multi-decade high of 18%, yet forward P/E ratios have decreased to 27, placing them in the 12th percentile since early 2003 [8].