Group 1 - Apollo Global Management, Inc. (APO) shares have declined approximately 20% over the past year despite strong fundraising results [1] - Concerns are rising regarding private equity and credit markets, with additional worries emerging in the software sector [1]

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Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Germany's GDP growth in 2025 was 0.2%, recovering from contractions in 2023 and 2024, with inflation easing to 1.8% in December 2025, suggesting potential for interest rate cuts in 2026 to stimulate growth [8] - Venture capital activity in Germany reached €2.1 billion across 158 transactions in Q4 2025, with a notable increase in deal value but a decrease in deal count compared to the previous quarter [9] - Private equity investment totaled €18.5 billion across 196 deals in Q4 2025, indicating a year-over-year increase in overall activity, with significant deals highlighting the appetite for global private equity investments [10] - The DAX 40 index returned 23% in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500, driven by strong performances in utilities, industrials, and financials [11] - The German government launched a €30 billion Deutschlandfonds to mobilize private capital for higher-risk projects, aiming to boost investment in infrastructure, technology, and defense [12] Market Overview - In Q4 2025, venture capital deal value was €2.1 billion, while private equity deal value was €18.5 billion, with median deal values of €43.8 million for venture capital [6][10] - The number of German unicorns reached a record high of 22, valued at an aggregate €88 billion by the end of 2025 [9] - PE-backed public listings have been rare, with only six fund closures in 2025, down from 14 in 2024, and capital raised in private equity was €3.4 billion, the lowest since 2022 [10] Venture Capital Activity - Major Q4 2025 VC deals included €308 million for Tubulis and €259.4 million for Black Forest Labs, indicating continued funding for mature companies [9] - VC exit activity was flat at €1.2 billion across 27 exits, with the acquisition of Cognigy by NiCE being a notable transaction [9] Private Equity Activity - The standout Q4 deal was the €7.7 billion carveout of BASF's coatings business, reflecting strong interest from US investors, who participated in 42.4% of PE deal value in Germany [10][71] - PE exit value fell to €6.5 billion in Q4, with notable exits including the sale of Xella for €1.9 billion [10][75] Public Equity Markets - The DAX 40's P/E ratio increased to 19.1x in Q4 2025, up from 12x in Q4 2023, indicating rising valuations in the public equity market [11] City Comparison - Berlin led in VC deal value with €36 billion and 4,064 deals, while Munich followed with €14.4 billion across 1,649 deals [17]

Hundreds of private equity firms are now drowning in a sea of competition, searching for lifeboats of new capital as they cling to portfolios of nearly unsaleable investments. Meanwhile, their investors are losing patience.Read the full story: https://t.co/rUBEqqpAG6Illustration: Zohar Lazar for Forbes ...

Hundreds of private equity firms are now drowning in a sea of competition, searching for lifeboats of new capital as they cling to portfolios of nearly unsaleable investments. Meanwhile, their investors are losing patience.Read the full story: https://t.co/rUBEqqpAG6Illustration: Zohar Lazar for Forbes ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - 2025 was a record year for the company, with fee-related earnings (FRE) up 12% year-over-year, reaching a margin of 47% [5][17] - Total inflows amounted to $54 billion, significantly exceeding the original target of $40 billion, representing a 32% increase year-over-year [5][18] - Distributable earnings (DE) for 2025 were $1.7 billion, or $4.02 per share, an 11% increase from the previous year [16][17] - Total fee revenues reached a record $2.6 billion for the full year, reflecting a 10% organic growth rate [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Carlyle AlpInvest generated a record $274 million of FRE for the year, up nearly 60% [19] - Global Credit delivered a record $402 million of FRE for 2025, up 21% from the prior year [21] - Global private equity realized over $18 billion of proceeds in 2025, the highest level in the past three years [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company was the number 1 private equity sponsor globally by IPO proceeds, generating approximately $10 billion of IPO issuance over the past two years [7][8] - The IPO of Medline raised over $7 billion, marking it as the largest sponsor-backed IPO of all time [8] - CLO inflows of $7 billion in 2025 were up almost 20% from the prior year, with the company being the most active CLO manager for U.S. activity [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to continue building on its strategy of investment performance, disciplined capital allocation, and delivering long-term value for investors [14] - There is a strong focus on expanding in global wealth, insurance solutions, and asset-backed finance, with significant opportunities identified in each area [17] - The company plans to host a shareholder update to share multi-year financial targets and insights into its strategic direction [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macro environment in 2025 was resilient despite geopolitical concerns, with M&A and IPO activity accelerating [7] - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of monetization momentum into 2026, citing strong January data from their portfolio [29] - The economic engine appears strong, with good GDP growth and EBITDA generation expected [29] Other Important Information - The company returned $18 billion of capital to investors in 2025, consistent with the previous year [9] - The balance sheet remains strong, with $2 billion in cash and over $3 billion in investments [22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on sustainability of monetization momentum into 2026 - Management is optimistic about the sustainability of monetization momentum, citing strong January data and good economic indicators [29] Question: State of play in direct lending and credit quality - Management feels well-positioned in direct lending and has been systematic in building their credit business, which is diversified and durable [36][38] Question: Expectations for management fee growth in 2026 - Management indicated that detailed insights will be provided in the upcoming shareholder update, but they are confident in their diversified fundraising pipeline [58] Question: Exposure to software in CLOs and impact of recent volatility - Management stated that their CLO performance has been strong and does not expect recent market volatility to affect them significantly [61] Question: Steps to enhance originations in the credit business - The company has made significant hires to enhance its origination capabilities and achieved record originations in 2025 [95]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - 2025 was a record year for the company, with fee-related earnings (FRE) up 12% year-over-year, reaching a margin of 47% [4][15] - Total inflows amounted to $54 billion, significantly exceeding the original target of $40 billion, and representing a 32% increase year-over-year [4][16] - Distributable earnings (DE) for 2025 were $1.7 billion, or $4.02 per share, an 11% increase from the previous year [13][15] - Total fee revenues reached a record $2.6 billion for the full year, reflecting a 10% organic growth rate [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Carlyle AlpInvest generated a record $274 million of FRE for the year, up nearly 60% [17] - Global Credit delivered a record $402 million of FRE for 2025, up 21% from the prior year [18] - Global private equity realized over $18 billion of proceeds in 2025, the highest level in the past three years [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company was the number 1 private equity sponsor globally by IPO proceeds, generating approximately $10 billion of IPO issuance over the past two years [5][6] - The IPO of Medline raised more than $7 billion, marking it as the largest sponsor-backed IPO of all time [6] - Direct lending had a record quarter of originations, with CLO inflows of $7 billion in 2025, up almost 20% from the prior year [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on investment performance, disciplined capital allocation, and delivering long-term value for global investors and shareholders [11] - Strategic investments have been made in global wealth, insurance solutions, and asset-backed finance, with significant opportunities for continued growth [15] - The company plans to host a shareholder update to share multi-year financial targets and insights into its strategic direction [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Despite recent market volatility, management remains optimistic about the economic engine, citing strong January data indicating good GDP growth and EBITDA generation [25][26] - The company expects continued growth supported by a diversified fundraising pipeline and improving capital markets conditions [20] - Management acknowledges the complexity of the macro environment but believes it is generally constructive for deployment and realization activity [20] Other Important Information - The company returned a record $1.2 billion of capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks during 2025 [19] - The balance sheet remains strong, with $2 billion in cash and over $3 billion in investments [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on sustainability of monetization momentum into 2026 - Management is cautious about extrapolating recent market volatility but notes that January data looks promising for GDP growth and margins [25][26] Question: State of play in direct lending and credit - Management feels well-positioned in direct lending and has added key leaders to enhance origination and integration across private credit strategies [32][34] Question: Expectations for management fee growth in 2026 - Management will provide more details in the upcoming shareholder update but emphasizes the diversification in business mix driving success [52][78] Question: Outlook for CLOs in 2026 - The CLO business has performed well, and management expects another active year, although it may not reach the record levels of the past two years [83] Question: Steps to enhance originations in the credit business - The company has built a strong origination team and achieved record originations in 2025, with plans to continue leveraging its capabilities [88][90]