Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's future rate cuts are not guaranteed, with Chair Powell emphasizing that December is "far from a foregone conclusion" [2][3] - The market's previous assumption of a 90% certainty for a rate cut in December should be reconsidered, with a suggested probability of 50/50 [3] Treasury Yields - The 2-year Treasury yield has only decreased by 5 basis points since the Fed began cutting rates, despite a total cut of 150 basis points [4][5] - The 10-year Treasury rate has increased since the first rate cuts, indicating a steepening yield curve [4][6] Financial Asset Performance - Financial assets have experienced significant rallies this year, with the U.S. stock market, European markets, and emerging markets all performing well [6] - The investment-grade bond index is having its 11th best year in the last 49 years, following a poor performance in 2022 [7] Federal Reserve Strategy - The Fed plans to reinvest maturing mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills, aiming to reduce the duration of its balance sheet [8] - This strategy may help lower interest expenses on the national debt, which exceeds $38 trillion [8] Housing Market Concerns - Despite a decrease in inflation levels, housing affordability remains a significant issue, with home prices and mortgage rates higher than five years ago [9] - There is speculation that the Fed may consider purchasing mortgage-backed securities to lower yields compared to Treasuries in the intermediate term [10]

TLDR- No data = no cut in December- Job market is cooling. That’s not great- Housing market still too high.- Quantitative Tightening ends Dec 1- Quantitative Easing should start shortly after.Buy Dips.Sell once Fed signals Rate Cuts are ending (mid next year).Enjoy profits in 2027 bear.Easy (@EasyEatsBodega):FOMC Recap n where the markets are headed- Short term, chop, and leverage traders will be smoked. No data means markets only trade on news. Rough.- Powell said QT is done December first. That means 1 th ...

Ah yeah lets "derisk" a 98% chance rate cut rolling into QEspot and chill lads. infinite money printing starts again very very soon ...

The U.S. central bank seems almost certain to cut interest rates on Wednesday but it’s unclear whether bankers will end quantitative tightening (QT) and what its impact might be on crypto markets, analysts told Decrypt. QT is when the Federal Reserve reduces the amount of money in the financial system by letting its bond holdings shrink—pulling cash out of circulation to cool the economy and fight inflation. It’s the opposite of quantitative easing (QE), when the Fed pumps money in by buying bonds. Crypt ...

The Federal Reserve is making loans cheaper. The federal funds rate is currently around 4.11%. By the end of 2026, this rate is expected to fall below 3.5%.Wall Street is excited, but middle class Americans aren't likely to benefit much from this decline in interest rates. Low rate and high liquidity environments benefit the guys who have money in markets, benefit the guys who already have the wealth. The top 0.1%: they have seen their wealth nearly double since 2020 to over $23 trillion.Stocks accounted fo ...

We recently talked about how the Fed is going to make us rich. Now, that might be a broad statement. You might even say, "Well, Nick, that's just clickbait." However, all of the factors around what the Fed is doing currently, if we compare it to previous cycles, it has led to prices in this market going absolutely parabolic and melting faces.I don't believe that this time around is different. In fact, I do believe that we are going to see that same exact reaction but on a bigger scale. Let's take a quick lo ...

The crypto market has been chopping ever since the big sell-off for most of the month of October. I mean, we really haven't seen any significant price action so far this month and we have just been waiting patiently for that. Now, currently, if we are looking at the charts, which right now it's early morning right before the markets open around stocks.So, you know, price action will most likely change a bit by the time that this video does go live. However, right now, currently, most of the space isn't real ...

As governments across the developed world struggle to rein in swelling debt, economists are revising their views on the long-term costs of prior quantitative easing programs https://t.co/yAG44tK6Rt ...

Industry Overview - The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecasts an increase in total single-family mortgage origination volume to $2.2 trillion in 2026, up from $2.0 trillion in 2025, with purchase originations expected to rise by 7.7% to $1.46 trillion and refinance originations projected to increase by 9.2% to $737 billion [1] - Total mortgage origination volume is anticipated to grow by 7.6% to 5.8 million loans in 2026 from 5.4 million loans in 2025 [1] Technology and Innovation - MortgageFlex has launched a cloud-native Loan Origination System (LOS) called LoanQuest, which offers flexibility, scalability, and automation, aiming to redefine the origination experience for lenders [4][5] - Figure has developed an end-to-end DSCR origination platform that allows for quick eligibility determination and closing in as few as 5 days, enhancing efficiency in the DSCR loan market [6] Regulatory Updates - The mortgage lending sector is facing numerous regulatory changes, including updates from the CFPB and new cybersecurity requirements from Fannie Mae, necessitating financial institutions to stay informed on compliance [2] Market Trends - The DSCR loan market is experiencing significant growth, with over $2 billion in loans originated in January alone, highlighting the competitive edge for lenders who can close quickly [6] - The NAHB Housing Market Index improved to 37 in October, indicating a boost in builder sentiment due to lower mortgage rates, although it remains below the 2015-2019 average [14] Agency News - Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are transitioning agency products into private label securities while assuring that any move away from conservatorship will minimize increases in mortgage rates [9][10] - Freddie Mac has introduced a "Refi Transition Report" and both agencies are focusing on the concentration of servicing in non-depository institutions [11] Economic Insights - The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) is seeking public feedback on its proposed Strategic Plan for FY 2026–2030, which includes overseeing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and managing U.S. Federal Housing Operations [12] - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release consumer price index figures for September, which will inform the Federal Reserve ahead of its monetary policy meeting [16]

Core Insights - Ray Dalio's book "How Countries Go Broke" outlines the cyclical nature of debt crises, driven by human behavior and historical patterns [1][2] - The Big Debt Cycle typically spans around 80 years, reflecting generational forgetfulness of past mistakes [2][3] - Central banks play a crucial role in managing these cycles, though their interventions can sometimes exacerbate the situation [3][5] Debt Cycle Phases - The Big Debt Cycle consists of five stages: sound money, debt bubble, bubble pop, deleveraging, and new equilibrium [4][5] - The first phase (1945-1971) was characterized by a linked monetary system under Bretton Woods, which ultimately failed due to inflation and excessive credit growth [7] - The second phase (1971-2008) saw a shift to a fiat money system where the Federal Reserve controlled credit through interest rates [8] - The third phase involved debt monetization through quantitative easing, which was initially seen as a temporary measure during the Great Financial Crisis [9][10] - The fourth phase, initiated in 2020, features coordinated fiscal deficits and debt monetization, significantly increasing government debt [11][12] - The fifth phase, termed "A Big Deleveraging," occurs when debt levels become unsustainable, necessitating debt restructuring or monetization [13][14] Policy Responses - Policymakers have four main levers to reduce debt burdens: austerity, debt defaults/restructurings, central bank interventions, and wealth transfers [14][15] - Austerity measures often fail to balance debt and income, leading to further economic pain [15][16] - The concept of "a beautiful deleveraging" is proposed as a balanced approach to manage debt burdens while stimulating economic growth [22][23] - This approach involves restructuring debts and central bank actions to create a nominal economic growth that outpaces interest rates [23][24]