Monetary Policy & Liquidity - The market anticipates a 25bps (0.25%) rate cut by the FOMC, but this is already factored into prices [1] - The end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) does not equate to the start of Quantitative Easing (QE), implying continued tight monetary conditions [1] - Liquidity is diminishing, and despite calls for new liquidity injections, the FED is unlikely to initiate QE soon, given inflation is 50% above the target, unless a major crisis occurs [1] - The FED has historically only printed money during crises, and a crisis is currently brewing in the REPO market [2] - Repo facilities are strained, overnight funding is collapsing, and liquidity stress is spreading throughout the system, indicating a very low amount of available cash [2] Market Outlook - The author maintains a short position on BTC and Stocks, expecting no sustainable strength [1][2] - The author's short orders for BTC are stacked between 116,700–117,200, primarily in USDT [2] - The expectation is that euphoria will fade, liquidity will vanish, and the system will crack, prompting the Fed to print again [2]

🇺🇸 FED will cut rates today 2pm ETIf they end QT, Market will explode https://t.co/b2zQPmOfhO ...

🇺🇸 The FED FOMC rate cut decision will be announced tomorrow at 2pm ET.The market is expecting a 25 bps rate cut at this meeting, so it won't impact the market much.What's even more important is Powell's speech, which will start at 2:30pm ET.The job market is already cooked, and last week's CPI also came lower than expected.Along with that, US economic activity is also slowing down due to the government shutdown.All these things are enough for Powell to be dovish, but there's more to it.For the first time i ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the impact of tariffs, inflation, and interest rates in the US and global markets. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact on Prices** - Evidence suggests that tariffs imposed by the US are exerting upward pressure on goods prices, but other factors are outweighing these inflationary pressures [1][8][9] 2. **Customs Receipts** - Customs receipts into the US Treasury are on track to achieve the largest monthly collections ever, with $64 billion in Q2 2025 and $87 billion in Q3 2025, indicating a significant increase compared to previous quarters [8][13] 3. **Inflation Trends** - Headline CPI inflation year-over-year has been lower than consensus expectations, with a 20 basis point (bp) decrease over the past six months [9][24] - Nonfinancial corporate profits per unit of real gross valued added (GVA) have declined, indicating recession risk territory [15] 4. **Corporate Cost Management** - Companies are faced with higher nonlabor costs without unit pricing power, which may lead to lower unit labor costs to mitigate profit declines [8][15][19] 5. **Economic Growth and Demand** - Real GDP growth has slowed to a 1.6% annualized rate since the start of the year, below potential growth estimates, which may affect inflation expectations [15][24] 6. **Interest Rate Strategy** - The US Federal Reserve is expected to continue quantitative tightening (QT) while managing repo rates, with a focus on the implications of the Treasury General Account (TGA) on funding conditions [27][30] 7. **Global Macro Strategy** - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic factors beyond tariffs, as they increasingly influence investment decisions [1][9] Additional Important Content 1. **German Fiscal Announcement** - The rise in deficit-to-GDP ratios in Germany is seen as positive for growth, with less pressure on the bond market due to non-central government funding sources [4][45] 2. **Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Issuance** - Political uncertainty in Japan is shifting towards policy uncertainty, with misconceptions about JGB market issuance being addressed [5][52] 3. **STRIPS Market Growth** - The STRIPS market has reached $1 trillion outstanding, driven by strong demand for duration from fully funded pensions [54] 4. **Market Reactions to Economic Data** - The market's focus is shifting towards macro data, with expectations of further easing from central banks based on recent economic indicators [62] 5. **Currency Strategies** - The report outlines bearish views on the USD against several currencies, anticipating a decline in USD/CAD and other pairs due to macroeconomic conditions [63][68] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic landscape, corporate strategies, and market expectations.

Summary of Key Points from the Federal Reserve Monitor - October FOMC Preview Industry Overview - The document focuses on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, specifically regarding interest rates and balance sheet normalization in the context of the U.S. economy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Expectations**: The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 3.75-4.0% and maintain an easing bias, indicating further rate cuts may follow [5][7][12] 2. **Balance Sheet Normalization**: The Fed is anticipated to announce the end of quantitative tightening (QT) in January 2026, effective from February 2026, with risks leaning towards an earlier announcement in October or December [5][8][67] 3. **IORB Adjustments**: An additional reduction of 5bp in the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) is expected in either October or December, preparing for the end of QT [5][9][33] 4. **Funding Market Conditions**: Current conditions in funding markets are attributed more to the frequency and size of net U.S. Treasury settlements rather than a liquidity shortage, allowing the Fed to continue QT [5][9] 5. **Foreign Exchange Outlook**: The October meeting is not expected to significantly impact the U.S. dollar (USD), with a bearish outlook as the Fed cuts rates and U.S. real rates decline [5][9] Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Data Constraints**: The ongoing government shutdown limits the availability of economic data, which may affect the Fed's guidance beyond year-end [5][13][39] 2. **Labor Market Concerns**: There are indications of a softening labor market, with recent employment data showing a decline in private employment and a decrease in the labor market differential [15][19][20] 3. **Inflation Trends**: Inflation expectations remain stable, with the Fed's target of 2% being closely monitored, and recent data suggesting inflation may firm slightly [20][24] 4. **Communication Strategy**: The Fed's communication strategy will be crucial in managing market expectations regarding future rate cuts and the overall economic outlook [38][40] Conclusion - The Federal Reserve is poised to implement further rate cuts in response to economic conditions, with a focus on balancing risks to employment and inflation. The end of QT is on the horizon, and the Fed's communication will play a vital role in shaping market perceptions and expectations moving forward.

Market Analysis & Prediction - The analysis suggests Bitcoin dominance is poised for an explosive move above 60% [1] - The analyst believes that understanding Bitcoin dominance is key to success in the cryptoverse [3] - The report anticipates that those expecting a rejection of Bitcoin dominance at the bull market support band will be mistaken, favoring liquidity flowing back to Bitcoin [9] - The analysis draws parallels with 2017, 2019 and 2020, noting similar patterns in Bitcoin dominance around October, suggesting a potential rally into the year-end [9][10][12][15] - The analyst argues that narrative follows price, not the other way around, minimizing the need to justify views based on the news cycle [8] Monetary Policy Impact - The analysis suggests that rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may not necessarily be bearish for Bitcoin dominance unless they fall below the theoretical neutral rate, approximated by the 2-year yield (around 35%) [17][18][19][20][26] - The report notes that the market (specifically the 2-year yield) dictates the Fed's actions, and the Fed is currently behind in responding to market signals [23][24][26] - The analysis indicates that if the Fed announces the continuation of quantitative tightening (QT) on the 29th, Bitcoin dominance is likely to surge [27] Risk Considerations - The analysis acknowledges that an earlier-than-expected end to quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve could potentially invalidate the bullish outlook on Bitcoin dominance [16] - The analysis also notes that a potential government shutdown impacting the release of economic data could lead to the Fed cutting rates more aggressively (50 basis points or more), although this scenario is considered less likely due to rising inflation [21][22] Bitcoin Performance - Despite the continuous creation of new altcoins, Bitcoin pairs have been consistently declining throughout the cycle [30]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly focusing on the anticipated actions regarding interest rates and balance sheet normalization. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Cut Expectations** - The Federal Reserve is expected to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 3.75-4.0% and maintain an easing bias, indicating further rate cuts may follow [5][7][12] 2. **End of Quantitative Tightening (QT)** - The Fed is likely to announce the end of balance sheet normalization in January 2026, effective from February 2026. There is a possibility of an earlier announcement in October or December 2025 due to current market conditions [5][8][67] 3. **Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) Adjustment** - An additional reduction of 5bp in IORB is anticipated in either October or December, preparing for the end of QT. This adjustment aims to provide more room for normalized volatility in front-end rates [5][9][10] 4. **Market Conditions and Funding** - Current conditions in funding markets are attributed more to the frequency and size of net UST settlements rather than a liquidity shortage. A technical adjustment to IORB is seen as a way to continue QT [5][9] 5. **Foreign Exchange (FX) Strategy** - FX strategists do not foresee the October meeting being a significant catalyst for the USD, given expectations for minimal changes in the FOMC statement. A bearish outlook on the USD is maintained as the Fed cuts rates and US real rates decline [5][9] 6. **Labor Market and Economic Data** - The ongoing government shutdown has limited the availability of economic data, which is affecting the Fed's ability to gauge the economic outlook. Despite this, the Fed is expected to proceed with rate cuts based on existing data trends [13][15][24] 7. **Inflation and Employment Outlook** - Inflation expectations remain stable, with the Fed's target of 2% being closely monitored. The labor market shows signs of softening, which could influence future monetary policy decisions [27][20] 8. **Future Rate Cut Projections** - The Fed is projected to implement three additional rate cuts in 2026, with a terminal target range of 2.75-3.0% anticipated by July 2026 due to ongoing labor market softness [33][39] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The Fed's communication strategy is crucial, especially regarding the easing bias and the potential for further rate cuts. The absence of significant economic data may not hinder the Fed's decision-making process [38][40] - The impact of the government shutdown on economic activity is estimated to shave off about 0.1-0.2 percentage points from quarterly annualized GDP growth [13][41] - The Fed's long-term strategy aims to transition its portfolio primarily to Treasury securities, moving away from agency securities post-QT [10][11][68] This summary encapsulates the key insights and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the anticipated actions and their implications for the economy and markets.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for Bitcoin (BTC) to experience a brief decline below $100,000, which may represent the last opportunity for investors to buy before a significant upward trend begins [1][2]. Group 1: Bitcoin Price Predictions - Geoff Kendrick from Standard Chartered anticipates a short-lived dip below $100,000 for Bitcoin, suggesting it could be the last time Bitcoin trades at that level [1]. - Kendrick encourages investors to remain agile and consider buying the dip if it occurs, viewing it as a final entry point before a renewed bull phase [2]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Three key forces are identified that will determine when Bitcoin's price will turn higher, including the relationship between gold and Bitcoin, liquidity conditions, and technical support levels [4]. - A notable pattern has emerged where a sharp selloff in gold coincided with a bounce in Bitcoin, indicating a potential shift in investor behavior [2][5]. Group 3: Gold and Bitcoin Dynamics - Kevin Rusher notes that despite gold's recent performance, it continues to provide risk management and diversification benefits, although it lacks the ability to generate yield easily [3]. - Kendrick observes a rotation in investment flows from gold to Bitcoin, suggesting that gold has been outperforming Bitcoin recently, but this trend may be reversing [5]. Group 4: Liquidity Considerations - Kendrick highlights that liquidity indicators are tightening, which may be constraining risk appetite among investors [6]. - The key question revolves around when the US Federal Reserve will recognize these conditions as "tight" enough to warrant a response, potentially impacting ongoing quantitative tightening measures [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the **AI data center expenditure** and its financing through 2030, with a specific emphasis on the **technology sector** and its financial dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Nvidia's Prediction**: Nvidia's CEO predicts that global AI data center expenditure will rise to **$3 trillion to $4 trillion by 2030** from approximately **$600 billion** this year, indicating a **42% annual growth rate** over the next five years. This projection raises questions about its feasibility regarding financing and power output constraints [7][11][31]. 2. **Financing Sources**: Three primary sources for financing this expenditure are identified: - Internally generated funds from corporate cash flows. - Investments from private infrastructure funds and private equity/VC investments. - External financing through net debt or equity issuance [11][12]. 3. **Corporate Financing Surplus**: The non-financial corporate sector in G4 economies has been net saving since the financial crisis, with an average annualized financing surplus of **$540 billion** in dollar terms. The financing surplus in the US for Q2 2025 was around **$155 billion**, indicating a stronger financial position compared to the late 1990s [11][12]. 4. **Tech Sector Capex**: The estimated capital expenditures for the listed tech sector in 2025 are around **$1.3 trillion**, with operating cash flows estimated at **$1.6 trillion**, resulting in a financing surplus of **$300 billion** [12][21]. 5. **Projected Financing Gap**: By 2030, the tech sector is projected to face a financing gap of **$1.6 trillion** after accounting for buybacks and dividends, which are expected to grow to around **$1 trillion** by that year [19][21]. 6. **Private Market Financing**: Private infrastructure and PE/VC fundraising are tracking an annualized pace of around **$70 billion** and **$210 billion** respectively, suggesting that private financing could help narrow the financing deficit significantly [22]. 7. **Debt Financing**: The projected financing deficit could be covered by debt, with an estimated **$640 billion** to be raised through bond issuance by 2030. The net debt to operating cash flow ratio for the tech sector is expected to rise from **0.7** this year to **1.2** by 2030 [23][31]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Retail vs. Institutional Investors**: Retail investors have been actively buying equities during recent market corrections, while institutional investors have been de-risking, indicating a shift in market dynamics [32][36]. 2. **Federal Reserve's Actions**: The Fed is expected to end quantitative tightening (QT) soon, which raises concerns about reserve scarcity in the US banking system, as reserves have fallen below **$3 trillion** [35][55]. 3. **Crypto Market Dynamics**: Recent corrections in the crypto market are attributed to crypto-native investors, with little evidence of significant liquidations in Bitcoin ETFs, contrasting with Ethereum [59][73]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications for the technology sector and the broader financial landscape.

Market Trends - Quantitative Tightening (QT) is ending in the coming months [1] - Quantitative Easing (QE) could start soon [1] Investment Opportunities & Potential Risks - The end of QT and potential start of QE is considered mega bullish for Bitcoin and crypto [1]