I know no one wants to hear bullish ideas and everyone is scared and wants to fling poo at each other... but the Road to Valhalla is getting very close.If global liquidity is the single most dominant macro factor then we MUST focus on that.REMEMBER - THE ONLY GAME IN TOWN IS ROLLING $10TRN IN DEBT. EVERYTHING ELSE IS A SIDESHOW. THIS IS THE GAME OF THE NEXT 12 MONTHS.Currently the gov shutdown has forced a sharp tightening of liquidity as the TGA builds up with no where to spend it.This is not offset by the ...

Core Insights - The crypto market has underperformed compared to equities since April, with Bitcoin down over 15% in the last 30 days despite favorable macroeconomic conditions [1][5] - Bitcoin's year-to-date gain is only 4.2%, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's 16.76% gain [2] - Global liquidity is expanding, but capital is not flowing into the crypto sector, with crypto ETF inflows stalling [3][4] Market Performance - The S&P 500 has maintained a 1.66% gain in the last 30 days, while the crypto market has shed over $500 billion [1][6] - Bitcoin is currently around $104,000, Ethereum at $3,500, and both BNB and SOL have dropped over 20% [6] - The GMCI-30 index dropped 12% last week, with significant losses across various sectors, particularly Gaming (-21%) and Layer 2 solutions (-19%) [6] Liquidity and Market Structure - Despite an increase in the Federal Reserve's M2 Money Supply by over $2 trillion, reaching over $22 trillion, the crypto sector has not benefited from this liquidity [3] - The current market structure in crypto appears healthy, with leverage flushed out and positioning clean, but a resurgence in ETF or digital asset treasury flows is necessary for renewed liquidity [4] - Central banks are cutting rates into relative strength, indicating that the crypto bull run may not be over despite current challenges [8]

Liquidity & Monetary Policy - End of Quantitative Tightening (QT), industry anticipates the timing of Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] - Discussion of the current REPO crisis and its implications [1] - Examination of liquidity issues and associated risks for banks [1] - Addressing misinformation surrounding Quantitative Easing (QE) [1] Market Impact - Analysis of the implications for Bitcoin (BTC) and stocks [1]

Basically trading this.I dont think it will be 6 years of down only, and think there will be pockets of opportunity.We'll have some bull market vibes in there, and the real wealth gathering opportunity similar to 2020 - 2021 will prolly be 2027 - 2029, then cool off again.But overall, i am never leaving this space, there is opportunity forever, and the crypto industry will only grow. I just wanna be able to deploy into new stuff, and have capital ready to do so.Easy (@EasyEatsBodega):My gameplan at the mome ...

Company Performance - Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) saw its stock value increase by over 10% in after-hours trading following a strong third-quarter earnings report [2] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) reported a 20% increase in revenue, reaching $33 billion, surpassing Wall Street expectations of a 17.95% increase and marking its fastest growth rate since 2022 [2] - Overall revenue for Amazon was reported at $180.2 billion, exceeding estimates of $177.75 billion, with projected fourth-quarter net sales between $206 billion and $213 billion [2] Economic Policy - The Federal Reserve plans to end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program and implement a quarter-point interest rate cut in October 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75%-4.0% [3][7] - This shift aims to address liquidity concerns in money markets and support the financial system [3] Housing Market - Japan's housing starts declined by 7.3% year-on-year in September 2025, a less severe contraction than the anticipated 7.8% drop, indicating a potential moderation in the housing market slowdown [4][7] - Annualized housing starts were reported at 728,000, slightly below the estimated 740,000 but above the previous month's 711,000 [4] Regulatory Environment - The UK's communications regulator, Ofcom, is intensifying scrutiny on major tech firms like X, TikTok, and Reddit, threatening algorithm audits to ensure compliance with the Online Safety Act 2023 [5][7] - Companies failing to comply could face fines of up to £18 million or 10% of global revenue, with senior managers facing potential criminal liability for repeated breaches [5]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and the bond market strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact on Prices** Evidence suggests that tariffs imposed by the U.S. are exerting upward pressure on goods prices, but other factors are outweighing these inflationary pressures, necessitating a deeper understanding of these dynamics [1][10][9]. 2. **Customs Receipts and Tariff Revenue** Customs receipts into the U.S. Treasury are on track to achieve the largest monthly collections ever, with collections through October 23 indicating a significant increase compared to previous quarters [9][10][14]. 3. **Nonlabor Costs and Unit Profits** Higher nonfinancial corporate unit nonlabor costs without corresponding unit pricing power indicate a potential decline in unit labor costs, which may prevent further downside in unit profits [9][10]. 4. **Inflation Trends** Over the past year, headline CPI inflation has been lower than consensus expectations, suggesting that while tariffs contribute to inflation, deflation in less exposed goods has mitigated overall inflationary effects [10][16]. 5. **Corporate Profitability Risks** Nonfinancial corporate profits per unit of real gross valued added have declined, placing them in recession risk territory, which could lead companies to either raise prices or cut labor costs [16][20]. 6. **Market Reactions to Economic Data** The market's reaction to inflation data has been positive, supporting a "Goldilocks" scenario where inflation remains low and stable, but the current data does not support this environment [25][26]. 7. **Bond Market Strategies** The report discusses various strategies for navigating the bond market, including staying long on U.S. Treasuries and focusing on the implications of the TGA (Treasury General Account) on funding conditions [28][31]. 8. **German Fiscal Announcement** The German fiscal announcement indicates a rise in deficit/GDP ratios, which is seen as positive for growth but may lead to less pressure on the bond market due to non-market funding sources [5][46]. 9. **Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Issuance** There are misconceptions regarding JGB issuance, with political uncertainty shifting towards policy uncertainty, affecting market perceptions of additional issuance risks [6][54]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Long-Term Economic Outlook** The discussion emphasizes the need for investors to reassess their views on inflation and economic growth, particularly in light of changing nonlabor cost dynamics and demand environments [16][20]. 2. **Investor Behavior During Economic Shifts** Historical patterns suggest that during economic downturns, companies may struggle to pass on higher costs to consumers, impacting labor and profit dynamics [15][20]. 3. **Emerging Trends in Stripping** The stripping market has reached $1 trillion outstanding, driven by strong demand for duration and liability matching, indicating a shift in investment strategies among pension funds [4][55]. 4. **Global Macro Strategy Implications** The overall macroeconomic strategy suggests a cautious approach to investments, particularly in light of potential rate cuts and the evolving landscape of U.S. Treasury performance [29][58]. 5. **Focus on Funding Conditions** The report highlights that funding conditions are more influenced by the demand environment for repo financing rather than liquidity shortages, which is crucial for understanding market dynamics [31][44].

🇺🇸 UPDATE: Fed to end QT and reinvest into T-bills from Dec. 1 after a 25 bp cut.In 2019, $BTC fell 35% after QT ended. Does more T-bill reinvestment help or hurt this time? https://t.co/nm3UFaywNL ...

Core Insights - Mortgage rates are currently at their lowest in a year at 6.19%, but have remained above 6% for the past three years, causing frustration among potential homebuyers [1] - The Federal Reserve's actions, particularly regarding its balance sheet, significantly influence mortgage rates, even though it does not set them directly [1][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve's new target for the benchmark Federal Funds Rate is set between 3.75% and 4.00% effective October 29 [2] - The Fed has implemented its second quarter-point interest rate cut of 2025 to balance its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [3] - The Fed's total assets are approximately $6.59 trillion, representing about 22% of U.S. nominal GDP as of October 22 [4] Group 2: Quantitative Tightening and Easing - During Quantitative Tightening (QT), the Fed reduces its balance sheet by selling or allowing bonds to mature, which removes money from the system [7] - Conversely, during Quantitative Easing (QE), the Fed buys bonds and mortgage-backed securities to inject money into the economy, typically lowering long-term rates [7] - The Fed has been a net seller of Treasuries since 2022, which has pressured rates higher and elevated borrowing costs, including mortgages [8]

Core Insights - Popular market analyst Ted Pillows discusses the future of altcoins in light of the Federal Reserve's plans to end its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program [1][2] - The Fed intends to suspend QT runoff by December 1, 2025, which involves reinvesting proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into Treasury bills [2][3] Market Impact - Historical data shows that a similar move by the Fed in October 2019 led to a 42% decline in the altcoin market cap in the subsequent months [3][4] - The altcoin market remained at low levels until March 2020, when Quantitative Easing (QE) was introduced, providing relief for altcoins [4] Liquidity Needs - Ted Pillows emphasizes that the altcoin market requires liquidity, which can be achieved through either the Fed starting QE or the Treasury releasing TGA liquidity into the economy [5] - The likelihood of the Fed initiating QE in the near term is considered low, and the TGA option is dependent on the suspension of the US government shutdown that began on October 1, 2025 [5][6] Market Outlook - The current market outlook suggests potential underperformance in the crypto market for some time [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the North American economy, particularly focusing on interest rates and quantitative tightening (QT) strategies. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Decisions**: The Federal Reserve cut the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.0%, but this was not a unanimous decision, with dissenting opinions within the Committee [6][9][10] 2. **Data Dependence**: Future rate cuts will be more data-dependent, with Chair Powell emphasizing that the Fed's policy is not on a preset course. The key question is what data will be available before the December meeting [8][22] 3. **Prolonged Shutdown Risks**: A prolonged government shutdown poses risks to the Fed's ability to make informed decisions, potentially leading to a more cautious approach in December [6][22][24] 4. **End of QT**: The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction (QT) on December 1, with all principal payments from agency securities being reinvested into Treasury bills [9][40][49] 5. **Market Reactions**: The market's expectation of a December rate cut has been challenged by Powell's comments, indicating that a cut is not a forgone conclusion [16][21][24] 6. **Economic Outlook**: Expectations for economic growth are slowing, with predictions of a rise in the unemployment rate by year-end. The Fed anticipates further cuts in December and January, but risks have shifted towards fewer cuts due to the lack of timely data [6][22][24] 7. **FX Strategy**: The FX strategists foresee a near-term rebound in the USD as markets adjust their expectations for Fed cuts, although a medium-term decline is still anticipated due to yield compression and lower real rates [6][22][57] 8. **Investment Recommendations**: Recommendations include exiting certain positions in Treasury and SOFR curve steepeners, while maintaining long positions in 5-year Treasuries and 2-year Treasury swap spreads [6][25][41] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Dissenting Opinions**: The presence of dissenting opinions within the FOMC indicates a range of views on future monetary policy, which could lead to volatility in market expectations [10][20] 2. **Labor Market Indicators**: The Fed's future decisions may hinge significantly on labor market indicators, with Powell noting that signs of a strengthening labor market could influence policy direction [22][24] 3. **Reinvestment Strategy**: The Fed's strategy to reinvest principal payments into Treasury bills aims to normalize the composition of its balance sheet, moving towards a shorter duration portfolio [49][50] 4. **Technical Levels for USD**: The USD is testing key technical levels, which could influence short-term trading strategies [57][60] 5. **Mortgage Paydowns**: Forecasts suggest that mortgage paydowns will average around $18 billion per month, with implications for reinvestment strategies post-QT [74][75][79] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and implications from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the Federal Reserve's current stance and future outlook.