The unemployment rate, while edging up in July, stands at a historically low level of 4.2% and has been broadly stable over the past year. Other indicators of labor market conditions are also little changed or have softened only modestly, including quits, layoffs, the ratio of vacancies to unemployment, and nominal wage growth. Labor supply has softened in line with demand, sharply lowering the break even rate of job creation needed to hold the unemployment rate constant.Indeed, labor force growth has slowe ...

Inflation & Tariffs - The Fed acknowledges that higher tariffs have started to increase prices in certain categories [2] - July's core PCE is observed at 2.9%, a 0.1% increase from June, with notable upward pressure on goods and downward pressure on housing and non-housing services [2] - The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible and expected to accumulate in the coming months, although the base case assumes these effects will be relatively short-lived [3] - It will take time for the tariffs to fully impact supply chains [3] Labor Market - Job growth slowdown is more significant than previously estimated, with substantial downward revisions [4] - The labor market is in a curious balance, characterized by slowing supply and demand for workers [5] - The break-even rate required to maintain a stable unemployment rate has been sharply reduced due to immigration policies [5] - Risks to the labor market could lead to rapid increases in layoffs and unemployment, prompting caution regarding rate levels [6] Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The shifting balance of risk may warrant adjustments to the Fed's policy stance [1] - Current policy is modestly restrictive, but the stability of the unemployment rate allows the Fed to proceed cautiously [1] - Inflation risks are to the upside, while employment risks are to the downside [1] - The Fed aims to take a balanced approach to its dual mandate [2] - Economic growth has slowed notably in the first half [6]

Economic Outlook - Federal Reserve staff expects real GDP growth through 2027 to align with prior forecasts [1] - Unemployment is projected to exceed the natural rate by end-2025 and remain elevated [1] Financial Market Implications - Payment stablecoin usage may rise following the GENIUS Act [1] - Increased stablecoin usage could boost demand for assets like U S Treasuries [1]

Recession Risks - Moody's Analytics认为美国经济衰退的风险非常高，就业是关键 [1] - 如果三个月移动平均失业率上升超过 0.5 个百分点，历史上预示着经济衰退 [3] - 由于移民政策等因素，失业率可能无法完全反映经济疲软 [4] - 负面的就业数据将是经济衰退的明确信号，历史上，当就业数据转为负值时，通常是经济衰退开始的月份 [2][6] - 要确认经济衰退，需要看到一系列持续的经济活动下降，而不仅仅是一两个月的负面数据 [6][7] Labor Market Dynamics - 稳定失业率所需的每月新增就业人数约为 2550 人 [5] - 由于数据测量问题等因素，潜在的就业增长可能接近该水平 [5] - 移民对劳动力增长至关重要，但更严格的移民政策导致外国出生的劳动力增长下降，甚至开始下降 [8][9][10] - 由于外国出生劳动力减少，整体劳动力规模低于年初水平，从而压低了失业率 [10][11] - 劳动力增长放缓会降低经济的潜在增长率，并可能导致通胀压力 [11][12] Consumer Spending - 今年总体实际消费支出停滞不前，部分原因可能是移民政策的影响 [12][13]

A new concern following a week of mixed inflation reports. Economists are warning President Trump's new immigration policies will contribute to the rising prices of goods due to a dwindling labor force. It comes as companies struggle to absorb the full weight of the president's tariffs.And joining me now is Courtney Brown, an economics reporter at Axios, focusing on the global economy. Welcome, my friend. So Courtney, you're right.Job market gloom hasn't been this bad since the Great Recession. And while th ...

So I see the labor market as stable around full employment. Uh we have an unemployment rate at 4.2% which is consistent with full employment and you know low by historical averages. We have a ratio of vacancies to persons unemployed which is above one meaning there is more than one vacancy slightly more than one vacancy for each person unemployed and looking for a job.We have uh the transition rates from employed to employed are consistent with a full employment labor market and the employment cost index is ...

Labor Market Trends - Young men are facing difficulties in securing jobs despite having college degrees [1] - Men under 30 with bachelor's degrees have an unemployment rate of 6%, almost double that of young women with the same education level [1] - The healthcare industry, which is predominantly female, accounts for essentially 100% of labor force growth [2] - Traditionally male blue-collar jobs in manufacturing, transportation, warehousing, and mining have experienced decline or stagnation [2] Education and Employment - A bachelor's degree may not hold the same value for men as it once did, with young men with bachelor's degrees slightly more likely to be unemployed than those with just a high school diploma [3] - There is increasing demand for credentials aligned with specific work requirements, rather than solely relying on a college degree [4] Social and Emotional Impact - 25% of men aged 15 to 34 reported feeling lonely, compared to 18% of women in the same age group [5] - Young men are experiencing emotional challenges related to career aspirations, financial independence, and a sense of success [5]

Labor Market Trends - Unemployment rate for men between 23 and 30 with a bachelor's degree has jumped nearly double that of women and is higher than the overall unemployment rate [1] - Young men with degrees are more likely to be unemployed than those with just a high school diploma [1] - The labor market isn't growing that much at all [4] Industry Dynamics - There has been a surge in demand for traditionally women-dominated fields and professions, such as healthcare where 80% of the workers are women [3] - Traditionally male-dominated industries like tech have been cutting thousands of jobs [4] - Job losses are also seen in industries like manufacturing [4] - Construction is still an area that has a big need, especially for those without a college degree [8][9] Potential Solutions - Experts suggest young men consider a career pivot, potentially towards healthcare [7] - Men who want to stay in male-dominated industries can consider construction, which still has a big need [8]

The July jobs report shows the economy added 73,000 jobs, with unemployment holding steady at 4.2%. While the stable unemployment rate might seem reassuring at first glance, the implications for job search success are more nuanced.https://t.co/OZCERRlKog https://t.co/suj0WuY4Bn ...

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Meeting and Economic Outlook Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve and Economic Policy**: The July FOMC meeting indicated a hawkish stance regarding interest rates and inflation management, emphasizing the importance of the unemployment rate as a key indicator of economic health. Core Insights and Arguments - **Hawkish Tone of FOMC**: The July FOMC meeting raised the bar for potential rate cuts later in the year, with Chair Powell highlighting persistent inflation risks and the unemployment rate as a more accurate measure of maximum employment [6][8][37]. - **Tariff-Induced Inflation**: Powell acknowledged initial evidence of inflation due to tariffs, but noted uncertainty regarding the pace of tariff pass-through to consumer prices, indicating that the Fed remains data-dependent [6][18][22]. - **Labor Market Dynamics**: Powell stated that the Fed could still meet its maximum employment mandate despite slow payroll growth, as long as the unemployment rate remains low. This suggests a focus on the unemployment rate rather than payroll growth as a key metric [6][24][30][32]. - **Inflation Expectations**: The Fed's inflation target remains above 2%, with core PCE prices rising by 2.7% over the past year. The Fed expects inflation to remain firm in the coming months, with potential upward revisions to inflation forecasts [18][23][37]. - **Economic Growth Assessment**: The FOMC downgraded its growth assessment, indicating that economic activity moderated in the first half of the year, which could imply a dovish tilt in future policy decisions [10][12]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Dissenting Opinions**: The presence of dissenting opinions from Governors Bowman and Waller allowed Powell to adopt a more hawkish tone, focusing on the consensus view rather than reflecting a range of opinions [16][38]. - **Market Reactions and Predictions**: The market-implied probability of rate cuts has been influenced by upcoming employment and inflation data, with expectations that the Fed will remain on hold in 2025 unless significant economic changes occur [39][41][62]. - **Trade Recommendations**: Analysts suggest various trading strategies, including maintaining long positions in specific Treasury securities and monitoring the USD outlook, which is expected to decline unless labor market data surprises positively [66][62]. Conclusion - The FOMC's current stance reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy, with a focus on inflation management and labor market stability. The upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining the Fed's future actions regarding interest rates and overall economic strategy.