June 16, 2025 01:13 PM GMT Morgan Stanley Research Global Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East – Our Early Thoughts on Implications for the Economy and Markets June 16, 2025 Serena Tang – Global Head of Cross-Asset Strategy | Strategist Seth Carpenter – Chief Global Economist Brian Gibbons – Head of Energy Credit Research | Credit Analyst MORGAN STANLEY & CO. LLC Martijn Rats – Global Commodities Strategist | Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist Marina Zavolock – C ...

So, what does this move away from the traditional safe haven asset tell you about where the market is heading, Tim. Well, if they're if they're vacating Treasury assets, you'd think yields would be higher. So, I mean, I think some of that is is somewhat conflicting, but I I think the the the confluence of ECB last week getting out there saying, "Hey, I think we're done in the short term, even though inflation is a little sticky. It's kind of not moving anywhere." And I think at this point, their doubbishnes ...

You said that if the Fed were to cut rates, that might cause a sell off in 30 year Treasuries. It's already happening. They started cutting rates in September of of of 2023, and the long bond has gone up in yield significantly since then, 100 basis points.Do you think that will happen again. Why not. I mean, that's it's a paradigm shift.We've we have a tremendous paradigm shift that's going on where money is not coming into the United States, where the long bond is not a flight to quality asset. Gold sudden ...

ab Global Research owered by UBS Evidence Lab YES P 14 May 2025 Global Economics & Strategy Deep Speak: Using AI to measure what central banks say The BoJ, after decades of easing bias, now ranks as the most hawkish of the three major central banks, and its hawkishness is back at '08 levels, when it was last tightening. Tone as a leading indicator of market repricing As we show here, tone shifts lead policy rate changes and market repricing, especially during tightening cycles. Both the Fed and ECB index ca ...

5月12日，中美经贸会谈取得新进展，国际金价持续震荡。当天，"金价下跌"相关话题冲上微博热搜。伦敦金现、COMEX黄金盘中跌幅一度超3%，截至20 时，伦敦金价跌破每盎司3225美元，对比4月下旬突破3500美元关口的表现，可谓是"大跳水"。 5月12日，国际上，伦敦金现、COMEX黄金盘中跌幅一度超3%。国内方面，上海黄金交易所Au9999黄金价格较前一交易日下跌26.5元至每克759元。A股市 场黄金股集体下挫。截至收盘，贵金属板块集体大跌，西部黄金、四川黄金跌超3%，山东黄金、山金国际跌超2%。黄金相关基金亦纷纷回调，截至发稿， 博时基金、国泰黄金、华夏黄金的ETF联接A基金日跌幅均超3%。 足金首饰金价也明显下降，多个品牌金饰价格跌回千元附近。5月12日，周大福、周六福、六福珠宝、金至尊和潮宏基的足金金饰价格为每克1008元，周生 生金饰价格为每克1007元，菜百首饰金饰价格为每克988元。其中，周大福、周生生足金饰品较前一日价格下跌14元。 金价回调趋势下，有了"五一"假期与母亲节这"双节"加持，市场上的购金潮热度不减。这段时间，广州东山百货黄金专柜也碰上了销售的"黄金周"，东山百 货业务部经理戴崇 ...

外汇市场一周回顾（2025年5月5日-5月9日） 欧元和英镑：欧元震荡下行，英镑承压 欧元本周走势震荡，周初连续上涨二个交易日后，周三周四连续下跌，周五以小幅反弹报收于1.12511。整体处于振荡调整阶段。整体而言，欧元兑美元在 1.12附近波动，面临1.2150的长期压力线限制，上行动能不足，短期或维持在较小的上升通道内运行。 英镑兑美元则因英国央行利率决议临近及经济数据不确定性，波动加剧，整体表现偏弱，收于1.3300左右。 本周全球外汇市场波动显著，围绕贸易谈判，美联储利率决议、全球央行政策动态以及地缘政治风险，主要货币对表现分化，美元指数经历震荡反复，避险 货币和商品货币走势各异。 美元走势：震荡中显现分歧 美元指数本周整体呈现震荡走势，开盘于约99.8附近，最高触及100.64，涨幅约1.03%。美元先是因市场对美联储可能维持利率不变的预期而承压，指数一 度跌破100关口，但在美联储主席鲍威尔对通胀和贸易政策的表态后，美元迅速反弹，周五收于100.42，显示出强劲的短线反弹力量。 不过，美元指数本周仍呈现"多空分歧"，投资者对美国经济数据复杂性及全球经济不确定性保持谨慎态度，市场对美联储未来货币政策 ...

AngloGold Ashanti PLC (AU) and Barrick Mining Corporation (GOLD) are leading global gold mining names with diversified operations across multiple continents. Gold prices have gained 28% so far this year. This has been supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty, escalating trade tensions, stock market volatility and U.S. dollar weakness during this period. This trend is expected to continue, fueled by robust central bank buying; expanding industrial use in energy, healthcare and technology; ...

Precious Analyst 贵⾦属分析师 Gold to Continue Outglittering Silver ⻩⾦将持续⽐⽩银更耀眼 The gold-silver price ratio, which historically traded in a 45-80 range, has broken out of this range since 2022. We don't expect silver to catch up with the gold rally because higher central bank gold demand has structurally lifted the gold-silver price ratio. 历史上在 45-80 区间波动的⾦银价格⽐⾃ 2022 年起已突破该区间。由 于央⾏购⾦需求上升从结构上抬⾼了⾦银价格⽐，我们预计⽩银难以赶 上此轮⻩⾦涨势。 Historically, gold and silver prices were closely linked through investment flows, with silver's ...

不同货币对的基本面分析框架 外汇市场中，每个货币对的汇率波动均受其发行国（或地区）经济基本面及政策环境的驱动。以下按主 要货币对分类，解析其核心影响因素及分析方法： 一、主要直盘货币对 1. EUR/USD（欧元 / 美元） 核心驱动因素： · 欧美央行政策差异： · 美联储（Fed）与欧央行（ECB）的利率路径对比（如 2022 年美联储激进加息推高美元）。 · ECB 的量化宽松（QE）或缩表（QT）节奏。 · 经济数据对比： · 欧元区：GDP、CPI、ZEW 经济景气指数、德国 IFO 商业景气指数。 · 美国：非农就业、CPI、零售销售、ISM 制造业 PMI。 · 地缘政治风险： · 俄乌冲突对欧洲能源供应链的冲击（如天然气价格影响欧元区贸易平衡）。 · 欧盟内部财政政策分歧（如南欧国家债务危机风险）。 策略启示： 当欧美利差扩大时（如美联储加息快于 ECB），EUR/USD 倾向下行；关注欧美 CPI 差值预判政策转向 时点。 2. USD/JPY（美元 / 日元） 核心驱动因素： · 美日利差与日本央行（BOJ）政策： · BOJ 的收益率曲线控制（YCC）政策调整（如 2022 年 12 月 ...