Moments after we taped our show last night, the Mad Red Hatter wrote, "I can't believe ABC Fake News gave Jimmy Kimmel his job back. >> You can't believe they gave me my job back. I can't believe we gave you your job back." >> Jimmy Kimmel had the last laugh in the Trump FCC's failed bid to get him cancelled, as you saw there. He won the battle and his ratings rose after that clash. We can also report new he's just renewed his deal at a time when these companies are trimming late night budgets.Kim will beat ...

Negative momentum in the labor market and AI's adoption in the workplace will make the Fed’s unemployment outlook hard to achieve next year, @conorsen says (via @opinion) https://t.co/vQoZK8srw6 ...

Roger, settle this for us. Was it hawkish. Was it doubbish.The fact that they're going to buy bonds on the short end, does that have the same impact uh as it just a deeper cut. No, I I think they're trying to avoid sending the message that the buying bonds on the short end had anything to do with monetary policy. Um was it hawkish. Was it dovish.I'd have to say it was uh distinctly undecided. You know, as you point out, there were three descents. One in favor of more uh reductions, two in favor of holding.a ...

to follow up on your comments about job growth. Why is it so much worse than the official data is suggesting. >> Oh, well, we just we know I think it's it's um this is I don't think this is particularly controversial.There's a it's very difficult to to estimate job growth in real time. They don't count everybody. They have a survey and there's been something of a systematic overcount.And so we we expected and they correct it twice a year. So the last time they corrected it, we thought the correction would b ...

Uh thank you uh Mr. . Chairman for taking our questions here. Um the uh you had previously described rate cuts in terms of a riskmanagement framework and kind of following up on what Howard was asking um is the riskmanagement phase of rate cuts over here and uh um have you taken out sufficient uh insurance I guess against potential weakness in terms of the data we might get next week when it comes to employment.So we're going to get a great deal of data between now and the and the January meeting and I'm su ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - Goldman Sachs anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and believes they should do so [2] - The firm expects the Fed to be hawkish in its rhetoric following the rate cut but suggests they should be patient and await official data on the labor market [2] - Goldman Sachs suspects the labor market is weaker than it appears and anticipates a deeper easing cycle from the Fed than the market currently expects [3] - The firm believes the Fed will quickly counteract negative pressures in the labor market and move into a more easing posture early in the new year [4] Labor Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs acknowledges mixed messages in job openings reports and unemployment claims but suspects labor market weakness will become apparent in 2026 [5][3] - The firm anticipates productivity gains from technology and AI adoption will necessitate easier monetary policy to assist labor market rebalancing [6] Economic Growth and Inflation - Goldman Sachs is bullish on growth in 2026, anticipating high GDP and high unemployment, requiring lower interest rates [7][8] - The firm expects productivity gains to lower the cost of goods sold, benefiting consumers and margins, and does not anticipate stubbornly high inflation [7][6] - Goldman Sachs views AI and technological advances as a significant unlock of productivity, benefiting consumers and the real economy [8][9] Fiscal Implications - Goldman Sachs notes that great growth and lower interest rates would be beneficial for the US government's fiscal balance [9]

Core Viewpoint - The market has the potential to rise even if the Federal Reserve (Fed) does not cut interest rates, primarily due to strong earnings growth despite some economic indicators showing weakness [3][4]. Economic Indicators - Recent retail sales numbers were weak, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) did not show strong performance, indicating mixed economic signals [3]. - The unemployment rate is increasing, which raises concerns about the Fed's timing in making rate cuts [4]. Earnings Performance - Analysts had anticipated low single-digit increases in earnings for the first three quarters of the year, but actual earnings growth came in at 10% to 15% [3][4]. Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is facing challenges that may not be resolved by lowering interest rates, including retiring baby boomers and a skills mismatch among workers [5][6]. - Despite strong GDP growth projected at around 4% for the second and third quarters, payroll employment growth is lagging, suggesting productivity increases are outpacing job growth [6]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed's potential rate cuts may not significantly impact the bond market, as seen in previous instances where rate cuts did not lead to lower bond yields [7][8]. - Inflation remains around 3%, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate adjustments [8]. Market Sentiment - There is a prevailing sentiment that if the Fed lowers rates, it could reduce the risk of economic weakness, but persistent inflation may lead to future rate hikes [8][9]. - Concerns exist about a potential "meltup" in the stock market, where rapid price increases could lead to instability [11].

Monetary Policy Outlook - Morgan Stanley no longer anticipates a December Fed rate cut [1] - The bank now forecasts three rate cuts in 2025: January, April, and June [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains its terminal rate forecast at 3-325% [1] Economic Indicators - Stronger payrolls data reduces the perceived risk of rising unemployment [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point, influenced by recent job cuts from major companies like Amazon and UPS, despite a lack of official employment data due to a government shutdown [1][2] - Amazon announced a reduction of 14,000 jobs, while UPS has cut 48,000 positions this year, indicating a trend of workforce reductions among large corporations [1][2] - The job cuts are seen as a potential catalyst for further Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, with major indices reaching record highs [2][3] Group 2 - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise in the coming quarters, which could be perceived as beneficial for the market as it may prompt the Fed to take action [3][4] - There is a concern that the current job losses and rising unemployment may eventually lead to negative economic implications, despite some believing that bad news could be good for the market [4][5] - The lack of recent data complicates the understanding of the economic landscape, as companies are providing insights into their operations amidst the job cuts [5][6] Group 3 - The layoffs at UPS are attributed to a reversal of pandemic-driven demand, suggesting that the company cannot sustain its previous workforce levels [8] - In contrast, Amazon's job cuts are viewed as a strategic move to maintain capital discipline and focus on high-potential investments, indicating a different narrative behind their workforce reduction [9][10] - The differing stories of Amazon and UPS highlight the complexities of the current job market, where job cuts may coexist with productivity gains [10]

Labor Market Trends - The labor market has weakened over the last four weeks [2] - Weakness is observed in higher income segments, impacting spending [2] - Uncertainty from tariffs and AI's substitution of labor for capital are contributing factors [3] - The period of robust jobs growth and record low unemployment is ending [4] Data and Analysis - Government data may not be adequate for corporate decision makers, policy makers, or investors [6] - Alternative, high-frequency data sources are gaining adoption for deeper market segmentation [7] - The government shutdown has exacerbated the trend towards using alternative data sources [7] Policy Implications - Important policy decisions like interest rates should acknowledge the weaker labor market [5]