So today is our latest installment with a closer look at the labor market and jobs. Joining us now is John Leer, chief economist at Morgan Morning Consults. This is a firm that specializes in online survey research.Uh and John, it's great to have you on. Highfrequency data. What is it showing you. How do you gather it and what is it showing you.>> Yeah, what it's showing is a labor market that has consistently weakened over the last four weeks. I don't think it's falling off a cliff, but we're certainly in ...

Monetary Policy - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will approach additional rate cuts very cautiously [1] - Inflation risks remain more prominent than the threat of higher unemployment [1]

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin said while unemployment and inflation have both moved away from the US central bank’s goals, he sees only limited risk of further deterioration on both fronts https://t.co/SvlHw6X1yJ ...

Economic Situation & Monetary Policy - The current economic situation is highly unusual due to conflicting inflation and unemployment risks, potentially unprecedented [1][2][3] - Supply shocks push up prices and reduce purchasing power, creating a dilemma for monetary policy [3][4] - The Fed's consensus views tariffs as a one-time price hit, but its impact on inflation expectations is uncertain [4][5][6][7] - There's a risk of losing contact with the 2% inflation target and developing an inflation psychology [9] - The industry believes the Fed needs to be more proactive in demonstrating its commitment to the inflation target, especially given political pressures [10] Tariffs & Inflation - Tariffs lead to a permanent increase in the price of goods, unlike temporary supply shocks [6] - The key concern is whether tariffs will fuel inflation expectations, leading to a wage-price spiral [7] - The long-term inflation impact of tariffs is uncertain, and humility is warranted [8][9] Fed & Politics - It's unprecedented for a member of the administration on leave to be a governor of the Fed [2] - It's unusual for a president to try to remove a Fed member on what many consider a pretext [2] - It's also unusual for a Fed chair to operate when the president has publicly criticized them [2]

分组1 - The current state of the US economy is characterized by confusion regarding the labor market and the impact of tariffs, leading to a wide dispersion in views among Federal Reserve members [2][3][28] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process reflects a strong emphasis on maintaining independence, as evidenced by the lack of dissent among members regarding rate cuts, which is seen as a positive sign for market stability [4][19][29] - The Phillips curve framework suggests that rising unemployment may keep wage inflation low, allowing the Fed to overlook current inflation rates and potentially cut rates in the future [6][7][34] 分组2 - Small-cap stocks are showing significant movement, with the SML small cap 600 index up 2%, indicating that domestic companies are likely to benefit later in the rate cut cycle [10][11] - The bond market remains relatively stable, with the 10-year yield at 4%, suggesting that mortgage rates may not decrease significantly despite expectations of rate cuts [12][14] - The ongoing capital expenditure (capex) cycle driven by AI infrastructure investment is expected to enhance productivity and profit margins, positively impacting equity markets [22][25][26]

Fed expected to cut rates for the first time this year later this afternoon. Here with us now at Post 9 is former Goldman Sachs president, current IBM vice chair Gary Conn. Gary also served as the director of the National Economic Council during President Trump's first term.Welcome back. Thanks for having great to have you, especially on a day like today. Is there scope for the market to be disappointed if if Powell isn't dovish enough to meet all their great expectations of more cuts.Look, there's there's ...

Fed expected to cut rates for the first time this year later this afternoon. Here with us now at Post 9 is former Goldman Sachs president, current IBM vice chair Gary Conn. Gary also served as the director of the National Economic Council during President Trump's first term.Welcome back. Thanks for having great to have you, especially on a day like today. Is there scope for the market to be disappointed if if Powell isn't dovish enough to meet all their great expectations of more cuts.Look, there's there's ...

Interest Rate Expectations - The market widely anticipates a 25 basis points (0.25%) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week [1] - The debate centers on whether the Fed will signal one or two more rate cuts after September [2] - The market is pricing in rate cuts that could bring the federal funds rate down to approximately 3% by the end of next year [7] Labor Market & Economic Outlook - Softening labor market indicators, with payroll employment growth at only 30,000 per month in the last three months, are a key concern driving potential rate cuts [5] - The market generally agrees with the view that downside risks to the labor market outweigh upside risks to inflation, justifying rate cuts [11] - There's a possibility that steeper rate cuts could lead to a reacceleration of inflation and a deterioration in the dollar's value [10] Fed Policy & Internal Dynamics - Most members of the committee are expected to align with the Chairman's direction on rates, with disagreements primarily focused on timing [15][16] - The influence of a newly appointed member from the administration is expected to be limited during the upcoming meeting [19][21] - The degree of disagreement among members tends to be small, as everyone is evaluating the same economic information [22]

Fed Policy & Market Expectations - Market anticipates a Fed rate cut next week, followed by two more cuts by year-end [2] - Next week's rate cut is highly likely, but further cuts depend on inflation outlook and economic strength [3] - Uncertainty exists regarding the pass-through of tariff costs into inflation [4] - Concerns exist about slowing disposable income growth potentially moderating consumption growth [6][10] - The Fed's commitment to a 2% inflation target could be questioned if inflation rises [12] Employment & Economic Indicators - Job growth has moderated, but it may reflect labor supply weakness due to limited immigration and deportations [9] - No signs of an imminent recession involving rapid job losses are apparent [7] - Downward revision of job growth by over 900,000 jobs in the past year raises concerns about maximum employment [8] - Consumer concerns about inflation-adjusted income not keeping pace with prices could impact consumption [10] Personnel - The Senate may confirm Steven Myin as Fed Governor, replacing Adriana Cougler [1]

On Wall Street, we've all been conditioned to believe that good news is bad news and vice versa. Maybe if the econom is too strong, we can expect the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates, bad for growth. And if the economy is weak enough, the Fed will cut rates, good for growth, and the stock market.But sometimes bad news really is bad news, like the very weak employment numbers we saw this very morning. Something that shows the economy is producing far fewer jobs than expected. Like many others, I was ...