All right. So, again, we we kind of hit this a couple times in the show. We've seen a change in momentum, a lot of anxiety about what J Pal is going to uh say coming up on Friday and how doubbish or hawkish he may be.What are your expectations. Do you think that he's going to signal a 25 point rate cut. Will he leave the door open for a 50point rate cut that it seems the market really wants. >> I doubt that he'll leave the door open for a 50 basis rate point cut.Um it doesn't make sense given the basic unde ...

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market's pricing in an 80-90% chance of rate cuts in September is considered unlikely due to upcoming data releases [5] - The Fed's decision-making remains data-dependent, with upcoming inflation and employment reports being crucial [3][6] - There's a possibility of rate cuts later in the year, but the timing and magnitude are uncertain [4] - The Fed should be cautious about adopting a dovish tone, as it could lead to a resurgence of inflation [8] Inflation Outlook - Inflation pressures persist, particularly in sticky areas like services and housing [4][11] - The impact of tariffs implemented in August on inflation is yet to be fully realized [7][14] - The fourth quarter is expected to be a volatile period for inflation due to the delayed effects of tariffs [15] - Inflation is not considered a long-term issue, but volatility is expected over the next 6-9 months [13] Employment & Economic Concerns - The labor market is showing signs of weakening, which the Fed will need to consider [4][10] - The Fed needs to balance concerns about inflation with the employment picture [9][10]

BREAKING: 🇬🇧 UK inflation rises to 3.8%, highest level in 19 months. https://t.co/5Ad9xd4RUf ...

Inflation Trends - UK inflation rises to 3.8%, the highest level in 19 months [1]

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market is uncertain about Fed Chair Powell's upcoming statements on future rate cuts at Jackson Hole [1] - The Fed is expected to maintain maximum policy optionality, potentially conflicting with the White House's desires [2] - The advisor suggests the Fed should have already cut rates, advocating for a cut in September [11] - A 25 basis point cut is recommended, but a 50 basis point cut is possible if a poor labor report precedes the September meeting [11] - Maintaining optionality risks being late, potentially leading to a larger policy error [12][13] Inflation & Economic Outlook - The advisor notes "sticky inflation" at 25%-3% and suggests that as long as inflationary expectations are anchored, the economy can tolerate this level [13] - The advisor argues that the current 2% inflation target may be inappropriate given structural changes in the economy [13][14] - The advisor believes the Fed is excessively data-dependent, reacting to past data rather than anticipating future trends [3][4] Labor Market - The unemployment rate of 42% is the only reassuring indicator in the labor market [8] - Other labor market indicators, along with company reports and college graduate outcomes, suggest a softening labor market [9] - The labor market's decline is not linear, with potential for sudden downturns following initial slowdowns [10][11]

Market Broadening & Investment Strategy - Miller Value Partners 认为市场正在经历一个拓宽阶段，类似于 1999 年至 2006 年期间的情况 [1][2] - 建议积极投资于小盘周期性股票 [4] - 类似于 2000 年到 2006 年的环境，小型股价值指数几乎增长了两倍，跑赢大盘增长股 20%/年，持续 7 年 [3] Macroeconomic Factors - 美国失业率较低但略有上升 [3] - 通货膨胀在很大程度上受到控制，货币政策制定者受到鼓励放松政策 [4] - 债券市场目前预计未来 2 年的年化通胀率为 2.6%，属于可控范围 [5] Valuation Discrepancies & Capital Intensity - 科技七巨头（Mag 7）的估值相对于市场其他部分非常高，同时资本支出也在急剧增加 [6] - 科技七巨头（Mag 7）的资本支出占运营现金流的比例从 2020 年的三分之一以下增加到 2023 年的 60% 以上 [7] - 行业内对 AI 模型的过度投资可能导致价格战 [9] Specific Company Analysis - Alphabet 是价值投资者投资人工智能的途径，因为它拥有 YouTube、搜索和 Waymo 等资产的分配渠道 [9][10] - 尽管 Alphabet 具有更好的增长和护城河，但其交易价格低于市场 [10] - Android 操作系统每天都在 70% 的人手中，这是一个护城河 [12]

Market Performance & Trends - S&P 自四月低点以来上涨 30%，Magnificent 7 上涨 50%，年初的普涨趋势已经反转，主要由 Magnificent 7 驱动 [2] - 市场存在 AI 狂热，约 1 trillion 美元的资本支出掩盖了市场中的一些担忧 [3] - Russell 2000 的表现优于 S&P，等权重优于市值权重，但 Magnificent 7 的表现仍然优于其他 [2][3] Tariffs & Consumer Impact - 平均关税已从年初的 2%-3% 升至 15%-16%，但尚未看到关税对消费者的影响 [4][5] - 批发商正在吸收关税增加的价格，但尚未传导给消费者，而消费者占经济的 2/3 [4] - 关税对消费者的影响以及对通货膨胀的影响仍有待观察，10% 的增长幅度是可能发生的 [5] Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Interest Rates - 市场预计 9 月份降息的可能性为 80%，10 月份降息的可能性为 100%，但一切皆有可能 [8] - Newberger Private Wealth 预计今年将降息两次，除非出现意外的负面情况，否则预计不会降息三次 [9] - 市场情绪化，美联储的职责是保持客观，使用事实、数字和硬数据，避免屈服于政治压力 [8] - 鲍威尔在 Jackson Hole 的讲话备受关注，市场将根据他的言论做出反应 [6][7]

Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, US stock features little change this morning after closing out flat in Monday's trading session. Investors in wait and see mode ahead of the Fed's meeting in Jackson Hole, where traders will search for clues on the central bank's plans for interest rates. Plus, Home Depot out with its earnings results.The world's largest home improvement company posting disappointing s ...

Gold Market Analysis - Lowering interest rates globally, especially outside the US, and deflationary forces are beneficial for gold [1] - Central banks are significantly increasing gold purchases through ETFs, reversing four years of outflows from gold ETFs [2] - Gold holdings have increased by almost 11%, with investors potentially anticipating a stock market correction [3] - Corn is exhibiting a bull flag pattern, holding steady at approximately $3,333 per ounce for five months [2] Commodity Market Trends - The market has already priced in potential easing measures, despite ongoing inflation and strong employment [5] - Copper's potential downward tilt could signal a broader bearish trend in commodities, as crude oil and corn prices decline [6] - Global tariffs on the world's largest goods importer are creating pressure on copper prices [6][7]

Jackson Hole Symposium Focus - The industry anticipates significant media interest in this year's Jackson Hole symposium due to attacks on the Fed, potentially exceeding lodging capacity [1] - The symposium will likely focus on how Fed Chair Jay Powell messages the current economic situation [3] - The industry speculates on potential announcements, including the possibility of Fed Chair Jay Powell stepping aside [4] - Fed communication is expected to be crucial, especially regarding potential rate cuts and concerns about perceived political pressure [9][10] Key Discussion Points - The industry expects discussion on how the Fed will adapt its labor market measurements considering artificial intelligence and immigration [14] - Immediate focus is on the dual mandate of the Fed, particularly regarding goods and services inflation [16] - The intellectual significance of central bank independence and its impact on inflation will be a key topic [17][18] - The historical context of central bank independence, referencing events like the Panic of 1907 and the 1951 agreement, will be explored [19]