Joining me now to discuss all of this is Dana Peterson, the chief economist over at the conference board alongside our own CNBC senior economics reporter, Steve Leeman. Steve, let's start with you first. We had a lot of data today and it does paint that very mixed picture.So, what exactly was the takeaway and what does this mean for rates next week or two weeks. >> Well, a bit of older data, but as I've said, old data is better than no data. Um I I think what it does is it it it sets or reduces the uh expec ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Leadership - Kevin Hassett 被认为是下任美联储主席的热门人选，他与特朗普总统在经济和货币政策上的观点一致[1][3] - 市场预期 Hassett 可能会推动更快的降息，导致两年期国债收益率下降至 346% 左右，十年期国债收益率低于 4%[33][80] - Hassett 的任命可能会导致美联储内部出现分歧，影响 2026 年及以后的货币政策[38] - 现任美联储主席 Jerome Powell 的任期到 2026 年 5 月结束，但特朗普总统可能希望尽快任命 Hassett [10][11] Market & Economic Outlook - 市场普遍认为，美联储的独立性至关重要，但特朗普政府希望确保所有利率都降低[17][18] - 经济数据喜忧参半，零售销售数据略有疲软，但信用卡追踪数据显示 10 月份有所回升，整体经济表现良好[23] - 预计 12 月或 1 月可能会降息 25 个基点，但 2026 年初的财政刺激可能会给通胀带来上行压力，导致美联储暂停降息[21][25][27] - 劳动力市场正在放缓，但财政刺激可能会稳定劳动力市场，并可能给就业带来上行压力[28][30] Crypto & SPACs - 讨论了加密货币领域的 SPACS（特殊目的收购公司）与数字资产 Treasury 公司的合并，类似于“Turducken”结构[46][48][49] - 几家 SPAC 公司正在与加密货币公司合作，但比特币价格自历史高位下跌 30%，可能影响投资者对这些交易的看法[50][52] - 以太坊的价格自 8 月份高点下跌约 40%，但 Dynamo 仍然看好以太坊的长期发展，并认为其在人工智能发展中扮演重要角色[57][58][62] - Hyperion DEFI 的股价自 7 月份以来下跌了约 75%，该公司正在通过构建新的收入来源来应对数字资产跟踪公司面临的挑战[65][66]

Over the past year, 1 in 3 condo owners in Manhattan who sold sold at a loss. Now, with the election of Mamdani, there are reports that the wealthy could flee even more, going to the suburbs or places like Florida or Texas. But the real reason why Manhattan real estate has been flat over the past decade, and what the wealthy are really doing is a bit more nuanced.I think prices got too high and they've had to come down. So of course people lost money. And you're reading about $100 million transactions, but ...

Nigeria’s central bank unexpectedly held interest rates steady on Tuesday, despite expectations that inflation will continue to cool in Africa’s largest oil producer. https://t.co/386WChmusv ...

Interest Rate Outlook - Deutsche Bank anticipates the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (0.25%) in December [1]

Core Insights - Total Canadian consumer debt increased by 4.1% year-over-year, reaching $2.6 trillion, driven by rising mortgage and non-mortgage balances [1][7] - Mortgage originations rose by 18% year-over-year, with borrowers favoring shorter-term fixed mortgages to navigate high interest rates [2][7] - Average new mortgage loan amounts increased by 4.1% year-over-year to $359,623, indicating ongoing affordability challenges [3][7] Consumer Debt Trends - Mortgage balances grew by 4.1% year-over-year to $1.89 trillion, while non-mortgage debt rose by 4.3% to $673 billion [1] - The number of credit-active consumers increased by 2.7% year-over-year, with total credit balances growing at a faster rate of 4.1% [1] - The average non-mortgage balance per consumer reached $27,100, up 2.6% year-over-year, reflecting a return to pre-pandemic growth rates [1] Mortgage Market Dynamics - Homeowners are prioritizing affordability by opting for shorter mortgage terms, which has led to increased turnover in the market [2] - The average new mortgage loan size varies significantly by city, with Quebec City seeing a 14.01% increase year-over-year [4] - Despite rising loan sizes, mortgage delinquency rates remain low, with serious delinquency rates at 0.26%, up 2 basis points year-over-year [6][10] Delinquency Trends - Early-stage delinquency rates have declined, while late-stage delinquency rates have risen, indicating a widening gap in financial health among consumers [9][10] - Ontario, Alberta, and Quebec have experienced the most significant increases in delinquency rates, with Alberta's rate rising to 2.31% [14][15] - Geographic disparities in delinquency rates reflect varying regional economic conditions, with Alberta facing the highest delinquency rate [11][14] Credit Card Market Insights - New credit card originations decreased by 8.6% year-over-year, although the pace of decline is slowing, suggesting early signs of stabilization [17] - Average new credit card limits increased by 4.8% to over $6,500, indicating a selective lending approach [17] - Average card balances per consumer rose by 1.9% year-over-year to $4,652, with below-prime consumers experiencing a sharper increase [18] Future Outlook - The Consumer Credit Industry Indicator fell by 6 points year-over-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the Canadian credit market [24] - Lenders are expected to adopt cautious strategies, focusing on targeted acquisition and disciplined credit line management to navigate the evolving credit landscape [23]

Core Viewpoint - The VanEck BDC Income ETF is experiencing significant challenges in 2025, primarily due to its sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations, which could worsen if rates continue to decline [1][5][9]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The VanEck BDC Income ETF is among the worst-performing ETFs of 2025, down approximately 10% year to date, despite having a high dividend yield of 12.38% [2][3][5]. - The ETF's performance is particularly poor compared to other dividend funds, indicating it is a laggard in its category [3][9]. Group 2: Business Development Companies (BDCs) - BDCs provide capital to distressed or small and midsize companies that traditional creditors often overlook, making them attractive to income investors due to their high yields [4][5]. - The structure of BDCs involves floating-rate notes (FRNs), which makes them sensitive to interest rate changes; they typically benefit from rising rates but suffer when rates fall [6][8]. Group 3: Dividend Reliability - Despite the high yield, the reliability of dividends from BDCs is questionable, with many experts predicting potential dividend cuts in the coming quarters due to lower interest rates [9][10]. - A recent survey indicated that 42% of respondents believe the operating environment for BDCs will worsen in 2026, with dividend and earnings pressure being a major concern [10][11].

Australia’s central bank may shift to raising interest rates next year if price pressures remain stubbornly strong and the labor market tightens further, said Luke Yeaman, chief economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia https://t.co/7I9Keva05X ...

Market Trends - Gold prices steadied after a surge [1] - Increased confidence in US interest rate cuts next month drove the surge [1]

You note the bull market just hit its three-year anniversary and historically you say that is a positive milestone. So let's start there. I'll double barrel this one.>> Sure. >> One, just walk me through that. Explain that.Why is that a positive milestone. And two, I guess Kevin, if I'm an investor, I hear that and I wonder, okay, so what what are though some big risks that could maybe break that pattern. >> Yeah.Anytime I see a significant milestone like that reached in the market, Josh, I turn to my resea ...