JUST IN: 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Bank of England cuts interest rates by 25bps to 4%. ...

Joining us right now, former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan. He's currently a partner at Solomare Capital and vice chairman at Teneo. And it's good to see you, sir.Morning. Uh I'm curious what you make of the dialogue here as it relates to both the tariff issue and the Fed issue. We have so many former Treasury Secretaries.Everybody's trying to figure out what's really going on. Everyone's a little worried about whether the numbers are even going to be real in the future. What do you think.Well, I think we' ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 $3 trillion Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates in September. https://t.co/zxVcDtOqwo ...

Elaine Chow was on yesterday and I I know you know she was uh I think she was labor secretary for eight years under um uh Bush too and she was your transportation secretary as well and she said you know the commissioner doesn't really even get involved uh with the actual minutia of of putting all these things together and there's no way that that it could have been that she could have chosen to rig these numbers uh to make them look bad and the these are statistical changes based on this antiquated system a ...

Market Outlook & Fed Policy - The market anticipates a potential rate cut, possibly larger than 25 basis points (0.25%) in September, influenced by a weakening labor market [2] - A 50 basis points (0.5%) rate cut is not currently priced into Treasury yields, potentially putting downward pressure on them, possibly around 4% [3] - The market views potential Fed rate cuts as an "insurance rate cut," which could prevent further weakening in the labor market [5][6] - If the Fed cuts rates too slowly, the economy could deteriorate; however, multiple rate cuts could fuel a market rally into year-end [7] - The market slowdown observed in GDP data has now impacted the jobs market, requiring market adjustment [9] - The stock market could reach S&P 500 levels of 6500 to 6700 by year-end, assuming fiscal stimulus arrives next year and the Fed proactively addresses economic issues [10][11] Fed Leadership & Rate Strategy - The new incoming governor nominee to replace Adriana Kugler is important, as they may adopt a more proactive approach to interest rates to stimulate the economy [11][14] - Markets are pricing in a potential funds rate of almost 3% from May to the end of next year, anticipating a more proactive Fed approach [15]

President Trump’s relentless calls for dramatic reductions in interest rates is drawing more attention to the way monetary policy decisions are made — and the people who make them https://t.co/3CRQ96hCLt ...

Everybody's ringing their hands about how President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics in response to that jobs poor fraud. It's the kind of thing Wall Street loves to worry about. But you know what, man.I take my queue from the market and the market roared today. Dow gaining 585 points. S&P up 1.47%.And NASDAQ pulling 1.95%. >> House of Pleasure. It seems we all have an opinion about the president's somewhat rash decision to be diplomatic about it.But I think that misses the real point ...

Federal Reserve Governance - President Trump is expected to appoint a new Federal Reserve governor following Adriana Cougler's resignation, providing an opportunity to influence the Fed's direction [1][2][3] - The appointment allows the president to potentially designate someone as chair or vice chair, further shaping the Fed's composition [3] Fed Independence and Political Pressure - Maintaining the Fed's independence is crucial for effective central banking, leading to lower, more stable inflation and avoiding variable output or employment costs [5][6] - Political pressure on the Fed complicates monetary policy by requiring the Fed to reinforce its focus on fundamentals to the public, legislators, and financial markets [7] - Undermining the Fed's credibility through political interference is detrimental and could lead to higher long-term interest rates, contradicting desired economic outcomes [8][9] Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis - The Fed's monetary policy decisions are based on evaluating economic and financial information, using models and scenario analyses to achieve maximum employment and price stability [7] - The Fed previously cut rates due to weak labor market reports and expectations of declining inflation, but revised data and tariff announcements altered the risk balance [14][15][16] - Future policy decisions will depend on incoming labor market and inflation data, with potential for a 25 basis point cut if service-side prices remain stable or decline [20][21][22]

The S&P 500 jumped 1.5% on Monday, Aug. 4, 2025, snapping a four-day losing streak amid a wave of optimism that interest rates could be headed lower. https://t.co/fkndkLc09o ...

Interest Rate Policy - The market is pricing in potentially as many as three rate cuts this year, but DoubleLine maintains a base case of two rate cuts in 2024 [12] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by approximately 25 basis points following the jobs report, indicating market anticipation of rate cuts [7][14] - The spread between the Fed funds rate and the 2-year Treasury widened to 70 basis points, a level reminiscent of conditions preceding a rate cut 12 months prior [7][8] Economic Data Reliability - Surveys for the jobs report are experiencing a declining response rate, with only 60% being returned [10] - Approximately 35% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) input prices are now estimated or "imputed," raising concerns about data reliability [11] - Job reports have a tendency to be revised lower, with 45 out of 48 reports under the current administration being revised downwards after the initial release [13] Labor Market Analysis - The jobs report showed a revision of over 250,000 jobs [7] - The Fed is perceived to be at its employment target but not at its inflation target [6]