The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points today.Here is the case for such an aggressive cut: https://t.co/DlaOiIewo4 ...

Stocks closed slightly lower Tuesday, a day before the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 set fresh all-time intraday highs before trailing off, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3%. https://t.co/MC67sToHeJ ...

Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first cut in about a year [5] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is being challenged, particularly during the Trump term [6][8] - Concerns exist regarding political influence on the Fed, potentially impacting its decision-making process [11] - The Fed's actions significantly influence various aspects of the economy, including mortgage rates, small business loans, and grocery prices [12] - The market is closely watching the Fed's guidance on future rate cuts and the overall economic outlook [21] Economic Disparity & Retail Sales - Retail sales beat expectations in August, but spending is largely driven by the top 10% of earners [13][15] - The top 10% of earners accounted for 50% of spending in the second quarter of the year [15] - The top 10% of earners own about 90% of the stocks, benefiting significantly from stock market gains [17] - The bottom 90% are struggling with wage growth slowing down while prices increase [16] Housing Market - The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remains high, around 613%, similar to a year ago [22] - High mortgage rates are freezing the housing market, as people are reluctant to sell due to lower existing mortgage rates [22] TikTok Deal - A deal involving Donald Trump and US investors is nearing completion to create a new US entity to operate TikTok [24] - Concerns remain about the Chinese algorithm continuing to drive TikTok's operations [25]

Ahead of the Senate Banking Committee's confirmation vote on Steven Myron to be Federal Reserve Governor, you told your colleagues that if you're in favor of Federal Reserve independence, then you should vote no. Myron was confirmed by the full Senate last night. Today, he is participating in the Fed's monetary policy meeting, but he has not resigned from his position at the White House.He's on a leave of absence. How could Myron threaten Federal Reserve independence. So look, Myron is just there to be Dona ...

Fed Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, but there may be three Fed voters dissenting, potentially advocating for a 50 basis point cut [1] - The market will closely monitor the Fed's summary of economic projections, particularly the dot plot, to gauge the expected policy rate for the current and subsequent years [2] - The market is pricing in nearly 150 basis points of cuts for the next year, expecting the Fed to go below 3%, which may be difficult for the Fed to indicate [3] - The market expects the Fed to cut rates drastically, anticipating a new Fed chair next year to aggressively save the cycle and prolong the expansion [11][12] Bond Market Dynamics - The president's influence on the Fed is priced into the term premium, which is the value in extending out the bond curve [4] - Forward rates indicate that the market expects 10-year Treasury yields to be close to 550 basis points (55%) in 10 years, the highest in over 20 years [5] - The market may be pricing in too much term premium, as 550 basis points (55%) growth for the next 20 years is unlikely [6] - The market is already pricing in the Fed getting back to its 2% inflation target [13] Economic Conditions & Inflation - The economy is showing a two-speed dynamic, with high-income consumers continuing to spend, making the inflation story tricky [8] - Core inflation, excluding shelter, grew at 270 basis points (27%) last month, the highest level in the last two years, indicating high-income consumers are doing well [9] - Small businesses are suffering due to high interest rates, leading to firing and a higher unemployment rate [9] - Tariff policies and immigration could lead to stagflationary conditions, with lower growth and higher inflation [14]

The Federal Reserve’s announcement on interest rates tomorrow may prove to be far less consequential for the central bank than another pending decision over which it has no say https://t.co/bsdjbvrm4X ...

Let's start with Lisa Cook. She's involved in this Fed decision, and yet the president still seems to be trying to get her off the Fed. How is that happening and how might still some legal actions impact anything she does at this Fed meeting. Well, it doesn't look like anything's going to impact what she does at this Fed meeting because she's already there.And we have not heard that the White House has actually filed its appeal to the Supreme Court. So we're not expecting any immediate moves from the justic ...

🔥 UPDATE: Odds of a 25 basis point cut at tomorrow’s Fed meeting have climbed to 95%, per Kalshi. https://t.co/VaofR29Tng ...

Stock futures are inching higher ahead of the start of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting to set interest rates. Here's what investors need to know today. https://t.co/6G8oM6yvU4 ...

The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points.They are very far behind the curve. Jerome Powell should fix this mess now. https://t.co/btsp6A1XSv ...