Australia’s central bank decided that lowering interest rates for a third time in four meetings would not be consistent with its strategy of easing in a “cautious and gradual” manner https://t.co/KqFD5M8Q2B ...

It's been more than two weeks now that here in Washington, President Trump has been facing the eyeire of especially some of his biggest supporters for not doing more to release the unsealed Epstein files. And that's where the last 48 hours, it's been sort of a notable change in tact or messaging from the president. He's been posting everything from frustration with the Washington commanders for not changing their name back to what it used to be, threatening that if they don't do so, he won't let them move i ...

Market Outlook - The market may experience volatility due to complacency, especially before the August 1st deadlines [2] - A market pullback should be viewed as a potential buying opportunity, but caution is advised in the near term [5] - The market is pricing in a perfect scenario regarding tariffs and Federal Reserve actions [5] - The technology and growth sectors are pricing in perfection and not considering existing risks [4] Investment Strategy - Rebalancing portfolios is necessary, especially after recent rapid increases [3] - Diversification into international stocks is recommended, as they have room to catch up with the US [7] - International stocks are relatively cheaper compared to the US, which is considered expensive, especially in large-cap growth [8] - Investors should be cautious about the growthiest part of the market, as valuations may be overextended [16] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - There is less than a 50% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September [10] - Inflation is not moving in the right direction, limiting the Fed's flexibility to cut rates [11]

Interest Rate and Inflation Expectations - The market is pricing in both potential rate cuts and higher inflation, creating conflicting signals for the Federal Reserve [3] - The analyst believes inflation has bottomed for the year, referencing break-even spreads as an indicator [2] - The analyst anticipates no rate cut in the immediate term, but acknowledges the possibility of a 50 basis points cut if labor market conditions deteriorate [4] Treasury Market Strategy - The firm is currently positioned for no rate cuts, with a "Steve Burner trade" involving being long on the two-year Treasury and short on the ten-year Treasury [5][6] - The firm has been largely ignoring the 30-year part of the Treasury market, anticipating further upward pressure on rates in that segment [9] - A steeper yield curve is expected if monetary policy is loosened amidst existing inflation and tariff pressures [8] Portfolio Construction and Risk Management - The portfolio includes short-duration credit, which is expected to rally if rates decline, providing dual exposure [13] - The firm is prioritizing stability and managing volatility, avoiding stretching for valuation or taking on significant risk due to unpredictable rate cuts [17] - The portfolio incorporates floating rate debt to benefit if there are no rate cuts [18] - The firm is considering non-dollar trades for the portfolio at some point this year [18] Fiscal Policy and Global Sovereign Debt - The analyst expresses concern about increased government spending, noting the debt limit was raised by $5 trillion [14] - There is pressure in sovereign debt globally, influenced by factors like the Japanese market and elections [15]

Investment and Economic Development in Pennsylvania - Pennsylvania is positioned at the center of the energy revolution with the second largest energy production in the US and fourth largest natural gas reserves globally [2][3] - A summit in Pennsylvania resulted in $92 billion of investment announcements, including $36 billion in data centers and $50 billion in energy infrastructure and production [4] - The United Arab Emirates committed to investing $140 billion (1.4 trillion) in the United States over the next ten years, suggesting further investment potential beyond the initial $92 billion [7][8] Energy Sector Transformation - Pennsylvania is undergoing a transition from coal to natural gas, with investments in transmission and distribution infrastructure [4][5] - Westinghouse Corporation plans to build ten nuclear reactors over the next ten years, signaling a rebirth of nuclear power in the United States [13] - Pennsylvania is embracing nuclear power, with existing facilities like Three Mile Island being refurbished and new modular reactors being considered [15][16] Policy and Regulatory Environment - Permitting reform at both the federal and state levels is crucial for energy infrastructure development [10][11] - The speaker supports all forms of energy, including hydro, but emphasizes the need for consistent baseload power from sources like natural gas and nuclear, as opposed to intermittent sources like wind and solar [18][20] - The speaker opposes subsidies for clean energy alternatives, arguing they contribute to inflation and that the market should drive innovation [19][20] Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve - The speaker believes worries about inflation resulting from tariffs are not materializing and hopes for a future rate cut [24] - The speaker acknowledges that higher interest rates are a struggle for working families and that addressing this is part of delivering on promises to them [25]

That was Treasury Secretary Scott Besson on Squawkbox touting great inflation numbers after the president has repeatedly called for Fed chair Jay Powell to not just lower rates but also to be replaced as Fed chair. But our next guest says firing him could actually push inflation higher. Let's bring in Greg Eb.He's the chief economics commentator at the Wall Street Journal. Greg, it's good to see you. And I I assume because you know the the whole idea you run policy looser than you're supposed to, you get hi ...

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - The possibility of Federal Reserve rate cuts is decreasing due to a strong stock market and overall healthy economy [1][2] - The market's expectation for September has shifted from a 25 basis points rate cut to no change [2] - Short-term rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve aim to stimulate the economy, but fiscal challenges require attention [8][9] US Fiscal Challenges - The 30-year Treasury yield has reached 5%, the highest since 2007, indicating increased borrowing costs for the US government [3][4] - The US has $36 trillion in debt with an average interest rate of 33%, resulting in $12 trillion annual interest expense [5][6] - A rise in average interest rate to 5% on the debt could increase annual interest expense to nearly $2 trillion [6] - The US faces a fiscal crisis due to rising interest rates and continuous deficit spending [7] Deficit & Potential Solutions - The deficit's impact is now significant due to rising interest rates [11] - At current deficit levels, refinancing debt at current rates could lead to interest spending exceeding major expenditures like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, or the military [12] - Potential solutions involve slowing government spending, increasing revenue (including considering consumption taxes), and deregulation to stimulate economic growth [14][16]

Market Performance & Outlook - S&P and Nasdaq hit fresh record highs [1] - The economy is regaining its strength, potentially influencing the need for rate cuts [1] - Market investors are not overly concerned about high valuations [2] - Equity markets are excited by companies overcoming macro challenges [3] Corporate Earnings & Legislation - Expected earnings are around $65 this quarter, or $260 annually [3] - Tariffs and global challenges have impacted profits [4] - The new legislation includes benefits for companies such as R&D expensing and immediate expensing of CapEx [6] - The corporate tax rate remained at 21% [6] Bond Market & Monetary Policy - The Fed needs to demonstrate its independence [2] - The Fed should communicate its commitment to 2% inflation [7] - There's an upward trend in long-term yields, with the 20-year bond reaching 5% last week [9] - Premature rate cuts by the Fed are not advisable [10]

Rates for new 30-year loans inched lower again, bouncing around their highest level since June. Rates moved lower for many other loan types as well. https://t.co/4EJ1oHSrlt ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **US economy**, highlighting trends in inflation, consumer spending, and labor market conditions. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Inflation Trends**: Core CPI increased by 0.23% month-over-month (MoM) and core PCE is implied to rise by 0.26% MoM, marking the fourth consecutive month of slower inflation [1][6][10]. 2. **Consumer Spending**: There is a noticeable slowdown in consumer spending compared to last year, with retail sales showing a solid advance in June after weaker readings earlier [1][28]. 3. **Labor Market**: The labor market is loosening, with stable continuing jobless claims but an expected rise in the unemployment rate due to declining participation [1][22][25]. 4. **Federal Reserve Policy**: The Federal Reserve is on track to resume rate cuts in September, with potential dissent from up to two governors at the upcoming meeting [1][19][39]. 5. **Tariff Effects**: The pass-through of tariffs to consumer prices has been minimal so far, but there are indications that it could increase in the coming months [1][10][14]. 6. **Core Goods Prices**: Core goods prices have shown subdued growth, with a significant decline in used car prices contributing to this trend [1][6][11]. 7. **Housing Market**: The housing sector is experiencing weakness, with declining prices and a drop in single-family housing permits and starts, indicating that supply exceeds demand [1][32][34]. 8. **Durable Goods Orders**: A significant drop in durable goods orders is expected after a large increase in May, primarily due to normalizing aircraft orders [1][58][61]. Additional Important Content 1. **Inflation Expectations**: Inflation expectations remain anchored, with the University of Michigan's 5-10 year expectation decreasing from 4.4% to 3.6% [1][19]. 2. **Consumer Sentiment**: There has been a modest improvement in consumer sentiment, with the University of Michigan sentiment index rising to 61.8 in July [1][45]. 3. **Economic Growth Forecast**: The report anticipates a 2.3% increase in Q2 real GDP, indicating continued economic expansion despite a slowdown [1][65]. 4. **Employment Trends**: Initial jobless claims remain low, suggesting limited layoffs, but there is an expectation for an increase in claims in the coming weeks [1][57][58]. 5. **Manufacturing Sector**: The manufacturing sector is showing signs of stagnation, with the ISM Manufacturing index remaining in contraction [1][41][47]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the US economy, inflation trends, consumer behavior, and labor market dynamics.