Core Viewpoint - The stock market is expected to see a resurgence in real estate stocks and funds due to a decrease in the Consumer Price Index to 2.7%, which is below the consensus forecast of 3.0% or higher, leading to lower interest rate expectations and boosting rate-sensitive sectors like real estate [1][2]. Real Estate Market Outlook - The prolonged government shutdown is distorting economic data, but the market is reacting positively with hopes for lower interest rates, enhancing the appeal of real estate equities and REITs as yield-oriented investments heading into 2026 [2]. - The U.S. real estate market is currently stable but slightly below average in buyer activity, primarily due to affordability issues and a lack of desirable housing options [3]. - Homebuilding stocks are expected to perform well in 2026, driven by lower inflation and potential economic stimulants such as tax cuts [3]. Key Real Estate Stocks - **Rocket Companies (NYSE:RKT)**: - Year-to-date performance is 65.4%, with a current trading price of $18.90 per share and an average 12-month price target of $22 to $25, indicating an implied upside of 11% [5][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from lower mortgage rates and its acquisitions, positioning it favorably in the housing market for 2026 [6][7]. - **Prologis Inc. (NYSE:PLD)**: - Year-to-date performance is 20.8%, trading at $127 per share with an average 12-month price target of $130 to $132, reflecting a 4% implied upside [8][9]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from increased demand in logistics and industrial properties, particularly due to e-commerce growth and lower borrowing costs [8][9]. - **Digital Realty Trust (NYSE:DLR)**: - Year-to-date performance is -16%, currently trading at $148 per share with an average 12-month price target of $197 to $199, indicating a 30% upside [10][11]. - The company is expected to see significant revenue and profit growth driven by digital transformation and AI workloads, with a projected 11% revenue CAGR and 12% EBITDA CAGR from 2026 to 2029 [11]. Investment Trends - Investors are advised to be cautious, particularly avoiding traditional enclosed shopping malls and highly leveraged development REITs, as these sectors face structural challenges and risks in a higher-rate environment [12][13]. - There is a unique opportunity for investors to capitalize on quality real estate opportunities amid market transitions, with stronger fundamentals than suggested by headlines [14].

Group 1 - US inflation data showed a year-over-year CPI of 2.7% for November, lower than the expected 3.1%, with core inflation at 2.6%, which typically benefits risk assets like Bitcoin [3] - The November inflation report is considered unreliable due to a six-week government shutdown that led to estimates rather than actual market data, particularly affecting rents and services [4] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges the distortion in inflation data and maintains a cautious stance, indicating no immediate need for further rate cuts, which impacts Bitcoin's trading behavior as it is increasingly viewed as a macro asset [5] Group 2 - Despite three rate cuts, real yields on 10-year TIPS remain around 1.9%, reducing the urgency for investors to chase Bitcoin compared to the negative real rates seen in 2020-21 [7] - Bitcoin's price struggles to break the $90,000 mark, indicating a significant sell wall that is being actively refreshed, suggesting strategic selling rather than panic [1][2]

Market Overview - Stocks remained relatively unchanged as bond yields increased following a strong third-quarter GDP report, which reduced expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by President Trump's anticipated appointment of a new Fed chair who may advocate for lower interest rates, which historically benefits stock prices [1] Company Insights - Alphabet has been added back to the Bullpen stocks watch list, with the acknowledgment that exiting the stock in late March was a mistake; concerns regarding antitrust issues have diminished and the launch of Gemini 3 has alleviated fears about AI [1] - Nvidia's stock opened lower, but it was argued that the decline was unjustified; the company is expected to be a major player with its next-generation Vera Rubin chip platform, and past bearish sentiments against Nvidia are considered misguided [1] Additional Stocks Discussed - Other stocks mentioned in the rapid-fire segment include Prologis, ServiceNow, Johnson & Johnson, Reddit, and Tyson Foods [1]

Group 1 - Industrial production for November increased by 0.2%, exceeding expectations of a 0.1% rise, marking the best performance since June of this year [1] - Capacity utilization reached 76.0%, the highest level since July of this year, indicating improvement in manufacturing despite not operating at full capacity [2] - Interest rates have been rising following stronger-than-expected GDP growth and price index data, with the 10-year Treasury yield up by 2 basis points and the 2-year yield up by 3 basis points [2] Group 2 - The dollar is approaching a critical level, with a potential close under 98.14, which would be the lowest in two and a half months, indicating a possible weakening trend [3]

Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization - Industrial production increased by 02% in November, surpassing expectations of 01%, marking the best performance since June [1] - Capacity utilization reached 760% in November, exceeding the expected 759%, achieving the highest level since July [2] - These figures indicate an improvement in industrial activity, despite manufacturing not operating at full capacity [2] Interest Rates & Treasury Market - Interest rates have been rising following a higher-than-expected price index on GDP and stronger GDP growth [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield is up by two basis points to 419% [2] - The 2-year Treasury yield is up by three basis points to 454% [2] - There is a slight flattening bias observed in the Treasury complex [3] Currency Market - If the US dollar closes below 9814, it will be the lowest close in two and a half months [3]

GDP & Economic Growth - US GDP for the third quarter showed a massive upside surprise, coming in at 43% versus a prior of 38% and a survey expectation of 33% [1] - The GDP uptick was unexpected by many [2] - Aggregate demand was growing at a rapid rate [5] Federal Reserve & Interest Rates - The unexpectedly high GDP figure raises questions about the Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 075 percentage points in September [5] - The GDP data may influence Fed officials as they consider recalibrating interest rates in January, especially given the divided opinions within the FOMC regarding the last rate cut [6][7] - The front end of the curve on the two-year saw a big spike up to 35351 in yields following the 43% GDP reading [3] Economic Data & Market Reaction - Durable goods came in much worse than expected, dropping by 22% [2] - The GDP data is considered stale due to delays caused by a government shutdown [1][3]

Welcome back to Squawkbox. Rick Santelli here live at CME HQ with some delayed but very important data points. We'll be looking at October preliminary durable goods.Philly Fed and GDP second time around the block delayed third quarter numbers. We're looking for 3.3% zoom zoom zoom 4.3%. 4.3%.That is a nice jump. And I know many may question day the gathering, but on the surface this would be the strongest quarter going back to the third quarter of 2023 when it was 4.7%. This is strong.3.5% on consumption bl ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index funds returned more than 18% in 2025 through December 11, marking a record high and the third consecutive year of significant returns [2] - The U.S. stock market experienced historic drops due to concerns over tariffs, interest rates, and potential bubbles in artificial intelligence technology [1] Tariff Impact - President Trump's announcement of severe tariffs on "Liberation Day" in April triggered fears of a recession and inflation, leading to a nearly 5% drop in the S&P 500 on April 3, followed by a 6% decline the next day due to China's retaliatory threats [3] - The tariffs affected not only the stock market but also led to a decline in the value of the U.S. dollar and created unease in the U.S. Treasury market [3] Federal Reserve Actions - Trump paused the tariffs on April 9 after observing instability in the U.S. bond market, which alleviated some investor concerns [4] - The Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts during the year contributed to a positive market environment, alongside strong corporate profit reports and enthusiasm for artificial intelligence technology [5] - Trump's personal lobbying for lower interest rates marked a significant departure from the traditional independence of the Federal Reserve, which typically makes decisions without political influence [6]

Core Viewpoint - Dividend-paying stocks are expected to perform well in 2026 due to declining interest rates and the anticipated continuation of this trend, which will drive demand for dividend stocks and lower borrowing costs for certain sectors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Realty Income - Realty Income is a high-quality REIT with a current dividend yield of 5.72% and a market capitalization of $52.1 billion [7][12]. - The company has a strong track record, having declared 666 consecutive monthly dividends and increased its dividend for over 30 years [9]. - Realty Income focuses on stable tenants less affected by online competition, with a diversified portfolio of 15,500 properties primarily leased to commercial and industrial tenants [10][12][13]. - The company's tenants include 7-Eleven, Dollar General, and Walgreens, which provide non-discretionary items and services [13]. Group 2: NextEra Energy - NextEra Energy is a leading electric utility and renewable energy company with a dividend yield of 2.83% and a market capitalization of $167 billion [14][19]. - The company operates Florida Power & Light Company, the largest rate-regulated electric utility in the U.S., benefiting from Florida's growing population [15]. - NextEra is the world's largest producer of renewable energy from solar and wind, positioning it well for future growth [15]. - The company has increased its dividend for 31 consecutive years and plans to raise it by 10% through 2026, followed by targeted increases of 6% in 2027 and 2028 [18].

the average cost of a car has gone up an incredible amount. And what we're seeing is then the average loan value for auto loans has increased more than any other loan value. And that may sound like okay, but if you think about it, mortgages tend to be the one that grows the most because house prices have appreciated so much over time.So the fact that the average auto loan has grown more than the average mortgage has over that 15-year period is telling. Okay. Secondly, obviously there is this double whammy.S ...