Hi, Chair Pal. Thank you. Uh well, can you give us a little more about what kind of economic data does the Fed need to see before uh you'll be ready to cut.I mean, do you need inflation back nearly to target. Uh are there other things in the pricing that you look for. Do you need to see weakening in the job market.What kind of things are you are you looking for. I mean, ultimately, it's it could be any could be any of those things, right. But but you know if you saw that the risks to the two goals were movi ...

RT MartyParty (@martypartymusic)Dovish tone - FED REMOVES LANGUAGE SAYING UNCERTAINTY HAS DIMINISHED. Expect rate cute in next meeting or sooner.I predicted no rate change and possible emergency meeting before September 17th meeting which already shot up to 61% probability of a 25 bps cut.https://t.co/MHMUlTIYDQ ...

62% chance of 1 rate cut in September headed into Powell's presserLet's see how that holds up https://t.co/t4kWK0QgAT ...

All right, why don't we start with your word of the day. It's Smoresus board. What What are you seeing out there.Hey, listen. I could barely sleep last night. There's something for everyone this week.It's the biggest week of earnings and we've got everything across the board from an economic perspective. You've got growth data, you've got inflation data, you've got jobs reports, and by the way, Frank, we also have a Fed meeting today with a very exciting potentially uh postgame presser. So, big week board f ...

Interest Rate Scenarios - Base case: No interest rate cut or raise is expected, with a 99.5% likelihood [1][2] - Bull case: A surprise interest rate cut is considered extremely unlikely but would signal a dovish Fed stance, potentially leading to hyperinflation [1] - Bear case: An interest rate hike is considered a chaotic scenario [1] Market Outlook - The market has already priced in the "no cut, no raise" scenario [1] - ETH's current lows around 3710 are expected to be the weekly lows [1] - Institutional buying is expected to drive the market upwards in the coming weeks [1] Potential Outcomes - Abundance is expected in August [1] - In a bull case scenario, BTC could potentially reach $600,000 [1] - In a bear case scenario, all markets could descend into chaos [1]

Market Overview - Some firms suggest bonds might be a better investment than stocks in August and September [1] - The market is underappreciating the impact of trade policy, even if it's "less bad" [2] - Signal to noise ratio in the market is currently very high, making it difficult to discern clear trends [5] - Credit markets are being pulled along by equity markets and not leading [9] Trade and Tariffs - Trade deals, specifically tariff deals, are being finalized, but the outcomes are not particularly positive [2] - A potential 40% tariff deal with China is not considered beneficial for growth or consumption [2] - $350 billion of tariff revenue will ultimately come from consumers [3] - The market may be too complacent about the long-term impact of tariffs [4] Labor Market and Economy - Underlying data suggests some weakening in the labor market, with negative revisions averaging 75,000 jobs per month [7] - The Fed might consider a rate cut as insurance against global disruptions caused by trade policies, potentially a "bearish rate cut" [13][14] Credit Market - Credit signals had previously flashed yellow, indicating some concern, but have since calmed down [8] - CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligation) market issuance is up 30-50% year-to-date compared to long-term averages [10] - The market is starting to feel like a more defensive position is warranted [11]

The largest week for finance is now upon us. And this is going to be the week that we should be locked in, paying attention, and focused on what's happening not only around price action, but also around the things that factor in to price action either being very positive or negative. And those factors that we're actually focused on is what the Fed decides to do this week on top of all the other financial events happening as well this week, which we will go over in this video.So, let's first start off with c ...

Market Overview - The Nasdaq Composite Index has been reaching new records, driven by strong corporate earnings, AI optimism, and expectations of Federal Reserve policy support [1] - ETFs tracking the Nasdaq, such as Invesco QQQ and QQQM, have gained momentum alongside the index [1] Earnings Season - The second-quarter earnings season has started strong, with S&P 500 earnings from 62 companies up 9.3% year-over-year, supported by a 5.8% increase in revenues [2] - Approximately 82.3% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, indicating a favorable outlook for future earnings [2] AI Impact - The generative AI trend is a significant growth driver for Nasdaq, with increased demand for data centers, GPUs, and AI-focused software [4] - Companies like Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, and Palantir are experiencing heightened investor interest due to their involvement in AI [4] Interest Rate Expectations - Markets are anticipating at least one rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year, which would benefit high-growth tech stocks sensitive to borrowing costs [5] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech may provide further insights into monetary policy direction [5] Global Investment Trends - International investors are increasingly returning to U.S. tech stocks, viewing them as a safe haven amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty in other regions [6] - This trend is contributing to capital inflows into Nasdaq-tracking ETFs like QQQ and QQQM [6] ETF Highlights - Invesco QQQ (QQQ) has an AUM of $357.1 billion and an average daily volume of 44 million shares, charging 20 bps in annual fees [7] - Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM) has lower annual fees of 15 bps and an AUM of $55.1 billion, with a focus on the top three firms [9] - First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Fund (QQEW) has an AUM of $1.9 billion and charges 55 bps in annual fees [10] - Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (QQQJ) holds 111 securities with an AUM of $629.1 million and charges 15 bps in annual fees [11] - Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Shares (QQQE) has an AUM of $1.2 billion and charges 35 bps in annual fees [12] Conclusion - The momentum of the Nasdaq is likely to be tested with major earnings reports from tech companies, but the current sentiment remains bullish [13]

V i e w p o i n t | 18 Jul 2025 10:58:05 ET │ 11 pages US Economics What the Fed Said – Doves and Hawks Remain Divided CITI'S TAKE Governor Waller strongly argued for cutting rates at the July 30th FOMC meeting and signaled he is prepared to dissent from the consensus not to cut. He shares with us the view that tariffs will likely cause a one-time price level effect and not provoke persistent inflation. We also agree with his characterization of labor markets as "on the edge," despite seemingly solid headli ...

Dollar Analysis - The market is consistently attempting to identify a bottom for the dollar, but a substantial dollar rebound is not anticipated [5] - Any upward movement in the dollar is expected to be short-lived [6] - Reserve managers globally are still overexposed to the dollar due to unhedged purchases of US stocks, which could lead to further dollar selling during any rebound [7][8] - The Fed is perceived to be under pressure to maintain an accommodative policy relative to inflation, which is viewed negatively for the dollar [2][3][4] Stock Market Outlook - Short-term, a positive fiscal environment and favorable macro data suggest a bullish outlook for stocks, although gains may be moderate and volatile [9] - Earnings season is expected to support the stock market in the short term due to lowered expectations [10] - By August, a weakening in stock prices is anticipated [10] Economic Factors - CPI data will influence the dollar's value in the coming weeks, particularly concerning pressure on the Federal Reserve from the administration [2] - The impact of tariffs is considered a significant driver, but the specifics of implementation remain uncertain in the short term [8]