A great company with temporary uncertainty When President Trump recently announced 25% tariffs on cars that aren't made in America, General Motors (GM 0.80%) was one of the hardest-hit auto stocks, and for good reason: About 30% of the vehicles GM sells in the United States are built in either Canada or Mexico, and another 18% are built in other foreign countries. This could certainly weigh on GM's business in the short term, but from a long-term perspective, GM is an extremely cheap stock with a lot to lik ...

Market Performance - Major indexes showed mixed results on the last trading day of Q1, with the Dow up +1.00% (+417 points), while the Nasdaq dipped -0.14% (-23 points) [1] - The Dow has performed best year-to-date, with companies like Chevron (CVX) gaining +15% since the start of the year [2] Company Earnings - PVH, the parent company of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, reported Q4 earnings of $3.27 per share, exceeding estimates by 8 cents, with revenues of $2.37 billion, above the Zacks consensus of $2.34 billion [3] - PVH's next-quarter earnings guidance is slightly below current estimates, but revenues are expected to perform better; the company announced a $500 million share repurchase program, leading to an +11% increase in shares during late trading [4] Upcoming Economic Indicators - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for February is expected to show 7.7 million openings, consistent with the previous month [5] - Construction Spending for February is anticipated to rebound to +0.3% from a prior -0.2% [6] - ISM Manufacturing for March is expected to drop below the 50 threshold to 49.5%, indicating a potential deceleration in growth [7]

Lululemon Athletica Today LULU Lululemon Athletica $293.06 -48.47 (-14.19%) 52-Week Range $226.01 ▼ $423.32 P/E Ratio 21.16 Price Target $380.72 Add to Watchlist Lululemon NASDAQ: LULU shares dropped precipitously following its 2025 guidance because it was weak. However, the guidance calls for growth and weakness, not because of some operational shortcoming but rather the economy at large and general headwind for retailers. Lululemon has no control over the macroeconomic situation, only its operations, whic ...

Core Viewpoint - Qifu Technology, Inc. is proposing a convertible senior notes offering of US$600 million due 2030, aimed at qualified institutional buyers, with an additional option of US$90 million for initial purchasers [1] Group 1: Notes Offering Details - The proposed offering consists of convertible senior notes with a total principal amount of US$600 million, maturing on April 1, 2030 [1][3] - The notes will be general unsecured obligations of the company, with holders having the option to require repurchase on April 3, 2028, at 100% of the principal amount plus accrued interest [3] - The notes will be convertible under certain conditions, with cash-par settlement upon conversion, allowing the company to pay cash or a combination of cash and American depositary shares (ADSs) [4][5] Group 2: Use of Proceeds - The net proceeds from the notes offering will be used for repurchasing ADSs and/or class A ordinary shares under a newly established share repurchase plan, which is expected to be accretive to earnings per ADS upon closing [2][11] - The March 2025 Share Repurchase Plan allows for concurrent repurchases at the time of pricing the notes and additional repurchases over time [7][10] Group 3: Repurchase Plan Mechanics - The concurrent repurchase will involve buying back ADSs from certain purchasers of the notes in off-market transactions, facilitating initial hedges for those investors [8][9] - Future repurchases may occur on the open market or through other means, adhering to applicable regulations [10] Group 4: Company Overview - Qifu Technology is a leading AI-empowered Credit-Tech platform in China, providing technology services to assist financial institutions and consumers throughout the loan lifecycle [16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company achieved a 180% year-on-year increase in oil production, with the Permian contributing over 60% to cash flows [7][10] - Proved reserves grew approximately 20% year-over-year despite pricing headwinds [18] - The company reported net revenue interest production in Pennsylvania at approximately 30 million cubic feet a day, up 85% from the daily average during 2024 [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Permian business saw significant growth with an investment of $24 million, leading to increased production and undeveloped acreage [14] - In the Marcellus, production curtailments were estimated at 20% to 25% of net total, but the environment improved in the fourth quarter, leading to a strong start in 2025 [9][13] - The company established a new project area in Alberta, Canada, with a joint venture that adds multi-year economic inventory for approximately a $7 million drilling carry [7][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Marcellus experienced sub $2 per Mcf net wellhead pricing, but pricing improved significantly in early 2025, with realized prices over $3.90 per Mcf [9][12] - The gathering system throughput in the Marcellus is up over 50% from the average in the third quarter of 2024 [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains committed to its fixed dividend while exploring opportunities to reduce share count [10] - Future development in the Permian is expected to pick back up, with significant undeveloped acreage available [14][15] - The company is focused on capital allocation across multiple project areas, including a new project in Alberta [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the Marcellus market, indicating a strong start to 2025 and improved cash flows [11][13] - The company is in a strong position with over $50 million of liquidity and strong free cash flows [17] Other Important Information - The operator in the Marcellus has provided clarity on a multi-year plan, which includes development scheduling for 2026 and beyond [41] - The company has not been active in share repurchases year-to-date but remains opportunistic in its capital allocation strategy [49] Q&A Session Summary Question: How many wells were drilled and completed in Alberta in 2024? - The company drilled 2 gross wells, 1 net, in the small project called Killam, and 2 gross wells in the larger Garrington area [28][30] Question: How many wells will be drilled in the larger area in 2025? - There are plans for another 2 wells to be drilled in the larger area over the remainder of 2025 [31][32] Question: What are the expectations regarding the Marcellus operator's plans into 2026? - The operator's multi-year plan includes development scheduling for 2026, 2027, and 2028, which has been included in the reserve report [41][42] Question: What is the company's hedge position for natural gas? - The company is hedged through October at roughly 30% of gas production, with plans to be aggressive in the winter months [46][47] Question: Has the company been active in share repurchases year-to-date? - The company has not been active in share repurchases but considers it an option for capital allocation [48][49]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a GAAP pretax net income of $8.6 million, or $0.70 per diluted share for Q4 2024 [17] - The net income after tax was $5.9 million, which included a $1.1 million increase in Finance Receivables segment revenue and a $1.3 million increase in Pharmaceutical Development segment revenue [18] - The non-GAAP tangible finance book value per share increased by 8.3% year-over-year to $21.15 as of December 31, 2024 [19] - Overall operating expenses decreased to $6.6 million in Q4 2024 from $6.8 million in Q4 2023 [19][20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Finance Receivables segment revenue increased by $1.1 million year-over-year, primarily due to a $2.3 million increase in interest and fees earned on newly funded loans and royalties [18] - The Enteris CDMO division, now rebranded as MOD3 Pharma, reported revenue of $3.6 million, tripling from $1.2 million in 2023 [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The effective yield of the portfolio for Q4 2024 was reported at 15.5% [13] - The company had $13.8 million of gross finance receivables on non-accrual, with a 15% CECL reserve, resulting in a net non-accrual total of $11.7 million [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to declare a dividend following the closing of the final royalty transaction, with an initial expectation of a one-time special dividend rather than a recurring one [30] - The MOD3 CDMO division is focused on achieving unsubsidized profitability by year-end 2025 [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in entering 2025 on solid footing, with a healthy loan portfolio and significant cash reserves [24] - The company anticipates continued growth in the MOD3 division and is in regular contact with its strategic partner [15] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased approximately 100,000 shares for $1.6 million since September 30, 2024, and continues to view share repurchase as an attractive use of capital [7][33] - The company expects to close a transaction to sell its remaining performing royalty portfolio for $34 million, which is expected to close in approximately two weeks [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the dividend, is it a one-time special dividend or an ongoing dividend? - Management anticipates initially a one-time special dividend, with the possibility of additional special dividends in the future, but does not foresee a recurring dividend at this time [30] Question: What is the status of the current buyback program? - Management confirmed that there is room for continued buybacks and expects to reauthorize the program for another year, viewing it as an attractive use of capital [33]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net sales increase of 3% to $667 million for the fourth quarter, driven by new stores and comparable sales growth, with an 8.5% increase when excluding the impact of the previous year's extra week of sales [11][12] - Adjusted net income was $73 million, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.19, and adjusted EBITDA at $109 million, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 16.4% for the quarter [15][16] - Gross margin increased by 20 basis points to 40.7%, primarily due to lower supply chain costs, although there was a slight decrease in merchandise margin driven by product mix [13][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable store sales growth for the fourth quarter was 2.8%, with increases in both transactions and basket size [11][12] - The best-performing categories included housewares, food and candy, electronics, and room air [11] - Membership in "Ali's Army" increased over 8% to over 15.1 million members, with sales to members representing over 80% of total sales [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended the quarter with 559 stores across 31 states, marking a 9% year-over-year increase, having opened 13 new stores in the quarter and 50 for the fiscal year [12] - The company is positioned to benefit from the closure of competitors, particularly Big Lots, which presents a significant market share opportunity [37][72] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced an agreement to acquire 40 additional store leases from former Big Lots locations, which are expected to generate outsized profitability due to below-market rents and long-term leases [7][19] - The company aims for approximately 75 new store openings in the upcoming fiscal year, with a focus on accelerating growth and capitalizing on market opportunities created by competitors' closures [19][72] - The long-term growth algorithm targets 10% unit growth and 1% to 2% comparable store sales growth, with a gross margin goal of approximately 40% [18][72] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that consumers remain under pressure, which bodes well for the company's value-oriented offerings [5][26] - The company is optimistic about its ability to capture market share from competitors, particularly in light of the recent closures of Big Lots stores [37][72] - Management expressed confidence in the company's operational capacity to support accelerated growth, citing investments in infrastructure and distribution capabilities [88] Other Important Information - The company has initiated a new $300 million share buyback program, reflecting its commitment to returning capital to shareholders while pursuing growth opportunities [17][18] - The company expects to incur approximately $5 million in dark rent related to the acquired Big Lots locations, which will impact earnings in the short term but is seen as a strategic investment for long-term profitability [19][48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Assessment of the consumer state and outlook for 2025 - Management indicated that consumers are under pressure but that the company thrives in such environments, with strong performance in consumables driving traffic [25][26] Question: Gross margin expectations for 2025 - Management expects gross margin to remain around 40%, with stable supply chain costs and a focus on reinvesting in customer loyalty [28][29] Question: Impact of Big Lots closures on sales - Management noted that the impact was less than anticipated, with some stores performing better than expected due to fresh inventory [34][36] Question: Progress on private label credit card rollout - The credit card has been rolled out to most stores, with initial indications showing higher basket sizes for credit card customers [41][44] Question: Addressable market from Big Lots closures - Management estimates a $2.7 billion addressable market opportunity from Big Lots closures, with potential to capture a significant share [97] Question: Category performance and pre-opening expenses - Management highlighted strong performance in consumables, while discretionary categories faced challenges due to weather; pre-opening expenses are expected to follow the store opening cadence [114][118]

Kroger Company Overview - Kroger's interim CEO Ron Sargent has taken over following the resignation of Rodney McMullen, with no mention of McMullen during the earnings call, indicating a focus on future performance rather than past leadership [3][4] - The company reported identical sales growth of 2.4% and generated $1.4 billion in operating profit from alternative profit businesses, which account for over a quarter of its operating income [4][6] - Digital sales are growing at 10%, highlighting the competitive landscape in retail where convenience is becoming as important as price [5][6] Stock Performance and Shareholder Returns - Kroger's stock has increased by approximately 12% since the failed merger with Albertsons, with a total increase of 30% over the past year, despite flat to declining adjusted earnings per share [7][8] - The company is committed to a total shareholder return of 8-11%, with a current dividend yield of about 2% [8] Abercrombie & Fitch Company Overview - Abercrombie & Fitch reported a 16% increase in sales for the full year 2024, but the growth rate is slowing, with comparable sales for the Abercrombie brand only increasing by 5% in the fourth quarter [9][10] - The company expects consolidated sales growth of 3-5% for 2025, which is below market expectations, and operating margins are anticipated to be lower than previously expected [10][11] Inventory and Market Concerns - Abercrombie's inventory has increased by over $100 million, raising concerns about slowing demand and potential misalignment with consumer trends [12][13] - The company has a valuation of about eight times earnings, indicating market perception of limited growth potential [14] Turning Point Brands Overview - Turning Point Brands is experiencing growth in the hemp market due to the adoption of Farm Bill compliant products, with an estimated 7,000 retail outlets in Texas selling hemp-derived products [15][16] - The company is also focusing on modern oral nicotine products, with a projected revenue growth of 56% in 2025 compared to the previous year [19][20] Intuitive Surgical Overview - Intuitive Surgical's da Vinci Surgical System allows surgeons to perform minimally invasive surgeries with enhanced precision, primarily in urology and gynecology [23][24] - The company has invested nearly 14% of its revenue in R&D, indicating a commitment to innovation amid growing competition in the robotics field [31][32] - Intuitive Surgical has maintained a near-monopoly in the market, leveraging its established systems and easier regulatory pathways for new products [33]

Core Insights - Applied Materials, Inc. has announced a 15-percent increase in its quarterly cash dividend, marking eight consecutive years of higher dividends, resulting in a new quarterly dividend of $0.46 per share payable on June 12, 2025 [1] - The Board has also approved a new share repurchase authorization allowing the company to buy back an additional $10 billion of its shares, supplementing the previous authorization which had approximately $7.6 billion remaining at the end of the first quarter of fiscal 2025 [2] - Over the past 10 fiscal years, Applied Materials has distributed nearly 90 percent of its free cash flow to shareholders, indicating strong confidence in the company's business prospects and its ability to distribute excess cash to shareholders in the future [3] Financial Performance - The increase in dividends and the new share repurchase program reflect the company's robust financial health and commitment to returning value to shareholders [3] - The company has a history of significant cash flow distribution, which supports its ongoing dividend and share repurchase initiatives [3] Company Overview - Applied Materials, Inc. is a leader in materials engineering solutions used in the production of new chips and advanced displays globally, with expertise in modifying materials at atomic levels [5]

Core Viewpoint - TJX Companies is positioned as a strong long-term investment opportunity, with plans for increased capital returns and a solid growth outlook for 2025 and beyond [3][4][10]. Financial Performance - The company has announced a 13% increase in capital distribution, marking four consecutive years of annual increases since the COVID-related suspension [4]. - The annual dividend is set at $1.50, with a dividend yield of 1.22% and a three-year annualized dividend growth rate of 11.91% [5][6]. - The dividend payout ratio stands at 35.21%, indicating a healthy balance between earnings and distributions [5][6]. Market Position and Growth - TJX Companies is recognized as a leading off-price retailer, expected to sustain mid-single-digit top-line growth through the middle of the next decade [10]. - The company is projected to improve its operating leverage, leading to higher single-digit earnings growth, with earnings expected to exceed $9.50 by 2034 [10]. Institutional Interest - Institutional ownership exceeds 90%, with a notable shift from selling to buying in Q1 2025, indicating strong institutional confidence [9]. - Analysts have a consensus rating of Moderate Buy, with price targets being lifted following the F2026 guidance, suggesting a potential 10% upside from early March levels [8]. Stock Performance and Technical Indicators - The stock has shown resilience, with a bullish outlook supported by a Bullish Flag Pattern, indicating potential price increases of 10%, 25%, and 100% in the near, mid, and long term respectively [11].