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Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-16 00:36

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that while a new altcoin season is possible, it is unlikely to replicate the massive bull run of 2021 due to changes in macroeconomic conditions and market structure [2][24]. Market Environment - The unique market environment of 2021 was characterized by unprecedented monetary stimulus from central banks, leading to a surge in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies [3][5]. - The issuance of stablecoins skyrocketed from approximately $20 billion at the end of 2020 to over $150 billion by the end of 2021, marking an increase of more than 7 times [3]. Changes in Market Structure - The supply of tokens has rapidly expanded since 2021, driven by a boom in venture capital and the popularity of airdrops and memecoins, resulting in a significant increase in project valuations [7][9]. - There is a substantial unlocking pressure on tokens, with over $200 billion in market value facing unlocks between 2024 and 2025, contributing to the current market's "high FDV, low circulation" issue [9][10]. - Attention and liquidity have become fragmented, making it difficult for funds to coalesce around specific narratives as seen in 2021 [11][12]. Future Altcoin Season Scenarios - An altcoin season is anticipated, but it will differ from the 2021 experience, focusing on projects with strong fundamentals and product-market fit [14][24]. - Potential catalysts for market movement include governance actions that could unlock fees and enhance liquidity [15][24]. - The market may see a "barbell" structure where liquidity flows to either blue-chip DeFi projects or high-risk assets like memecoins, leaving mid-tier projects in a precarious position [25]. Investment Opportunities - Projects generating substantial cash flow and demonstrating market validation, such as Uniswap and Aave, are expected to maintain resilience even in downturns [14][24]. - The traditional financial sector's entry into the crypto space is likely to favor DeFi's expansion, shifting valuation logic from TVL to cash flow distribution [24]. Conclusion - The current market is maturing and becoming more differentiated, requiring investors to adapt to these changes [24].