🇺🇸 JUST IN: President Trump says he will soon announce the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, “someone who believes in lower interest rates by a lot.” https://t.co/8jQrEuCuwG ...

🚨 JUST IN: Polymarket traders overwhelmingly expect the Fed to hold rates steady in January, pricing in a 77 percent chance of no change. https://t.co/nuPL3WEC8b ...

Sales of Japan’s government bonds for individual investors have surged past ¥5 trillion ($32 billion) this year, the most since 2007, as rising interest rates draw household cash out of bank deposits after the Bank of Japan began tightening policy https://t.co/E7kRlj7Emr ...

今天分享的是：诺德·安博特公司：2026年全球投资展望报告：乘势而上（英文版） 报告共计：31页 诺德·安博特2026年全球投资展望报告核心总结 2026年初，全球金融环境普遍宽松，各国央行降息举措带动股市走强、信用利差收窄，信贷供给充足。各国央行在短期通胀目 标上展现出政策灵活性，即便部分国家通胀略高于目标，仍通过降息支持经济活动与就业，市场对中期通胀预期保持稳定。 股市方面，当前牛市处于历史平均水平，未进入泡沫区间。超大规模科技公司的AI相关资本支出远超预期，带动半导体、数据 中心相关产业盈利增长，且AI投资回报周期较传统项目更短。消费领域呈现K型分化格局，但稳定的就业市场与政策支持有望 支撑2026年消费支出。全球并购与IPO活动回暖，国际市场盈利增长加速，中小盘股表现回升，市场广度持续改善。 诺德·安博特公司《2026年全球投资展望报告》围绕"乘势而上"的主题，剖析了全球金融市场的核心趋势与关键动态。 私人信贷市场在2025年下半年回暖，美联储降息与关税政策调整推动并购活动复苏。尽管出现个别违约事件，但市场基本面稳 健，私募股权公司充裕的"干粉"资金与即将到来的债务到期潮，将为私人信贷市场带来持续需求 ...

Market Overview - US stock futures rose as investors anticipated a recovery from recent tech sell-offs, with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and Nasdaq 100 futures gaining approximately 0.8% [1] - Dow Jones Industrial Average futures increased by 0.1% [1] Tech Sector Developments - Oracle's stock fell after losing key support for a $10 billion data center project, impacting other major tech stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom [2] - Micron Technology's earnings report indicated strong AI demand, forecasting next quarter's adjusted profit to be nearly double analysts' expectations, leading to a surge in its stock during premarket trading [2][11] Inflation and Economic Indicators - Markets are awaiting the consumer price index report for November, which may be less reliable due to the US government shutdown affecting data collection [3] - The Federal Reserve is focusing more on labor market conditions than inflation pressures, with indications from Fed governor Chris Waller supporting potential rate cuts [4] Corporate News - Trump Media & Technology Group announced a merger with TAE Technologies in a $6 billion all-stock deal, creating the world's first publicly traded fusion company [5] - Maplebear's stock fell 6% following DoorDash's partnership with OpenAI for a grocery-shopping app, while Coinbase's stock rose 2% as it plans to introduce stock trading and prediction markets [6][7] - Birkenstock's stock dropped 7% despite better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, as its outlook for fiscal 2026 did not meet analysts' expectations [8] - Lululemon shares rose after reports of activist investor Elliott building a stake of over $1 billion in the company [9] Broader Market Concerns - US stocks face numerous potential risks in 2026, including AI expectations, valuation issues, inflation and interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and macroeconomic slowdowns [10]

US stock futures rose on Thursday, eyeing a recovery from Wall Street's tech-fueled sell-off, as investors digested the easing inflation pressures from the latest reading on consumer prices that could help set expectations for the path of interest rates. S&P 500 futures (ES=F) moved up roughly 0.6%, while those on the Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) gained 1%, looking to rebound after Oracle (ORCL)-propelled AI trade worries spurred another bruising session for tech. Meanwhile, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM= ...

🚨 REMINDER: Japan’s central bank may raise interest rates on Friday to 0.75 percent, the highest level since 1995. ...

New Zealand’s economy rebounded more than economists forecast in the third quarter, with falling interest rates helping drive output after a second-quarter contraction https://t.co/7WVbjnArzB ...

Economic Indicators - Weekly initial unemployment claims in the US are expected to decrease by 11,000 to 225,000 [1] - November CPI is projected to rise by 3.1% year-over-year, while core CPI is expected to increase by 3.0% year-over-year [1] - Existing home sales for November are anticipated to rise by 1.2% month-over-month to 4.15 million [1] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for December is expected to be revised upward by 0.2 to 53.5 [1] Mortgage Applications - US MBA weekly mortgage applications fell by 3.8% for the week ending December 12, with the purchase mortgage sub-index down by 2.8% and refinancing down by 3.6% [2] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased by 5 basis points to 6.38% from 6.33% [2] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index closed down by 1.16%, the Dow Jones down by 0.47%, and the Nasdaq 100 down by 1.93% [6] - AI-infrastructure stocks and chip makers experienced significant sell-offs, with GE Vernova down over 10% and Constellation Energy down over 6% [13] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks also fell, with Bitcoin dropping over 2% [14] Energy Sector - Energy producers saw gains as WTI crude oil rose by more than 1%, with Devon Energy up over 5% and ConocoPhillips up over 4% [16] - Mining stocks increased due to heightened tensions in Venezuela, boosting demand for precious metals [4] International Markets - The Euro Stoxx 50 fell to a 2-week low, down by 0.63%, while China's Shanghai Composite rose by 1.19% [7] - Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 recovered, closing up by 0.26% [7] Bond Market - March 10-year T-notes fell by 0.5 of a tick, with the yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 4.151% [8] - T-notes found support from solid demand in a $13 billion auction of 20-year T-bonds, which had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.67 [9] - The yield curve has steepened since the last FOMC meeting, indicating bearish sentiment for T-note prices [10] Earnings Reports - Companies reporting earnings include Accenture PLC, Birkenstock Holding Plc, CarMax Inc, Cintas Corp, Darden Restaurants Inc, FactSet Research Systems Inc, FedEx Corp, HEICO Corp, and NIKE Inc [21]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's future actions regarding interest rates and the potential appointment of a new chair are critical considerations for investors in 2026 [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - There is an expectation of a firming in 2026 due to factors such as regulatory relief, tax benefits, and the continuation of the AI boom [2] - The current job market weakness is attributed to structural issues and the recent shutdown, which is now over, leading to concerns about being at a neutral interest rate while inflation remains above target [4][8] - The Fed's current neutral rate is estimated to be in the range of 3.5% to 3.75%, with inflation running above the target of 2.75% [8] Group 2: Labor Market and Inflation - The unemployment rate of 4.6% may be skewed due to a recent increase in labor supply following the shutdown, which might not be sustainable [6][7] - There is a belief that the labor market's current weakness is more structural than cyclical, with tariffs disproportionately affecting small businesses [5][11] - The anticipation of AI's impact on productivity is seen as a structural issue that could influence future economic conditions [6][12] Group 3: Fed's Internal Dynamics - The divide within the Fed has become more pronounced as they approach neutral rates, with differing opinions on whether to cut rates further or maintain the current stance [10] - The tension within the Fed is attributed to the need for evidence of improving inflation before making further decisions [9][10]