I think the economy is weakening, you know, whether that is on the way to recession or just weakening, I don't know, and that just confirms what we already thought, kind of. And I know that's a big revision. And speaking of kind of what we were going back to with the state of the economy, the difficulty predicting one of the questions people have is what's going on with the consumer right now.They're still spending money. It's a little bit different depending on what income set they're coming from. They sti ...

Bitcoin vs inflation. https://t.co/TcxIJOt0NZ ...

🇺🇸 LATEST: Donald Trump slammed Fed Chair Jerome Powell as a “total disaster,” urging immediate rate cuts and claiming inflation doesn’t exist. https://t.co/Qz7xlr6Mxp ...

🇺🇸LATEST: The White House reiterates Trump's meage that there is "No inflation" and that Jerome Powell "must lower" interest rates. https://t.co/SGvL2JZqLv ...

US wholesale inflation unexpectedly fell last month after prices rose in Julyhttps://t.co/3HR2wtNFjx ...

Inflation Outlook - Stiffel expects a relatively benign Producer Price Index (PPI) report, with a slight increase of a couple of tenths of a percentage point, but notes that price pressures remain elevated above the 2% target [3] - A significant rise in both PPI and Consumer Price Index (CPI) could potentially cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to pause before making a move in September [12] - The market is anticipating a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed [13] Monetary Policy - The Fed is shifting its focus back to full employment due to cooling labor market data [4] - Elevated inflation levels will likely put a floor on any further potential rate adjustments beyond a near-term reduction [4] - The market is looking for the Fed to move towards or further into neutral [7] - An outsized 50 basis point move by the Fed is unlikely, but a dissent in favor of a larger cut may be seen [19] - More than two rate cuts this year may be overly aggressive, with potential cuts in September and possibly December [20] - Upside risk remains, as accelerating inflationary pressures could eliminate the Fed's ability to push through even a second rate cut [21] Economic Conditions - The economy is losing momentum and slowing down in some aspects, but not necessarily heading for an outright downturn [8] - The biggest risk is a stagflationary scenario, with the Fed tolerating above-target inflation, potentially leading to a stagnant economy with elevated price pressures [10] - The labor market data is not all pointing in the same direction, with a low unemployment rate near 4% but varying data points [15][16] - Consumption has been holding up relatively steady, with retail sales numbers around 4% [17]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold could reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by factors such as central bank demand and inflation concerns [1][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The forecast is based on the potential for increased political pressure on the Federal Reserve, which could lead to aggressive cuts in short-term rates, fueling inflationary expectations [3]. - Inflation fears typically drive investment flows into gold, making it a key asset during uncertain economic times [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Behavior - Central banks are increasingly purchasing gold instead of U.S. Treasuries, indicating a shift in reserve management [7]. - Global central bank reserves of gold have reached 27%, the highest level in 30 years, while U.S. Treasury reserves are at 23%, the lowest since the Global Financial Crisis [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current environment, characterized by central bank demand and inflation concerns, sets the stage for significant upward pressure on gold prices [5]. - Gold is being viewed as a hard-asset alternative to U.S. debt, which is a departure from the traditional correlation between gold rallies and U.S. dollar weakness [4].

Welcome back. The NBC News Decision Desk is out with a new poll this morning. And here to take us inside the numbers is NBC News chief data analyst, the great Steve Cornaki.Thanks for being here, Steve. What do you have. Hey, thanks Christie.Good morning. So, take a look. Our decision desk poll.And again, we're looking at all adults here. This is voters and potential voters casting a wide net. We ask about President Trump's job performance, a 43% approval rating.That's what we find in this poll. And of cour ...

Economy & Monetary Policy - Discusses the current state of the economy [1] - Explores whether the Fed and government have effectively eliminated bear markets [1] - Considers whether the Fed should cut interest rates by 50 basis points (0.5%) [1] Cryptocurrency - Analyzes the current situation and potential breakout of Bitcoin [1] Technology & Innovation - Covers Tesla, humanoid robots, and Elon Musk's ventures [1] - Touches on artificial intelligence [1] Energy & Housing - Raises concerns about electricity prices [1] - Addresses the national housing crisis and potential solutions [1]

Joining me now is Kevin Hasset, director of the National Economic Council. Thank you so much for joining us this afternoon. We really appreciate it. >> Well, it's great to have you. I do want to start off uh with your reaction to the August jobs report. As you know, just 22,000 jobs were created last month and revisions showed the US actually lost jobs in June. That's the first month of job losses since the pandemic. Is this a warning sign about the state of the labor market? Well, right now when we're look ...