The San Francisco Fed chief said the central bank has more work to do to fully cool inflation to its 2% target https://t.co/OkhKL5ZWYr ...

Market Trends & Uncertainty - Potential for significantly raising tariffs on India is causing widespread concern and driving supply chain issues [1] - Businesses are facing uncertainty due to tariffs, impacting their ability to stabilize costs and pricing [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs may lead to a cost increase, potentially resulting in a 0.5% to 0.7% increase in inflation over the next one to two years [3] - Stockpiling has delayed the impact of tariffs, but businesses are now working through reserves [5] - Long-term uncertainty regarding final tariff amounts could extend cost increases, inflationary pressures, and supply chain problems into the future [15] Geopolitical & Economic Impact - India is considered a crucial ally, and potential tariff increases are particularly concerning [6] - China is investing in technology and infrastructure due to anticipated population decline [7] - A weak US dollar is a concern not only for the US but also for the rest of the world, with some funds hedging away from the dollar [11] - Other countries want the US to be strong, recognizing that a weak America poses a global problem [10] Policy & Legal Considerations - The legality of the emergency acts used for tariffs is being challenged and may go to the Supreme Court, creating further uncertainty [17] - Deals with the EU, France, and Germany are considered solid [9] - The EU is delaying its response to US tariffs, hoping for a better outcome [13] - There are disagreements regarding the specifics of deals, such as the allocation of 600 to 650 billion dollars [14]

guy, you know, look, the market showed a little sensitivity to this, right. You got a little bit of a whoosh down after the numbers. Banks actually took it on the chin.Mostly came back though. So, h how do you put it in context. The stagflation part I think is really important.I think it was about 13 or so months ago, maybe 14, almost to the day when Jerome Pal when asked about stagflation, he said, trying to be clever, I see neither the stag nor the inflation. And quite frankly, we have both now. And the f ...

Brazil’s central bank said it will keep a cautious stance on monetary policy as it works to tame above-target inflation, warning of increased uncertainty caused by US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs https://t.co/FveH2kGZHx ...

From @WSJopinion: Trump does himself and his party no favors by waving away economic reality. Democrats spent the Biden presidency playing down inflation, and look where it got them, writes Allysia Finley. https://t.co/5rXiKM7bRe ...

Federal Reserve Governance - President Trump is expected to appoint a new Federal Reserve governor following Adriana Cougler's resignation, providing an opportunity to influence the Fed's direction [1][2][3] - The appointment allows the president to potentially designate someone as chair or vice chair, further shaping the Fed's composition [3] Fed Independence and Political Pressure - Maintaining the Fed's independence is crucial for effective central banking, leading to lower, more stable inflation and avoiding variable output or employment costs [5][6] - Political pressure on the Fed complicates monetary policy by requiring the Fed to reinforce its focus on fundamentals to the public, legislators, and financial markets [7] - Undermining the Fed's credibility through political interference is detrimental and could lead to higher long-term interest rates, contradicting desired economic outcomes [8][9] Monetary Policy and Economic Analysis - The Fed's monetary policy decisions are based on evaluating economic and financial information, using models and scenario analyses to achieve maximum employment and price stability [7] - The Fed previously cut rates due to weak labor market reports and expectations of declining inflation, but revised data and tariff announcements altered the risk balance [14][15][16] - Future policy decisions will depend on incoming labor market and inflation data, with potential for a 25 basis point cut if service-side prices remain stable or decline [20][21][22]

Interest Rate Policy - The market is pricing in potentially as many as three rate cuts this year, but DoubleLine maintains a base case of two rate cuts in 2024 [12] - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by approximately 25 basis points following the jobs report, indicating market anticipation of rate cuts [7][14] - The spread between the Fed funds rate and the 2-year Treasury widened to 70 basis points, a level reminiscent of conditions preceding a rate cut 12 months prior [7][8] Economic Data Reliability - Surveys for the jobs report are experiencing a declining response rate, with only 60% being returned [10] - Approximately 35% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) input prices are now estimated or "imputed," raising concerns about data reliability [11] - Job reports have a tendency to be revised lower, with 45 out of 48 reports under the current administration being revised downwards after the initial release [13] Labor Market Analysis - The jobs report showed a revision of over 250,000 jobs [7] - The Fed is perceived to be at its employment target but not at its inflation target [6]

BULLISH: 🔥 @NatBrunell on Fox Business claims "the thing you need is the one thing immune to currency debasement, immune to inflation, and that is Bitcoin." https://t.co/RAOvmcqaSk ...

Joining us right now on the latest jobs report, the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the impending departure of Fed Governor Adriana Cougler, and what this all could mean for the US central bank is former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. She's now an adjunct professor of finance at UPEN's Wharton School and a CNBC contributor. And Loretta, thanks for being here.A small order of business, just a few things happening. What did you think about the numbers on Friday, first of all. We ...

Anxious shoppers, concerned about inflation and their personal finances, are cutting their spending to focus on essentials https://t.co/nmxKeEq6Ba ...