Market Trends & Analysis - Yields are rangebound, indicating a neutral stance from an intermediate and long-term perspective [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield has support around 42% and resistance around 44% [3] - A breakout from the yield range would suggest higher yields, while a breakdown could lead to secondary support around 40% [4] - Small caps, represented by the Russell 2000, show strong upside momentum in both the intermediate and short term [6] - The Russell 2000 exhibits a cup and handle formation, suggesting a potential lift to new highs [6] - Consolidation is expected for small caps, aligning with seasonal influences and overbought conditions [7] - Large cap indices are losing upside momentum, potentially impacting the Russell 2000 [8] - The VIX is above its 50-day moving average, indicating expanding volatility inversely correlated to the S&P 500 [9] Crude Oil Analysis - Crude oil prices are still in a secular downtrend, requiring a substantial upside move to reverse [9] - There are indications on the monthly chart of WTI suggesting a major low in March/April, based on long-term oversold readings [10] Energy Sector - The energy sector shows signs of life, with some MLPs lifting out of prolonged consolidation phases [11] - Phillips 66 (PSX) shows a potential inverse head and shoulders formation, indicating constructive technical action despite long-term downside momentum [11]

Crude Oil Market Dynamics - Indian refiners are increasing purchases of US crude oil [1] - This increase is a response to Washington's crackdown on India for buying Russian oil [1]

Supply Chain Disruption - Russian crude oil shipments to Hungary may resume after almost a week of halt [1] - The halt was due to Ukraine's attack on Druzhba pipeline network [1]

Trade & Tariffs Impact - US tariffs on Indian goods appear to be impacting Russian crude oil flows to India [1] - Russian crude oil flows to India have decreased by almost 20% since June [1]

Industry Activity - Vitol is preparing to load the first cargo of Syrian crude oil since the lifting of western sanctions [1] Energy Sector Recovery - Syria's energy industry is attempting to recover following the lifting of sanctions [1]

Refiners in India, among the largest buyers of Russian crude, are planning to trim their purchases in the coming weeks, a modest concession to Washington’s hawks less than a day ahead of a hike in US tariffs https://t.co/dRnyIvxUvY ...

India’s state-run refiners have returned to buying Russian oil after a brief pause, despite the South Asian nation facing higher tariffs for the trade and a volley of criticism from Trump officials https://t.co/dxzpGTUHpF ...

Geopolitical & Economic Policy - US Treasury Secretary claimed some of the "richest families in India" benefited from Russian crude oil purchases [1] - US plans to boost tariffs on India [1]

India’s state-owned oil refiners are pulling back from purchases of Russian crude for now, according to people with direct knowledge of the companies’ procurement plans https://t.co/h9RPA4eW7Z ...

Market Trends - Russian crude oil is being offered to Indian buyers at lower prices due to EU sanctions and potential US penalties [1] Supply and Demand - Demand outlook is clouded by EU sanctions and US threats of penalties [1]