Initial jobless claims totaled 232,000 in the week ended Oct. 18, according to US Labor Department https://t.co/RiB2SuHsZb ...

These odds are gonna be VOLATILE this week.We finally get data on CPI, jobless, and more after a full month without it.If the data is bad, 0.25bps cut will runIf the data is good, no change will runI lean the 0.25bps cut to run, especially given where cuts were priced just 45 days agoThe lack of data has seriously skewed these markets n the potential for another rate cut this year. ...

Labor Market Trends - Initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to 229,000, remaining within the recent range [1] - Continuing claims are edging higher, potentially indicating future weakening in the labor market [2] - Continuing claims by federal workers surged, topping 23,000, the highest since 2019, possibly due to the shutdown and laid-off workers applying for benefits [3] - Alternative jobs reports suggest a cooling labor market, but without runaway signals in either direction [3] Employment Data - ADP preliminary data indicated an average of 14,000 weekly job gains [4] - The national report showed an increase from -29,000 to 42,000 [4] - The Chicago Fed's estimate of the unemployment rate remained relatively unchanged around 43% [4] - Challenger job cuts report indicated a gain of 153,000 [4] Indicators of Weakness - The Indeed jobs posting, while above the standard of 100, has been continuously decreasing [5] - ISM manufacturing and service employment indices both ticked up but remain below 50, subjectively categorized as weakness [5] Data Analysis & Future Outlook - The Fed is likely analyzing this data, potentially possessing more comprehensive information [6] - Good alternative data on prices is currently lacking, with plans to release some next week [6]

We are getting uh the jobless claims data from the US government despite uh the government shutdown and senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us with the data and a look at what all the alternative job numbers are telling us and a very firm conclusion about the the state of the labor market we're going to get from Steve I'm I'm told >> thanks for setting me up there Joe uh that's not going to happen I'll do the best I can uh first let me give you the jobless claims data it's gathered gathered individ ...

Core Insights - Haver Analytics has developed a method to aggregate state jobless claims reports, providing a proxy that closely aligns with the government's weekly jobless claim report, showing a figure of 217,000 for the week of October 11th compared to 228,000 previously reported [1][2] - Continuing claims have increased to 1,942,000 from 1,920,000, indicating a slight rise in ongoing unemployment claims [2] - The data from Haver Analytics, while not perfect, generally aligns with government figures over time, suggesting a stable labor market with no significant changes since the government ceased publishing certain reports [4] Job Market Analysis - The job market appears to be characterized by low hiring and firing rates, with current claims hovering around the 200,000 to 220,000 range, indicating a relatively stable employment situation [4] - There is a discrepancy between jobless claims data and Federal Reserve commentary, particularly from Chairman Powell, who has expressed concerns about labor market conditions [8][17] Financial Market Dynamics - The relationship between equities and treasury yields is highlighted, with a noted "flight to good collateral," indicating a preference for high-quality assets amid market uncertainties [9][12] - Recent trends show a rise in the secured overnight funding rate (SOFR), suggesting tightness in financial markets and a demand for quality collateral [11][12] - The fiscal year ending in September saw a significant debt servicing cost of $1.22 trillion, which may exert upward pressure on long-term interest rates despite other factors that could push rates lower [16]

Labor Market Analysis - Haver Analytics estimates weekly jobless claims at 217,000 for the week of October 11th, compared to the government's 228,000 [1] - Continuing claims are estimated to be up at 1.942 million versus 1.92 million [2] - The economy is characterized as a relatively low fire, low hire environment, with no significant changes since the government stopped publishing data [4] - Goldman Sachs reports similar jobless claim numbers [5] Financial Market Conditions - Secured Overnight Funding Rate (SOFR) is at one-month highs, indicating a clamor for high-quality collateral and tightness in the financial market [11][12] - The rise in SOFR is reversing the effect of the Fed's rate cut on September 17th [13] - The fiscal year ended with 1.22 trillion to service the debt [16] Monetary Policy and Market Outlook - There's a divergence between jobless claims data and the Fed's concerns about the labor market [8] - The relationship between stocks and treasury yields is influenced by a "flight to good collateral" [9] - The current situation is not comparable to the great credit crisis [10] - Chairman Powell mentioned the possibility of ending quantitative tightening in the coming months due to some tightening in financial markets [17]

Economic Growth - Q2 GDP revised higher to 38%, representing the fastest economic growth in 2 years [1] - Economy is holding up better than expected [1] Labor Market - Initial & continuous jobless claims lower than expected [1] Housing Market - Home sales higher than expected [1] Inflation - Core PCE marginally higher [1] Market Sentiment - Risk is down [1] Interest Rates - Rates are up [1]

Economic Growth & Indicators - US economy grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years, driven by consumer spending [1] - GDP revised up to 38%, fueled by consumer and business spending [6] - Durable goods orders increased by 29%, primarily due to airplanes, while computer and computer chip orders decreased [4][5] - Jobless claims fell to 218000 [4] Federal Reserve Policy - Fed Governor Stephen Myron suggests the neutral rate is drifting down, requiring policy adjustment to avoid downside risks [2] - Some Fed members, like Austan Goolsbee, are hesitant to frontload rate cuts given the current economic conditions [6] - Jeff Schmitt views the current policy stance as only slightly restrictive and doesn't advocate for rate cuts, citing high inflation and a largely balanced labor market [7] Trade & Tariffs - Trade good balance shows the effect of tariffs, with a deficit of 855 billion due to a significant decrease in imports (over 4%) in July [5]

Economic Data Overview - Recent economic data has shown favorable trends, with GDP revised to 3.8% for the second quarter and personal consumption expenditures increasing from 1.6% to 2.5% [2] - Durable goods orders exceeded expectations, rising by 2.9% instead of the anticipated decline of 0.5%, while core capital goods also increased by 6% [2] Job Market Insights - Jobless claims have improved, dropping to 218,000, which is a positive trend compared to previous weeks where claims were above 260,000 [3] Government Spending and Economic Growth - Despite a decrease in government spending, real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased by 3.2%, and real gross output rose by 1.2% [4] - The economy is showing resilience and growth even as government involvement diminishes [4] Federal Reserve Commentary - There is a wide range of opinions among Federal Reserve speakers regarding the economy and interest rates, with some advocating for lower Fed funds rates [7][8] - Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell have contributed to market volatility, suggesting that the market may be reacting to perceived high valuations [9] Market Reactions - The market's decline, despite strong economic data, may be attributed to profit-taking and reactions to Fed comments [9]

Labor Market Overview - Initial jobless claims show a significant decrease to 218,000, a drop from a revised 232,000 last month, indicating no immediate firing concerns [1] - Continuing claims are slightly down to 1,926,000 from a revised 1,928,000, suggesting companies are holding steady [1] - The labor market is characterized by low hiring and low firing rates, maintaining a state of equilibrium [3] Wage and Inflation Dynamics - Wage disparities are emerging, with low-wage earners losing ground to high-income workers [5] - Low-income earners, who are most vulnerable to inflation, are experiencing wage stagnation [5] - Wage trends are crucial as they serve as a link between the job market and inflation [4] - Current Fed projections indicate inflation will remain above target for four years and take two years to reach the target [4]