Core Points - The article discusses the current state of jobless claims in the U.S., indicating a trend in unemployment rates and its implications for the economy [1][2]. Group 1: Jobless Claims - Jobless claims in the U.S. have shown a significant trend, reflecting the overall health of the labor market [1][2]. - The latest data indicates fluctuations in jobless claims, which can impact economic forecasts and monetary policy decisions [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Changes in jobless claims are closely monitored as they can influence investor sentiment and market stability [1][2]. - The article suggests that persistent high jobless claims may lead to concerns regarding economic recovery and growth prospects [1][2].

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 United States Initial Jobless Claims $USD:- Actual: 231K- Expected: 241K- Previous: 264KBEARISH FOR CRYPTO. https://t.co/WEBGttmz6G ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve (Fed) successfully managed to achieve consensus on a rate cut, which is generally positive for bonds, stocks, and the economy [2][3] - There is uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, with some members of the Fed indicating no further cuts this year, which may create volatility in the markets [4][5] - The upcoming changes in the Fed's personnel and structure may complicate the outlook for monetary policy in the next year [5] Group 2 - The Bank of England's focus is shifting towards managing bond supply and inflation concerns, which are affecting long-term yields in global bond markets [7] - Jobless claims data has been unreliable, raising questions about the true state of the labor market and its implications for the Fed's decisions [9][10] - The market's attention may pivot back to inflation unless there are significantly negative job data, indicating a cautious approach to economic outlook [10]

Market Overview - Major U.S. index futures indicate a slightly lower open on Friday, with potential profit-taking following a strong rally that led to record closing highs [1][4] - The Dow surged 617.08 points (1.4%) to 46,108.00, S&P 500 jumped 55.43 points (0.9%) to 6,587.47, and Nasdaq advanced 157.01 points (0.7%) to 22,043.07 [5] Economic Indicators - Recent data shows U.S. consumer prices rose by 0.4% in August, slightly above expectations of 0.3%, with annual growth accelerating to 2.9% from 2.7% [6][9] - Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% in August, maintaining an annual growth rate of 3.1% [7] - Initial jobless claims unexpectedly increased to 263,000, up 27,000 from the previous week, marking the highest level since October 2021 [8] Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to lower interest rates by at least 25 basis points, with a 92.5% chance of this occurring according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool [2] - Traders are focused on the Fed's upcoming monetary policy announcement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for indications of future rate cuts [3] Sector Performance - Computer hardware stocks performed strongly, with the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index rising 2.7% to a record high [10] - Networking stocks also saw a 2.7% increase, reaching a new record closing high, while biotechnology stocks rose by 2.6% [10] - Housing, telecom, and airline stocks experienced considerable strength, contributing to the overall market gains [11] Commodity and Currency Markets - Crude oil futures surged by $1.41 to $63.78 per barrel, while gold futures increased by $5.30 to $3,678.90 per ounce [12] - The U.S. dollar traded at 147.96 yen, up from 147.21 yen, and valued at $1.1705 against the euro, compared to $1.1734 previously [12]

Market Performance & Fed Policy Expectations - The market has already priced in a significant amount of exuberance, with the S&P 500 up almost 10% and the NASDAQ up almost 12% following a V-shaped recovery [1] - Markets have priced in more Fed easing than is currently reflected in Fed fund futures, which could be a cause for concern [4] - The market is questioning whether it is pricing in too much Fed easing, considering inflation numbers [5] Inflation & Economic Concerns - CPI data indicates persistent goods inflation and sticky services inflation, suggesting a higher inflation paradigm than the Fed desires [3] - A weakening jobs market coupled with rising inflation creates a challenging environment for consumers already facing increased prices due to tariffs and trade war uncertainty [6] - Jobless claims have reached a four-year high, the worst since October 2021 [8] - The current Fed policy of maintaining rates may be contributing to higher prices, particularly in shelter costs, which constitute a third of the CPI [9][10] Impact of Rate Cuts & Capex - A rate-cutting cycle could weaken the dollar and provide a tailwind for the stock market [7] - Significant capital expenditure (capex) has matched the consumer's contribution to two-thirds of GDP, acting as a substantial tailwind [7] - A pullback in capex and a weakening consumer could lead to a recession [8]

The latest inflation report out this morning is giving a snapshot of the state of the economy in addition to a surprising piece of jobs data. According to the consumer price index for August, the price of goods went up 0.4% month over month, 2.9% year-over-year. Also, the weekly jobless claims jumped to their highest level in four years.Here to break it all down, NBC News senior business correspondent Christine Romans. She joins us again. We also have Investopedia editor and chief Caleb Silver.Good morning ...

Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-over-month, exceeding the expected 0.3% for the core CPI [1] - Year-over-year CPI rose to 2.9% from 2.7%, while the core rate remained at 3.1% [1] - Initial jobless claims saw a significant increase to 263,000 from an unrevised number of 237,000 [1] Employment Data - Continuing claims decreased slightly to 1,939,000 from 1,940,000, indicating a lower rate of unemployment insurance filings [2] Sector Performance - The energy index rose by 0.7%, driven by rising prices from air power plants [2] - Food prices increased by 0.5%, with food at home rising by 0.6% [2][3] - Various sectors including airline fares, used cars, trucks, apparel, and new vehicles experienced price increases [3] Core Services - The core services rate increased by 0.3%, a slight decline from the previous month's 0.4% [3][4] - The current inflation figures may not significantly influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate adjustments [4]

We've got a hotter than expected reading as CPI on a month over month basis rises 4/10 of a percent. 3/10 has expected for the core. The year over year rate goes to 2.9% from 2.7% and the core rate goes to 3.1%, stays at 3.1%, we should say.The other number out just now, initial jobless claims, big jump there, 263,000 last week. Don't have the previous revised number, but the UNREVISED number was 237. So a significant movement there in terms of continuing claims, 1,939,000.That's a drop from 1,940,000. But ...

Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month increased by 0.4%, which is a tenth better than expected, while the year-over-year CPI rose to 2.9%, up 210 basis points from last month but in line with expectations [1][2] - Core CPI month-over-month was up 0.3%, remaining unchanged year-over-year at 3.1%, consistent with expectations [2][3] - Key contributors to the monthly increase included airline fares (up 5.9%), used cars and trucks (up 1%), and apparel (up 0.5%), while medical care, recreation, and communications saw declines [3][4] Jobless Claims - First-time jobless claims rose to 263,000, marking the highest level in four years and an increase of 27,000 from the previous month, indicating a concerning trend in the labor market [5][6] - The rise in jobless claims suggests a potential increase in layoffs, which could influence Federal Reserve policy regarding interest rates [6][7] Market Reactions - The combination of inflation data and rising jobless claims has kept the 10-year yield in a tight range, hovering just above 4% [8][9] - The market appears optimistic, with stocks performing well, as the CPI data did not present any major shocks, and the weak labor market data may lead to future rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11]

Steve Leeman and Rick Santelli are here for what we should get on time and that is the CPI. Rick, you got it. Or Steve up 0.4% uh versus an estimate of 0.3% uh real earnings minus 0.1%.Obviously, the inflation numbers taking that off. Uh let's see what we got here. Uh year-over-year uh headline 2.9% right in line. X food and energy 3.1% right in line.No adjustment to the prior number. Uh but the one thing is the headline the uh core at 03 is exactly in line with estimates. Uh let's see what else we have her ...