Market Data & Economic Indicators - The monthly jobs report is a key indicator for Wall Street trading and economic assessment [3] - Jobs data reflects economic health: employment drives spending, which boosts company hiring and profits [4] - The jobs report is a crucial signal for the Federal Reserve and Wall Street to gauge the economy's direction [5] - The jobs report data, despite being delayed and revised, is the best available monthly economic indicator [5] Potential Policy Changes & Concerns - A proposal to suspend the jobs report until data accuracy is ensured has been suggested [2] - Suspending the jobs report would deprive Wall Street of crucial data for trading decisions [3] - The feasibility of suspending the jobs report by the BLS commissioner is questionable [5]

Data Reliability Concerns - Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 数据质量和可靠性下降，修订增加 [2] - 本届政府正在解决数据质量问题 [3] Leadership Changes and Future Plans - 总统已任命新领导接管劳工统计局 (BLS) [3] - 目标是为美国人民提供诚实可靠的数据，以供重要的经济决策 [4] - 劳工统计局 (BLS) 计划继续发布月度就业报告 [1] - 需要审查美国获取重要数据的方式和方法 [3]

Data Collection and Revision - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases monthly jobs reports, which include initial job numbers and revisions to the previous three months [1] - The Employment Situation report consists of two surveys: the household survey (calculating the unemployment rate) and the establishment survey (calculating nonfarm payroll employment) [3][4] - The establishment survey is sent to 650,000 workplaces, but only about 60% respond by the initial report release; this increases to over 90% after three months, leading to revisions [4][5] - BLS revises the numbers twice a year with unemployment insurance data and even 10 years later with census data [7] Factors Influencing Revisions - Large revisions are often attributed to economic shifts, such as coming out of or moving into a slow period [8] - Discrepancies between the current year and the previous year's employment patterns can also lead to significant revisions [9] - A specific example is the suspicion that schools are not hiring as much as they did last year due to the depletion of COVID-era funding [10] Data Integrity and Trust - Experts believe that political influence is not a factor in the revisions [10] - Eroding trust in the statistical system is detrimental to companies' decision-making processes and the country's infrastructure [12][13] - Improving the initial report completion rate is seen as the best way to reduce drastic revisions [11]

Economic Data Integrity - The report suggests skepticism regarding the accuracy of reported job numbers, similar to pre-election concerns [1] - An expert, William Beachch, refutes the possibility of manipulating jobs data by a commissioner [1] - The report highlights a claim that President Trump alleged a conspiracy involving the commissioner shaping the data, which is deemed impossible by the expert [1]

Data Integrity & Political Influence - The report highlights concerns about potential political influence on the integrity of economic statistics, specifically regarding the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [1][3][10] - The U S is considered the gold standard for economic statistics, but faces challenges due to budget constraints affecting data accuracy [10][11] - The president's criticism of the BLS commissioner and the jobs numbers raises concerns about politicization of data [1][3] Statistical Methodology & Accuracy - The report emphasizes the inherent margin of error in jobs reports, citing an example of approximately 100,000 jobs per month [5] - Job number variations can occur due to incomplete company responses and statistical adjustments for labor force changes [7] - The BLS uses tax records annually to cross-check and adjust payroll data, addressing potential overcounting [15][16] - Statistical variations have been present since 1923 when these surveys began [8] Data Usage & Trust - Investors, traders, and economists rely on the accuracy and reliability of U S economic data [9] - Politicization of data could erode trust in U S statistics, similar to concerns raised about data from other countries [9][10] - Revisions to initial job numbers are common and should be expected [12][13]

the three-month moving average, healthc care has actually created on average 68,000 jobs. The total payroll is 35,000. Meaning it's created 200% of the uh of of the jobs.Meaning you have a service economy, not you think about is healthcare interest rate sensitive, it's demographically sensitive. So you don't really I mean you think the interests sensitive parts of the economy are under some pressure. Lower income who are the borrowers in this economy are having a tough time.So would I have cut. Yes, I would ...

Job Numbers Rigging Accusations - The President accused job numbers of being rigged, leading to the firing of Erica McInterer, but the White House has not provided evidence to support this claim [1] - The President's top economic advisor argued the change was for "more transparency" and claimed the revision was the largest, while the President reiterated his belief that the system is rigged on social media [2][4] - The President plans to name a replacement in the next three or four days [5] Data Reliability and Revisions - Job numbers are frequently revised, especially with uncertainty surrounding tariffs [3] - Revisions can be larger than the initial number itself, indicating potential issues [4] - BLS reports have become more accurate over time, with revisions averaging less than 02% of total employment [11][14] Importance of Jobs Report Data - The government assesses job numbers by surveying households and businesses, covering over 600000 work sites [7] - The Federal Reserve uses these numbers to make decisions about interest rates, and they also influence social security, business cycle assessments, and poverty levels [7][8] - The jobs report is considered the "gold standard" of data on the labor market [8] - Changing the methodology or retiring the data set would be alarming to the economics community [9] - Flawed data can be as dangerous as having an obediently partisan pilot [9] Erica McInterer's Reputation - Erica McInterer is described as a lifelong civil servant and a data-focused economist who doesn't care about politics [15][16] - She was willing to speak truth to power and give superiors bad news, even when the data from BLS was unfavorable [16][17]

President Trump firing the Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Friday. This followed a week's jobs report. The Bureau revised May and June numbers, down by a combined 258,000 jobs.That was the biggest two-month downward revision we've seen since April of 2020. Obviously, the beginning of COVID. President Trump posting on Truth Social this morning that the jobs report was rigged to quote make a great Republican success look less stellar.He says he will be picking a replacement in the coming days. Joining ...

Market Concerns & Economic Slowdown - Wall Street economists are concerned that payroll numbers signal an economic slowdown, despite dismissing political alteration claims [2] - Goldman Sachs indicates payroll growth aligns with slowing big data indicators and broader growth data [2] - The real debate centers on the severity of the economic slowdown, not data manipulation [3] - The US economy is growing at a below-potential pace [3] BLS Data & Credibility - Former BLS Commissioner Gian states large revisions can occur at economic inflection points [3][4] - Gian emphasizes the BLS commissioner cannot alter the numbers due to automation and numerous personnel involved [4] - Friends of BLS criticize the firing of the commissioner, asserting it undermines the credibility of federal economic statistics [5] - The White House provides no evidence of data alteration, citing revisions as proof of failures [6] Market Reaction & Interest Rates - The market is trading on potential changes at the Fed, possibly hastened by a commissioner replacement [17][18] - The market may not fully price in economic weakness, potentially leading to positive surprises [20] - There is concern that the US can do better than 144,000-147,000 jobs added in recent months [10] - The market is up 235 points in futures, and interest rates are steady [9]

Government Policy & Labor Statistics - The White House aims to appoint allies to the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1] - This follows a "dismal" jobs report and the firing of the agency's commissioner by President Trump [1]