[Music] [Applause] One out of every 20 high school students drop out before graduation. 8% of college students change their major at least once and about 1% of the US population earn a doctoral degree. Based on this information, what would you say is the likelihood of someone who dropped out of high school earning a doctorate. What would you say is the likelihood of someone who started college as a costume design major becoming a math professor.Your gut subjectively, even without all those numbers, but with ...

The empirical rule is often used in statistics for forecasting final outcomes. After calculating the standard deviation and before collecting complete data, this rule can be used as a rough estimate of the outcome of the impending data to be collected and analyzed.Learn more here: https://t.co/sgFis7rNRA ...

I have a lot of memories and uh I'm going to try to create some impact through this talk because I live eat and breathe data and AI and I want to make sure that if you guys who knows about data knows about numbers and doesn't even know about numbers can you do data AI and data science or not that's what I'm going to talk about today so who is she any ideas. Uh, so she's Craigslistwood, someone who studied operations research at Stanford, didn't have any idea about data, AI, numbers, and ended up being VP of ...

Blockchain Adoption - The Department of Commerce is expected to start issuing its statistics on the blockchain [1] Leadership Recognition - Lutnick refers to someone as "the crypto president" [1]

Statistical Interpretation & Uncertainty - Statistics addresses reasoning under uncertainty, a more complex question than calculus's rate of change [3] - Challenges like climate change, public health, and AI rely on making decisions with incomplete information [4] - The same data can tell different stories based on its presentation [4] Cognitive Biases in Statistics - Uncertainty is unintuitive, making statistical interpretation prone to errors [3] - Selection bias, where sampling skews results, can affect data interpretation [15] - Common sense is crucial for identifying misinformation and statistical misconceptions [26] - Correlation does not imply causation; coinciding trends don't necessarily indicate a causal relationship [27] COVID-19 Testing & Interpretation - A positive COVID-19 test with 80% sensitivity and 98% specificity may result in less than 50% chance of actually having COVID-19 [9][11] - With 1% of 1,000 people having COVID-19, a test with 80% sensitivity identifies 8 true positives, while 98% specificity results in 20 false positives, leading to a 29% chance of actually having the virus if testing positive [12][13] Data Presentation & Misinterpretation - Misleading graphs can distort data interpretation, such as hospitalization rates based on vaccination status without adjusting for cohort size [28][29] - Hospitalization data adjusted for vaccination cohort size reveals that unvaccinated individuals were overrepresented in hospitalizations [31][33] Combating Statistical Misinformation - Three key questions to combat statistical misinformation: How was the data collected? What is the context? Has the data been pulled or combined? [36][38][40]

Data Integrity & Economic Impact - The corruption of data gathering is highly significant, impacting the stability and coherence of society [1][2] - BLS data guides Federal Reserve interest rate policy and business decisions [4][5] - Manipulating employment data could mask the impact of tariffs [6] - Inaccurate inflation data could reduce cost of living adjustments for seniors [23][24] - Trillions of dollars in bonds are tied to the accuracy of economic statistics [24] Erosion of Trust & Public Perception - The public may accept manipulated information, highlighting a broader trend of deconstructing truth [9][10] - Weaponizing and deconstructing truth is particularly effective when it serves specific agendas [9] - Distinguishing between truth and fiction is becoming increasingly difficult [12] - There is no upside for Americans in hiding truths that have already been paid for [18] Political & Strategic Considerations - The current environment presents a window to consolidate power by controlling information [20] - Some individuals may seek out numbers and justifications that align with their preferred narratives [13]

Inflation Trends - US inflation accelerated in July [1] Economic Concerns - Intensifying fear of politicized statistics due to the potential new leader of the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1]

Data Integrity & Political Influence - The report highlights concerns about potential political influence on the integrity of economic statistics, specifically regarding the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) [1][3][10] - The U S is considered the gold standard for economic statistics, but faces challenges due to budget constraints affecting data accuracy [10][11] - The president's criticism of the BLS commissioner and the jobs numbers raises concerns about politicization of data [1][3] Statistical Methodology & Accuracy - The report emphasizes the inherent margin of error in jobs reports, citing an example of approximately 100,000 jobs per month [5] - Job number variations can occur due to incomplete company responses and statistical adjustments for labor force changes [7] - The BLS uses tax records annually to cross-check and adjust payroll data, addressing potential overcounting [15][16] - Statistical variations have been present since 1923 when these surveys began [8] Data Usage & Trust - Investors, traders, and economists rely on the accuracy and reliability of U S economic data [9] - Politicization of data could erode trust in U S statistics, similar to concerns raised about data from other countries [9][10] - Revisions to initial job numbers are common and should be expected [12][13]

Economic Data & Trust - Concerns arise regarding the potential manipulation of economic data by government leaders, drawing parallels to situations in Greece, China, and Argentina where data fudging led to negative market consequences [3][4] - The integrity of economic statistics and the rule of law are crucial for maintaining foreign investment and business confidence in the United States [6][16] - A strong, independent civil service is essential for producing reliable economic data, a factor that has historically distinguished the US from other countries [6][7] Political Influence & Data Revision - Revisions to economic numbers are a normal occurrence across different presidential administrations [1] - Accusations of rigged numbers, particularly concerning pre-election job reports, are demonstrably false, as the report prior to the election was notably poor [12][13][18] - The politicization of economic data undermines confidence in the US economy and its institutions [15][16] Market Impact & Investor Confidence - Economists express fears that manipulating economic data could lead the US towards instability similar to Latin American countries [5] - Distorting economic data can trigger a revolt from world markets, as seen in Argentina [4] - If businesses and investors lose faith in the accuracy of US economic data and the rule of law, it could negatively impact investment decisions [7] Media & Disinformation - The media is criticized for allowing false statements regarding economic data to go unchallenged [17][18] - The spread of disinformation about economic numbers can mislead the public and erode trust in institutions [19] Job Market Analysis - The job report prior to the November election showed an increase of only 12,000 jobs, indicating a weak job market [13] - The disconnect between reported economic conditions and how people are "feeling it" (experiencing the economy) is a key issue [9]

Market & Trade - Concerns arise about the trustworthiness of jobs data, especially with potential political influence [1][2] - Markets are seen as a crucial check on presidential actions, reacting to market movements [5] - Tariffs were perceived to be nearing conclusion, but recent events have introduced uncertainty [4] Economic Statistics & Federal Reserve - US economic statistics are vital for policymaking and maintaining confidence in the financial system [9][10] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is critical for the success and stability of US markets [7][8] - The process of compiling economic data involves multiple offices and steps, making manipulation difficult [11][12]