U.S. retail sales decelerated this fall, the Census Bureau said Tuesday https://t.co/C1pqcvBoF6 ...

Core Insights - Retail store sales were flat in October, following a growth of 0.1% in September, which was below the expectations of economists who anticipated a growth of 0.1% for October [1] Summary by Category - **Sales Performance** - October retail sales showed no growth, remaining flat compared to the previous month [1] - September sales had a slight increase of 0.1% [1] - **Economic Expectations** - Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecasted a growth of 0.1% for October, indicating a discrepancy between expectations and actual performance [1]

US retail sales were little changed in October, restrained by a decline at auto dealers and weaker gasoline receipts https://t.co/4KF7WbVZkB ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic activity data from China for November, highlighting significant misses in market expectations across various sectors, particularly retail sales and industrial production [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Industrial Production (IP)** - IP growth decreased to **4.8% year-on-year** in November from **4.9%** in October, falling short of forecasts (GS: **5.1%**, Bloomberg consensus: **5.0%**) [2][8]. - Sequentially, IP showed a **0.5% month-on-month** increase after seasonal adjustment, contrasting with a **-0.4%** decline in October [8]. - The slowdown in IP was primarily driven by reduced output in the automobile and utilities sectors, which outweighed gains in special equipment and pharmaceuticals [8]. 2. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)** - FAI contracted by **-2.6% year-to-date** year-on-year in November, worsening from **-1.7%** in October [3][9]. - On a single-month basis, FAI fell by **-10.7% year-on-year** in November, slightly improving from **-11.4%** in October [9]. - The decline in FAI is attributed to statistical corrections by the NBS and ongoing issues in the property sector [9]. 3. **Retail Sales** - Retail sales growth significantly slowed to **1.3% year-on-year** in November, down from **2.9%** in October, missing expectations (GS: **2.3%**, consensus: **2.9%**) [6][11]. - The decline was broad-based, with notable drops in auto sales (-8.3%) and home appliances (-19.4%) [11]. - The earlier start of the "Double 11" Online Shopping Festival distorted demand, pulling some sales from November into October [11]. 4. **Services Industry Output** - The Services Industry Output Index growth moderated to **4.2% year-on-year** in November from **4.6%** in October, indicating a slowdown in the services sector [12]. 5. **Property Market** - The property market continued to show weakness, with new home starts and completions contracting by **-27.6%** and **-25.3%** year-on-year, respectively [13]. - Property sales volume fell by **-17.0%** and value by **-24.6%** in November, reflecting ongoing challenges in the sector [13]. 6. **Labor Market** - The nationwide unemployment rate remained stable at **5.1%** in November, with the youth unemployment rate for ages 16-24 declining slightly to **17.3%** [14]. 7. **GDP Growth Forecast** - Incorporating October-November data, there is a small downside risk to the Q4 real GDP growth forecast of **4.5% year-on-year**, with a sequential improvement in December activity needed to achieve a **5%** full-year growth [15]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes that the recent slump in economic indicators should not be over-interpreted, as statistical corrections have played a significant role alongside fundamental economic challenges [1][9]. - The data reflects broader economic trends in China, including the impact of "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged downturn in the property market, which are critical for investors to consider [1][9].

Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales, excluding auto, gas, and restaurants, remained flat, based on real credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions [1] - Year-over-year retail sales increased by 45%, a slight decrease from the previous month [2] Calendar Impact - The shift of Cyber Monday to December impacted November's retail performance [2] - Seasonal expectations from pandemic spending affected unadjusted changes [2] - November retail performance was affected by the loss of Cyber Monday to December [2][3] Sector Performance - Seven out of twelve sectors experienced month-over-month declines, including electronics and appliances [3] - Digital products, building garment supplies, and general merchandise also saw declines [3] - Food and beverage and restaurants experienced growth [4] Consumer Behavior - Shoppers indicated that more than half of their holiday shopping was yet to be done, the highest percentage since 2019 [4][5]

Retail Sales Performance - CNBC NRF retail monitor shows November holiday shopping getting off to a lackluster start [1] - Retail sales powered by real credit card spending data rising just 012% [2] - Core retail sales (excluding auto, gas, and restaurants) was flat [3] - Year-over-year retail sales up 45% and core up 47% [3] Calendar Impact - Cyber Monday fell in December this year, impacting November sales [3][4] - Thanksgiving was late this year, delaying holiday shopping [8] - 71% of the time Black Friday through Cyber Monday lands in November [10] Sector Performance - Seven of the 12 sectors saw declines month-over-month, including electronics and appliances [5] - Food and beverage and restaurants saw gains, but not necessarily at malls [6] - Digital products, building garment supplies, and general merchandise were down [5][6] Consumer Behavior - Shoppers had more than half of their shopping left to do after Thanksgiving weekend, the highest percentage since 2019 [6] - American Express data showed business up 9% from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday [9] Future Outlook - The next couple years are going to be normal, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday in November [11] - Industry is still battling tough comparisons to pandemic spending in 2021 and 2022 [12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Chinese economy, specifically the activity data for November, including industrial production (IP), fixed asset investment (FAI), and retail sales [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Industrial Production (IP) Growth**: - Expected to increase to 5.1% year-on-year (yoy) in November from 4.9% yoy in October, driven by improved export growth, which is projected to rise to +5.9% yoy in November from -1.1% yoy in October [4][5]. - Notable decline in auto output growth, dropping to 3.0% yoy in November from 11.3% yoy in October [4]. - Steel production continues to contract, with estimates showing a year-on-year decline of -1.8% in November [4]. 2. **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: - Anticipated to remain depressed at -9.5% yoy in November, an improvement from -11.4% yoy in October [5]. - Approximately 60% of the FAI contraction in October was attributed to statistical corrections rather than a genuine slowdown [5]. - Ongoing "anti-involution" policies and a prolonged property downturn are expected to continue affecting manufacturing and property investments [5]. 3. **Retail Sales Growth**: - Forecasted to slow to 2.3% yoy in November from 2.9% yoy in October, primarily due to declining auto sales and the earlier start of the "Singles' Day" Online Shopping Festival, which shifted some demand from November to October [5]. - Auto retail sales volume growth is expected to drop significantly to -8.1% yoy in November from -0.5% yoy in October [5]. 4. **Comparison with Market Consensus**: - The forecasts for retail sales and FAI are below market consensus, while the IP forecast aligns closely with consensus estimates [5]. Additional Important Insights - The report indicates that the recent slump in FAI is unlikely to significantly impact the official Q4 GDP figures due to the statistical corrections by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) [5]. - The services industry output index growth is expected to remain stable and above retail sales growth in November, indicating a potential divergence in sector performance [5]. This summary encapsulates the key points regarding the Chinese economic activity data for November, highlighting the trends in industrial production, fixed asset investment, and retail sales, along with their implications for the broader economic outlook.

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Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month due to weaker-than-expected retail sales data [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Stock futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 99 points, or 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 contracts both gained 0.3% [2]. - The three major indexes experienced a rally on Tuesday, with the Dow increasing by more than 660 points following economic data that supported the case for a rate cut at the Fed's upcoming policy meeting [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Retail sales figures were reported weaker than expected, contributing to the market's anticipation of a rate cut [3]. - The producer price index increased in line with economists' forecasts, further influencing market sentiment [3].

Will retail sales in China suffer from a period of “payback”? Will the trade war with America throw the economy off course? And will the property market recover?These are the three big questions China will face in 2026 https://t.co/6Vm8pVioE6 ...