Fiscal Policy & Economic Growth - The analysis suggests tariffs are running at an annual rate between $400 billion and $500 billion, potentially improving the deficit, but real GDP growth is considered the key to significantly reducing the deficit as a percentage of GDP [1] - The report anticipates real GDP growth will surprise on the high side of expectations later in the year and into 2026, driven by innovation platforms like robotics, energy storage, AI, multiomic sequencing, and blockchain technology, all catalyzed by AI [1] - The analysis highlights deregulation, particularly in crypto, AI, and nuclear energy, as a significant factor for economic growth, with tax changes encouraging manufacturing and innovation through accelerated depreciation schedules and full expensing of equipment, R&D, and software [1] Inflation & Monetary Policy - The report indicates that while inflation may seem stuck in the 2% to 3% range, innovation-driven productivity gains could lead to deflation in the coming years [2] - The analysis points out that M2 money supply growth has significantly dropped compared to the COVID boom, and the velocity of money is declining, potentially diffusing inflationary pressures [2] - The yield curve, measured by the two-year Treasury yield relative to the three-month Treasury yield, indicates tight monetary policy, which is expected to have disinflationary or deflationary effects [3] - True inflation CPI is reported at 19%, even with tariffs factored in, and consumer inflation expectations are expected to decline [3] Market Indicators & Investment Strategy - The analysis notes that manufacturing has been contracting for the last three years, and services are not in great shape, signaling potential economic concerns [4] - The report highlights that AI-powered capital spending is increasing, supported by new tax rules, while the trade deficit is being addressed [5] - The analysis observes that pending home sales are deteriorating, and new home inventory is high, potentially leading to price cuts and impacting the CPI [5] - The report suggests that the return on investment in the US is expected to increase due to innovation, tax laws, and deregulation, potentially strengthening the dollar [5] - The analysis notes that corporate profits are healthy, but quality of earnings and harnessing new technologies will be crucial for future growth [5] - The report observes that commodity prices are going nowhere, and gold is breaking out to all-time highs relative to metals, possibly signaling deflationary concerns [5]

Trade Balance & GDP Growth - The trade deficit widened to $783 billion from $602 billion [1] - Imports increased by 59%, while exports increased by 03% [1] - Increased imports may negatively impact GDP growth outlook for the third quarter [2] - The increase in imports may be due to companies stocking up before tariffs were reimposed in August [2] - August trade numbers may differ if the import surge reverses [3] Labor Market - Jobless claims are now at 37000, slightly higher than the anticipated 23000 [1] - Continuing claims are at 194 million, down from 10000944 [1] - ADP reported only 54000 jobs created [2]

Trade Balance - Canada's merchandise trade deficit narrowed more than expected [1] Export Performance - The country's exports show signs of a slow rebound [1] External Factors - US tariffs impacted Canada's exports [1]

Trade Deficit - The US trade deficit increased to a four-month high in July [1] - Companies accelerated imports of goods and materials [1] Trade Policy Impact - Companies acted in anticipation of new tariffs imposed by President Trump on global trading partners [1]

Trade Balance - India's trade deficit widened more than expected last month [1] - Inbound shipments rose more than exports [1]

Trade Deficit - The US agricultural trade deficit reached a record high in the first half of 2025 [1] Industry Impact - The report highlights the continued decline of American farmers' dominant role in global exports [1]

Trade Balance - US overall trade deficit narrowed by 160% to $602 billion in June [1] - US-China trade deficit decreased by approximately one-third to $95 billion, the lowest since February 2004 [1] - US-China trade deficit has shrunk by $222 billion, a 70% decrease, after five consecutive months of decline [1]

Trade Balance - US trade deficit narrowed to the tightest since September 2023 [1] - Companies scaled back on imports after a massive surge earlier in the year [1]

The White House released adjusted reciprocal tariff rates covering imports from a range of trading partners, aimed at narrowing trade deficits and raising revenues.Here's what they are https://t.co/inGacMqICq https://t.co/wehI1AhTIf ...

Why has Switzerland been hit so hard. So this came as a complete surprise to the Swiss. The reason for this is Switzerland's great huge surplus with the US.If you ranked the US trade deficits with other countries, the Switzerland ranks number 12. It's a $38 billion. So that obviously is a big number and that's mostly due to pharma.We know that pharma is one of the things that Trump targets. And Switzerland's just got the short end of the stick here. So what has been the response of the Swiss government. The ...