Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of trade policies and tariffs on the U.S. economy and global markets, particularly in relation to President Trump's administration and its trade strategies [1][5][21]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Policy Changes**: - An increase in the "reciprocal" tariff rate from 10% to 15% is anticipated, while the 25% pharma tariff is expected to be delayed until after the 2026 midterm elections. This suggests an average effective tariff rate increase of about 14 percentage points in 2025, with a further rise to nearly 20% in 2026 [1][5]. 2. **Inflation Impact**: - The tariffs have begun to affect inflation, with estimates indicating that 60% of the tariffs implemented in February have passed through, raising the core PCE price index by 0.2%. A further 1.2% price level increase is expected, leading to a year-on-year core PCE inflation rate above 3% in the second half of the year [5][10]. 3. **Consumer Spending Trends**: - Real personal consumption has stagnated for six months, a rare occurrence outside of recession periods. This stagnation, coupled with a sharp decline in housing activity, has led to a downward revision of the H1 real GDP growth estimate to 1.1%, which is about a percentage point below potential [10][12]. 4. **Labor Market Dynamics**: - Private payroll growth has slowed significantly, with only 74,000 jobs added in June. The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with a risk of hitting "stall speed," where job creation is insufficient to maintain low unemployment rates [14][16]. 5. **Monetary Policy Outlook**: - The slowdown in economic activity has strengthened the case for earlier monetary policy easing. A forecast of three consecutive 25 basis point cuts is expected starting in September, bringing the funds rate down to 3.5%-3.75% by the end of 2025 [16][18]. 6. **Risks to Economic Forecasts**: - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, which could destabilize long-term inflation expectations. A potential threat to Fed independence could arise from political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration [20][23]. 7. **Global Economic Implications**: - A 30% U.S. tariff on imports from Europe could reduce Euro area GDP by 0.5% by the end of 2026. However, there is cautious optimism regarding Euro area growth due to fiscal expansion in Germany and strength in Spain [21][24]. 8. **China's Economic Situation**: - China's GDP growth has exceeded expectations, but there are concerns about a potential "second China shock" affecting global manufacturing employment. Calls for higher trade barriers against China are likely to increase, although the effectiveness of such measures is debated [26][28]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes that the current economic conditions are influenced by a combination of tariff impacts, consumer behavior, and labor market trends, which collectively shape the outlook for both the U.S. and global economies [10][14][26]. - The potential for a cyclical upturn in Germany and continued strength in Spain is noted, indicating regional variations in economic performance despite overarching global challenges [24][25].

Its resilience over the past decade is cause for celebration, and has largely kept at bay the twin scourges of recession and unemployment.But governments are undermining the fundamental sources of the world economy’s strength https://t.co/c55VTptCNv ...

Well, I think let's back up and talk about principles. As you think about across time, the the the Fed was set up to be independent and have a dual mandate, unemployment, price stability, i.e. inflation. And their job is to manage you add their management economy through short-term interest rate adjustments to accomplish that outcome.And I think a stable central bank is a is really very important and very important in the United States because of this size economy with 30 trillion dollars plus of debt out t ...

Applications for US unemployment benefits declined for a fifth straight week to the lowest level since mid-April, showing a resilient job market https://t.co/q3b2i79A1o ...

Trade Negotiations between US and South Africa - South Africa is developing a document, potentially a template, for trade negotiations with the US [1] - The current tariffs could put 100,000 jobs at stake [2] - The US has a surplus on the treaty side, requiring a balancing act to achieve equilibrium between the two nations [3] - The automobile industry and strategic areas may be affected by the trade deal [4] - Failure to reach a deal could result in job losses, with over 2,000 jobs potentially impacted down the value chain [5] - The primary concern is to finalize the trade deal by August 1st, or to secure an extension [6] Economic Concerns and Strategies - Losing a trading partner like the US could significantly impact the economy and increase unemployment [7] - South Africa recently obtained a loan from the World Bank [11] - A total loan of approximately 4 billion Rand is expected by the end of the year, staggered for municipalities and policy loop [13] - South Africa is open to issuing Eurobonds for financing [13][14] G20 and Global Issues - The hope is to achieve an agreement and emerge with a communique [7] - Sticking points in the G20 include sustainable finance and global imbalances [8][9] - The US's stance on climate change and climate finance is creating difficulties in the G20 debate [9] - Global imbalances are a sensitive issue, particularly concerning China [9][10]

Australian unemployment unexpectedly climbed to a four-year high in June as hiring almost stalled, bolstering the case for the RBA to cut interest rates next month https://t.co/wi9Q20OMyF ...

India’s jobless rate remained steady at 5.6% for those aged 15 years and above in June, data from the Statistics Ministry shows https://t.co/HCtItdbMTL ...

Economic Growth and Consumer Confidence - Global economic growth remains uncertain, with high interest rates impacting households and businesses[11] - Overall consumer confidence has declined due to high consumer prices, with spending slowing down across most regions except Brazil[13][22] - The OECD global consumer confidence index shows a downward trend, indicating reduced consumer sentiment[20] Manufacturing and Services Sector - Manufacturing experienced its first contraction in 2024, while the services sector continues to show stable growth[14] - Manufacturing growth in China and the US has stagnated, with the Eurozone still in contraction[34] - The services sector remains a bright spot in the global economy, driven by industrial production growth and capital market improvements[45] Trade and Supply Chain - Global trade volume increased by 0.7% in June, primarily driven by growth in developed economies[50] - The global supply chain market is normalizing, with the pressure index reaching historical averages in July[51] - Total port trade in June 2024 decreased compared to June 2023, mainly due to reduced activity in Asian economies[69] Employment and Inflation - Unemployment rates in the US and China continued to rise in July, while Brazil's unemployment rate showed a declining trend[73] - Inflation in developed economies is easing, with the Eurozone facing deflationary pressures[77] - Consumer inflation in developing economies remained stable in July, with only Russia experiencing an acceleration[84] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Most commodity prices continued to decline in August but remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels[89] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $2,439 per ounce in August[93] - Stock markets faced challenges in August, with most exchanges reporting losses[123]

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RT toly 🇺🇸 (@aeyakovenko)@blknoiz06 If profits are up there is no way unemployment will sustainably rise. People will spend the profits on more shit. ...