The new budget law counts on better economic growth to help increase revenue, but its provisions on immigration will make that difficult, @claudia_sahm says (via @opinion) https://t.co/bqrnflcD6Q ...

Monetary Policy & Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence is crucial for achieving stable economic outcomes, especially low and stable inflation [3][4] - Markets would be concerned if central bank independence were threatened [4] - The Fed leadership likely believes tariff effects won't cause prolonged high inflation, especially given the less tight labor market compared to 2022 [8] - The FOMC holds a range of views regarding the appropriateness of lowering interest rates while tariff effects are present [11] Economic Outlook & Data Analysis - Recent data suggests the labor market doesn't require significant rate cuts, and underlying inflation trends are moving towards 2% [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates three rate cuts later this year, potentially starting in September, due to a relaxed view on inflation [5][6] - Consumer spending appears somewhat softer when adjusted for tariff-driven price increases [14] - Tariffs are expected to slow the pace of economic growth due to their function as taxes and the uncertainty they create [14] - While tariffs may lead to slower consumption and final demand growth, other factors like bank earnings, M&A, and IPO activity suggest increased business and consumer confidence [15] - The economy is not expected to enter recessionary territory [15] - Growth for the year is expected to be in the low 1% range, below the trend pace of around 2% [19]

if in fact President Trump uh gets his wish as is his right under law to appoint a new chair who will be more in line with his views. He said he thinks the interest rate really should be at 1% or even below that. Is that good for Bank of America. Is that good for the economy.Well, let me make two things. One is you're absolutely right. Uh in May of next year, the term of the current Fed chair ends after being reappointed.And you it's the right of the elected uh president to appoint the next uh successor and ...

I mean speaking of rates, you've been for last year or so at least higher for longer camp and Fed for the better part of the year has been on hold. So that's been right. What do you think happens next. Well, you know, the trajectory here, you know, you're asking what happens next.You're talking about in 2025. You think we'll get a few cuts. I I think there's I think there's a reasonable chance we get a cut or two.Um but not certain. And you know I think the market is absorbing the trade policy but on the ca ...

We have a big special guest on set with us for an extended conversation this morning. We are very happy that Ken Langon is here. Of course, he's the Home Depot co-founder. He's currently chairman and president of Invamemed Associates.And Ken, it's been far too long. We have missed you. We've been looking forward to what you have to say this morning.I thought I thought you were doing what they do with the Indians, taking them out to a tree and say, "Deie there." Oh, we've missed you and we've been working a ...

ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller says the economy doesn’t justify interest rates that stimulate growth, allowing officials to take a pause from easing https://t.co/g3r5gXz54l ...

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said steady economic activity would allow the central bank to wait and see the effects that tariff increases have on prices and economic growth before resuming interest-rate reductions https://t.co/VifGIqfXmT ...

Market Trends & Geopolitical Risks - Investors are closely monitoring Iran and Israel's trading strikes, alongside the Federal Reserve's meeting [1] - Markets appear inclined to shrug off risks related to geopolitical or trade tensions [2] - There's no shortage of a bid from the international community [9][10] Interest Rates & Debt Market - Volatility in rates is a significant concern [2] - US debt level is a frequent topic of discussion on Wall Street [1] - Credit markets have been exceptionally resilient, with both high yield and investment grade retracing losses [3] - Credit market activity is incredibly resilient, potentially leading to a record first half, absent the Covid acceleration of debt [4] Inflation & Economic Growth - Increased inflation is expected to be a focus in the Fed's projections and press release, with a potential downgrade of growth and one rate cut pushed into next year [13] - Tariffs are expected to increase inflation, with businesses potentially passing through about 50% of tariff costs to consumers [17] - The Fed may adopt a more hawkish bias than the market anticipates, potentially pushing one rate cut into next year [20][21] Fed Policy - The Fed is in a position to wait for more data, given strong labor markets and favorable inflation numbers [10] - The Fed aims to temper expectations of a "Fed put," viewing the inflationary impact as a one-off event that will be resolved by the fall of 2026 [19]

Let's just scenario play. Yes, please. What happens if Powell rips in a 100 basis point cut.Right now, I'll tell you. So, one part which is mathematical is the interest on the debt goes down. We save 300 billion.But there's something else that happens which is the Fed does control the front end of the curve. Meaning, how do people borrow money for small amounts of time from one day to about two years. If you make that cheaper, it's a test that's true as time.What happens is people borrow more money. that fu ...

former Treasury official and Morning Joe economic analyst Steve Ratner. Steve, there has indeed been plenty of speculation about how Trump's tariffs will impact the country. So tell us, how does the economy look almost 5 months into Trump's second term.Yeah, it's interesting, Jonathan. I think uh all of us predicted that inflation would start to go up as a result of those tariffs, but yesterday there was a report that in fact it has really not yet gone up, or at least not yet gone up. So the commerce depart ...