Economic Slowdown & Recession Concerns - The US economy is slowing down, though not yet in recession, with weak payroll prints attributed to both lack of demand and supply due to immigration crackdown [2][3] - Construction spending is down year-on-year, signaling potential recessionary pressures [4] - Rate cuts are unlikely to stimulate growth and may negatively impact retirees' interest income, potentially increasing uncertainty [5][6][7] Uncertainty & Policy Impact - Uncertainty, stemming from tariffs, immigration policies, and geopolitical factors, is acting as a significant drag on the economy, hindering business investment and hiring [8][9][10][11] - Businesses are hesitant to make decisions due to policy uncertainty, adopting a "wait and see" approach [11] - While tax cuts are beneficial for corporations, the unpredictable nature of tariffs creates challenges for long-term planning and investment in manufacturing [12][13] Trade & Tariffs - The industry emphasizes the need for clear and consistent trade rules, suggesting a long-term tariff regime established through Congress to provide businesses with certainty [14][15] - Tariffs are viewed as a tax on consumers, and their fluctuating nature makes it difficult for businesses to compete and plan investments [16] Market Outlook - The market's positive reaction is likely due to anticipation of rate cuts, but these cuts may not address the underlying economic issues [5][6] - Despite the challenges, the US economy has the potential for steady growth around 2%, but uncertainty is hindering progress [9]

Hungarian central bank governor Mihaly Varga said currency stability is key for slowing inflation and laying the groundwork for more robust economic growth https://t.co/yvj0ex4Tmv ...

ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said inflation is well under control and economic growth is in line with forecasts https://t.co/mrXk5BYvPK ...

Britain faces an “acute challenge” to raise its underlying rate of economic growth as long as participation in the workforce remains weak, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said https://t.co/ZKhqP4CwTn ...

Chile right-wing presidential candidate Jose Antonio Kast pledged to scrap a capital gains tax on some stock sales and spur investment to propel economic growth https://t.co/su35m3bw2g ...

What does this pressure campaign look like when it comes to the US position of global trust across the world economy. I think it's important for us not to look at this as an attack on one individual Fed governor, but an attack on an institution and the independence of the Federal Reserve has been, at its core, central to the confidence that investors around the world have in the U.S. economy. You know, in my old job, one of the things I did was be with investors in the United States, the people around the w ...

For more on the broader market, let's bring in TD Cowan's president Jeff Solomon's here at Post9. Talk about 6% sub 6% mortgage rates. You think we get it like Marvin's hopes? >> I mean, we could. I I I do think the next move for the Fed is to go lower, though. We've had this ongoing debate, right? I just don't think I think it's going to be higher for longer and I think it's because we've seen resilience in the in the in in the economy. Uh if you just take a look at, by the way, just this is something we'r ...

Economic Policy & Growth - Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto highlighted social programs as drivers of economic growth [1] Political Context - The address served as a victory lap for President Subianto regarding his social programs [1]

Economic Overview - Stalling economic growth sets a tense backdrop [1] - Slumping oil revenues contribute to the tense backdrop [1] - A widening budget deficit adds to the economic strain [1] Geopolitical Context - Putin's summit with Trump aims to discuss an end to the war in Ukraine [1]

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - Treasury Secretary suggested the Fed should consider a 50 basis points (0.5%) rate cut at the next meeting in September [1] - The market has indicated for three years that monetary policy is too tight, as the ten-year Treasury yield has been trading below the Fed funds rate [10] - The Fed's own standards suggest interest rates are well above neutral [9] - There is pressure for lower rates, and the list of potential replacements for Jay Powell is expanding [19] - Lower rates would help interest-sensitive sectors of the economy like housing, autos, and manufacturing [23] Trade & Tariffs - President Trump is trying to protect U S business and industry through negotiations with China [2] - The Nvidia chip export tax is being considered as a model for others, potentially moving towards industrial policy [4] - National security concerns are a significant factor in trade policy [3][5] Data & Economic Indicators - Concerns exist regarding the integrity and quality of BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data due to patterns and magnitude of revisions [7][8][13] - There is a need for more rigorous quantitative standards for economic data [7] - The trend in payroll growth has slowed [9] - The economy rebounded in the second quarter, and growth in the third quarter looks good [31]