Monetary Policy - FOMC 投票结果为 9-2，是 30 多年来美联储政策分歧最大的一次 [1] - 市场对 9 月份降息的预期降至 45% [1]

This has been the biggest FOMC meeting ever!Haha, not.Anyways, markets are moving down as there's still no rate cut and #Bitcoin lost the range.I think it's a great chance to accumulate. Could be that we fall deeper, but not for long. August/September new ATHs. https://t.co/TDUbqlBsJY ...

Now just a 47% chance of 1 rate cut in September after Powell's presser 🥶 https://t.co/Jwer3aErTGTylerD 🧙‍♂️ (@Tyler_Did_It):62% chance of 1 rate cut in September headed into Powell's presserLet's see how that holds up https://t.co/t4kWK0QgAT ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@Claudia_Sahm @AllisonSchrager “The path to a rate cut is for the Fed to get comfortable that these tariffs are gonna be a one-off,” says @Claudia_Sahm.Tune in for Fed Day analysis 🎥https://t.co/VrIJWN9cHp ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@Claudia_Sahm Fed Day: Is a September rate cut still on the table?https://t.co/VrIJWN8ERR ...

For those hoping for a rate cut, this means we probably do not get one for quite a bit as the economy continues to show strength.For those hoping cuts = price go up, good news is bad newsFor those believing cuts = price go down, this is incredible newsWatcher.Guru (@WatcherGuru):JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US economy grew 3% in Q2, beating expectations. ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady this week, with a potential rate cut in September [1] - Survey data indicates a 27% expectation for a rate cut, despite 100% believing there will be no cut in July [1] - The chance of recession has fallen to 31%, down from 38% in June and 53% in May [2] - Current rate outlook anticipates approximately two rate cuts this year and two more next year [2] - The market is pricing in 100 basis points of cuts, but the 10-year forecast only goes down to 425 basis points, suggesting a steepening of the curve [10][11] - Easing to come will be a recalibration of bringing down the policy rate and in the process resloping the yield curve, potentially another 100 basis points down to 338 basis points [13] Potential Fed Chair Candidates - The race to replace Fed Chair Jay Powell is a three-way tie between Kevin Walsh (24%), Scott Besson (24%), and Hasset (22%) [1][3] - Fed Governor Waller is also a candidate, polling at 14% [3] - Scott Besson suggests a new Fed chair could be picked as early as December [3] - Paul McCaulay advocates for Governor Chris Waller, citing his monetary policy scholarship, experience as a Fed governor, and sound economic principles [5][6][7] Potential Dissent - There is an expectation that Governor Waller and Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman could dissent with the decision not to cut rates [8] - A double dissent from Fed governors hasn't been seen since 1993 [9]

Interest Rate Expectations and Fed Policy - The market anticipates a September rate cut with approximately a 65% probability [5] - The Fed's potential rate cut is linked to successfully navigating tariff impacts and observing inflation reports [3][6][7] - Current interest rates at 45% (implied 45%) are considered above restrictive in real terms (approximately 2%), suggesting a potential need for a rate cut [3] - The Fed is expected to provide clarity on the conditions (what), timing (when), and reasons (why) for potential rate cuts, particularly concerning tariff impacts [5][6] - Market implied inflation expectations are rangebound and consumer inflation expectations have decreased from previous highs of 6% to 7%, potentially giving the Fed leeway to cut rates if these trends continue [7][8] Market Conditions and Investment Strategy - Short-term market exuberance is noted, with the market up 30% from April lows, leading to high valuations and overbought conditions in public markets [9] - Near-term, the current moment may not be the ideal buying opportunity, but long-term investors should consider earnings growth, margins, and valuations [10] - Private markets are exhibiting meaningfully lower valuations, higher margins, and higher earnings growth compared to public markets [11] Impact of Rate Cuts and Capital Markets - A rate cut would be welcomed, especially for private market participants, as rates have already decreased by about 1% [4] - Constructive capital markets are likely to drive an uptick in M&A activity, which has already rebounded in June [12]

🇺🇸 FOMC: Polymarket users predict a 95% chance that the Fed will not make any rate cut changes this Wednesday. https://t.co/Hj06tRgl7X ...

President Trump making a rare visit to the Federal Reserve, generating a few awkward moments with Chairman Jay Powell. The president said ahead of the ahead of time that he was visiting to check out the central bank's ongoing renovation project. Uh President Trump has also been publicly pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates.Trump appeared at the site in a hard hat next to Powell. There was a moment of awkwardness as the two men went back and forth about the cost of that construction. You're including the ...