Bond traders have a lot riding on Jerome Powell's press conference today, when they hope to get support for the view that further rate cuts are in store https://t.co/1TRpLO48qP ...

The Fed’s expected rate cuts are fueling hopes of a long-awaited deal comeback, but Apollo’s Scott Kleinman anticipates private equity firms will keep selling their assets at a slower pace for the next few years https://t.co/qgcZIcUcF8 ...

We have a huge week this week.Earnings for Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta.FOMC, more rate cuts are expected.Trump meeting with Xi to discuss trade deal. ...

school. For more on how today's CPI might impact the road ahead for rate cuts, let's welcome in the Wall Street Journal's Nick Tamaros. It's good to it's good to have you.I don't know if you had a chance to listen to the conversation and the debate that the professor and Ed were having over what the Fed should do. I think we know what it will do, but what do you make of this idea that they may be walking into a problem if they cut into a situation where maybe they don't have to. Well, I I think Scott, what ...

Market Trends - CPI release is unlikely to cause a significant market movement for Bitcoin due to a crucial resistance zone [1] - Expectation of breaking through the resistance in the upcoming week [1] Monetary Policy - Anticipation of the FOMC ending Quantitative Tightening (QT) and implementing rate cuts [1] Risk Factors - Potential government shutdown is approaching [1]

Finally, volatility is about to kick in on the markets as CPI comes up.What to expect?Well, any outcome is going to provide a bias. If it's higher than expected, then we're likely seeing a first drop and then back up as a new narrative is happening.Or, when it's lower than expected, we'll probably still be building a narrative to see the FED do rate cuts.Ultimately, the previous time Powell mentioned that inflation isn't as important anymore and given that everyone is stuck in their positions, you'll probab ...

Market Trends - Expectation of a soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) print [1] - Anticipation of the start of the Altcoin bull run [1] Monetary Policy - Projection of 50-75 basis points (0.5%-0.75%) rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FED) towards the end of the year [1] Cryptocurrency - Bitcoin projected to reach $1 million [1]

Market Trends - Gold monthly RSI at 50-year high [1] - Crypto sentiment is at extreme fear [1] Monetary Policy - Quantitative Tightening (QT) will end soon [1] - Expectation of 2 rate cuts in 2025 [1] Geopolitical Factors - US-China trade deal is anticipated [1] Investment Strategy - The industry suggests this is not the time to be bearish [1]

Monetary Policy & Liquidity - The Federal Reserve is expected to halt quantitative tightening (QT) in a matter of months to ensure smooth money market function and prevent it from becoming a news item [2][3] - The discussion about the number of rate cuts is focused on the next year, influenced by personnel changes and politics, while this year, two more quarter-point (0.25%) tightenings are anticipated [3][4] Financial Stability & Risk - Recent bankruptcies in the auto sector raise concerns about potential cracks in the system, suggesting hidden issues in opaque areas of finance due to prolonged risk-taking by investors [5][6] - While balance sheets are generally in better shape compared to past expansions, the economy is more vulnerable to adverse shocks that could trigger nonlinear events like bankruptcies and job losses [7][8][11] Economic Outlook - Expansions don't die of old age, but the economy is flying "a little slower, a little closer to the ground," making it more susceptible to adverse shocks [10][11] - The government shutdown could potentially reduce GDP by a quarter-point (0.25%) per week if it continues, although the private sector is large enough to absorb the sectoral shock [13] Government Shutdown Impact - The macroeconomy should be able to endure the government shutdown, which is considered a sector-specific and regional shock [14][15]

Federal Reserve Policy - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, reaching its lowest level since September 17th [1] - Fed Chair Powell suggested, but did not explicitly state, that rate cuts are likely to continue [3] - The Fed judged it appropriate to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance at its September meeting [4] - Powell indicated the Fed might soon halt the reduction of its balance sheet (QT) due to signs of tightening liquidity conditions [6] - Powell's comments did not decisively endorse future rate cuts, but he also did not push back against market expectations for two cuts this year [8] Economic Outlook - Rising downside risks to employment have shifted the Fed's assessment of the balance of risks [4] - Data suggests higher downside risks for employment and inflation, primarily due to tariffs rather than a broader inflation issue [5] - Prior to the shutdown, data indicated the economy was on a firmer growth path [5] - The Fed is monitoring liquidity conditions, including repo rates [6] Market Observations - The market reacted positively to Powell's comments regarding the potential halt of balance sheet reduction [6] - The market firmly expects two rate cuts this year [8]