27 Jun 2025 17:07:58 ET │ 26 pages V i e w p o i n t | US Economics Weekly Summer of dove CITI'S TAKE Our base case for rate cuts to resume in September appears to have rapidly become the Fed official consensus. Two-year Treasury yields declined to reflect the likely upcoming cuts. We project the unemployment rate to rise from 4.2% to 4.4% next week, following continuing jobless claims higher. A sharper weakening in the job market (4.5% unemployment) could lead officials to bring forward the next cut to Jul ...

New home sales down nearly 14% in May. It was the biggest month overmonth decline in three years as buyers continue to grapple with stubbornly high mortgage rates. Today's data sending housing stocks lower with the ITB home construction ETF down over a percent and snapping a 4-day winning streak which had been its best stretch since January.For more, Zillow senior economist Ore Debongi joins us right now. Or great to have you with us. Thanks for having me.I was I was actually enjoying the the debate there. ...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the The Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress.” ...

So, one of the very valid criticisms of the Federal Reserve, where I worked for nearly a decade, is that they're looking at very lagged data that really is backward-looking as opposed to trying to pay closer attention to some of the especially rich realtime economic data that we have in hand right now. Unfortunately, it feels like the Fed is pretty much what we call behind the curve. So, they should be lowering interest rates and yet because they're driving using the rearview mirror, they're late to the gam ...

We've been speaking with top economists to better understand what this economic climate means for companies' bottom lines. Today, I'm speaking with CEO and Chief Strategist for QI Research Danielle DiMartino Booth. Hi, Danielle, thanks so much for taking the time to speak with me again this year.Thank you for having me. Great to be with you again. How can companies protect their bottom lines in this time of political and economic uncertainty.So, you know, the idea of battening down the hatches before the hu ...

Gentleman yields back. Gentleman from California, Mr. . Licardo, is recognized for five minutes.Thank you, Mr. . Chair. Mr.. Chairman, thank you for your testimony today. I I appreciate that your dual mandate is full employment uh and price stability and I appreciate your efforts on behalf of our country to achieve those. My understanding is that critical data is collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to help u formulate the indicators that you rely on that we rely on to understand unemployment rates, ...

branch. What's your thought about her. Quote.>> I personally think that's a very reasonable way to think about it. >> Thank you very much. I yield back.The gentleman from New York is recognized for five minutes. >> Thank you, Mr. . Chairman.Good morning, Mr. . Chair. Chair Powell, and thank you for being here.Last week, the FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at four and a quarter to 4.5%. While I was not surprised by the decision to hold rates steady, I was surprised by the ...

Key expectations M Idea Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC Michael T Gapen Chief US Economist Michael.Gapen@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0571 Matthew Hornbach Strategist Matthew.Hornbach@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1837 Jay Bacow Strategist Jay.Bacow@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2647 Sam D Coffin Economist Sam.Coffin@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4630 Diego Anzoategui Economist Diego.Anzoategui@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-8573 Lenoy Dujon US/Canada Economist Lenoy.Dujon@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2779 Heather Berg ...

ab 18 June 2025 Global Research US Economic Perspectives June FOMC: The Fed's new outlook FOMC median policy assumption this year unchanged The FOMC left rates unchanged at their meeting this week but not their projections. In the June Summary of Economic Projections, the median assumption of appropriate policy (the median "dot") for 2025 was left unrevised at 3.9%, below our expectation for a 25 bp upward revision. However, 2026 revised up 25 bp to 3.6%, which was in line with our expectations, and up 25 b ...

Full employment in an economy is when all available workers who want to work are employed, and the unemployment rate is 0%. https://t.co/aMEdRlmoEg ...