Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - Consumption growth has slowed significantly, from 3% last year to only 1% this year, marking the first two descents since 1993 focused on consumer behavior and the labor market [1] - With inflation around 2-4% and short rates at 43%, the Fed's monetary policy is considered too restrictive, suggesting potential for more rate cuts than the dot plot indicates [1] Geopolitical Risks & US-China Relations - Despite potential diplomatic efforts, both the US and China are reportedly preparing for potential conflict over Taiwan [1] - The exchange of Nvidia H20 chips for rare earth magnets is viewed as a questionable transaction, potentially enabling China's military advancements [1] - Concessions to China are seen as enabling the modernization of their combat forces, particularly in AI capabilities [1] US-Russia Relations & Sanctions - President Trump is setting a deadline for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, threatening stricter sanctions if no progress is made [1] - The US has the ability to impose more impactful sanctions on Russia by targeting remaining foreign correspondent banks that facilitate dollar transactions [2][3]

to our panel on this. So, we got what we expected, Francis. We got no cut.Okay. We got two descents from Fed governors. First time since 1993, before you were born even.Okay. I wish this this descent happened. What is Jerome Powell going to do at the next few meetings.Cuz he's on his way out and his legacy is I don't want to say on the line, but what he does is kind of how we're going to remember him because that's how things work. I might take a step back and say there's so much focus right now on Chair Po ...

💥BREAKING:POWELL SAYS FED HASN’T MADE ANY DECISIONS ABOUT SEPTEMBER MEETING. https://t.co/mC41h1r6A0 ...

LIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell FOMC Press Conferencehttps://t.co/yjNr1PFf04 ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@Claudia_Sahm @AllisonSchrager “The framework we’re gonna get this August is gonna look really similar ... It could disappoint in terms of where the Fed is headed,” says @Claudia_Sahm 🎥https://t.co/VrIJWN8ERR ...

LIVE: Jerome Powell at the FOMC After Fed Keeps Rates Steady https://t.co/6qFrHHGFmL ...

Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Interest Rates - The biggest public misunderstanding about the Fed is the idea that lower interest rates are a reward for good economic behavior, rather than a tool to manage the economy [1][2][3] - The economy is confusing, with mixed signals from unemployment and inflation indicators, making a strong case for a rate move difficult [4][5] - There's no clear case for the Fed to move rates, and anyone confident about the correct move isn't paying attention [5] - The Fed's "transitory" inflation call was conceptually correct but numerically off, and criticisms of the Fed being behind the curve were wrong [7][8][9] - Politicizing the Fed is a clear intention, with potential for "Turkey-style" economic policy if political constraints were absent [13] Trade & Tariffs - The long-term effect of Trump's tariffs is estimated to reduce GDP by 04%, which is significant but not catastrophic [18][19] - Markets may be correctly concluding that the trade situation will settle down into a world of high tariffs, leading to a slightly poorer economy but not a depression [20][21] AI & Technology - AI, or rather large language models, are not truly "thinking" but statistically predicting responses based on existing knowledge [24][25] - Significant job displacement due to AI is possible, as many jobs don't require deep thinking [25] - It's possible to believe that some AI stock prices are in a bubble while also acknowledging that AI is a seriously important new technology [23]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Treasury Secretary Bessent says he is not expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates today. https://t.co/OiMuqvisrL ...

Our next guest will weigh on uh weigh in on the deal environment, the Fed and more. Joining us now, Mullis and Company, Vice Chairman, Eric Caner. He of course a former Congressman uh of Virginia, served as House Majority Leader.Uh you you're like a Renaissance man. I could ask you anything. I know that from uh DC to the halls of uh Wall Street.I'll talk I'll start let's start with deals. Andrew loves uh talking about deals whether they're happening or not. I in the guilded age, George Russell and it's like ...

Market Trends & Trade Developments - Trade developments are being taken in stride by the markets, with a focus shifting towards earnings, the Federal Reserve, and jobs reports [2][1] - Uncertainty remains a key characteristic of the market, but trade deals are progressing, earnings are strong, and consumer spending is holding up [3] - Overall earnings are broadening out, which is healthy for the marketplace [7] Investment Strategy & Opportunities - Investors need a strategy in an uncertain market [2][3] - Strategy should involve keeping cash and locking in higher rates before the Federal Reserve potentially lowers interest rates in the latter half of the year [4] - Healthcare sector has been lagging year-to-date, potentially representing a value play [6] - AMD is highlighted as a pick due to its upside potential in the AI trade [7][8] Company Performance & Analysis - UnitedHealth Group (UNH) reported earnings of $48 per share, which was $0.40 below estimates, with revenue slightly ahead of estimates at $1116 billion (111.6 * 10^9) [5] - Despite missing on EPS, UNH stock is moving higher, possibly indicating a bottoming in the healthcare sector [5][6] - AMD increased the pricing of its MI350 chip (rival to Nvidia's Blackwell) by 67%, from $15000 to $25000, indicating strength in the AI space [8][9]