How do you invest in what appears to be a slowing but still growing economy. Rebecca Patterson is former chief investment strategist at Bridgewwater Associates, also a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Is it wrong to characterize this economy as slowing but still growing.>> From the labor market perspective, it's definitely slowing. I would even say stalling. You know, the challenge is going to be the disconnect between GDP reports and labor reports in the coming months and maybe quarters, ...

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he’s still undecided on what course of action he will support at the central bank’s Sept. 16-17 meeting, pointing to inflation data due next week https://t.co/taWlpYncFs ...

Labor Market & Economic Outlook - The labor market is cooling, but not seeing massive layoffs or a spike in unemployment [1][2] - Expectation of 85,000 jobs added, bringing the 3-month average to approximately 54,000 [2] - Anticipation of a downward revision of the monthly hiring average by about 50,000 from March 2024 to 2025 [3] - The Fed is perceived to be more focused on the labor market than inflation [4] Interest Rate & Market Impact - A 25 basis point rate cut in September is largely priced in, with a total of 60 basis points priced in, targeting rates at 3% by the end of next year [5] - Rate cuts driven by economic slowdown concerns are viewed differently by the market than cuts due to perceived restrictiveness [6] - Further rate cuts prompted by a significant labor market slowdown may not be beneficial for equities [8] - Expectation that only cash-like rates will move lower, with a term premium increase in the 5-30 year range by 30 basis points in August [10] Equity Market Strategy - Cyclical stocks' rally is considered a "sugar boost" [9] - Focus should be on structural elements for equities [11] - Broadly constructive view on equities, with companies surprising on the upside with earnings [13] - Favoring Europe, Japan, and EMX (Emerging Markets ex China) [14]

Turkey’s central bank Governor Fatih Karahan struck an optimistic note on the inflation outlook following worse-than-expected data and market turmoil https://t.co/XVlcVdnAef ...

Hungarian central bank governor Mihaly Varga said currency stability is key for slowing inflation and laying the groundwork for more robust economic growth https://t.co/yvj0ex4Tmv ...

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - Discusses the Federal Reserve and what is going on with Lisa Cook [1] - Explores how to prepare for a federal reserve regime change [1] Housing Market - Analyzes the current state of the housing market and potential solutions [1] Inflation - Examines real inflation expectations [1] Market Outlook - Considers how the market could perform for the remainder of the year [1]

All right, let's bring in someone else in the mix. Jeffrey's chief market strategist David Zervos with his outlook. It's not surprising that Fed Governor Waller, who voted to cut last last meeting, wants to cut this meeting.I would imagine you agree. Are we you think we should see cuts. >> Sure.Absolutely. Uh been pretty clear about that and and our notes to clients as well as discussions with uh you and others on the network. I think uh there's a very cogent case for much lower interest rates.>> Much lower ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - Fed Governor Waller advocated for rate cuts, suggesting the Fed might need to go further to reach neutral [2] - Waller's call for cuts is based on the idea that tariffs are temporary and don't create wider inflation [3] - St Louis Fed President expressed concerns about downside risks to the labor market, indicating flexibility [4] - Atlanta Fed President Bostic maintains a baseline of one rate cut this year but could move to September if the job market slows faster [5] - The market shows a 95% probability of a September rate cut and around a 51% probability of an October cut [6] - The market anticipates the Fed moving towards neutral, with the December 26 Fed funds contract around 3% [8] Market Expectations - The market views a September rate cut as highly likely [7] - The focus is shifting to whether there will be additional rate cuts in the remaining meetings this year [7] - The market expects the Fed to move towards a neutral stance by the end of next year [9] Fed Governance - Fed officials declined to comment on the situation surrounding Fed Governor Lisa Cook [6] - Arguments are being made that potential issues with Lisa Cook's disclosures were known when she submitted her documents [12] - The administration seeks summary judgment on Lisa Cook's case, while her attorney requests a review of relevant documents and interviews [13][14]

Bank of England Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli says interest rates may need to settle only slightly below their current level of 4% to keep inflation under control https://t.co/vyZIGyBOLI ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - The speaker advocates for initiating rate cuts at the next meeting due to a softening labor market [1][4] - The speaker initially faced skepticism regarding the labor market's performance, but subsequent data validated concerns [2][3][4] - The speaker suggests the possibility of multiple rate cuts over the next 3 to 6 months, contingent on incoming data [5] - The speaker emphasizes that rate cuts do not need to follow a predetermined sequence [4] Labor Market Analysis - The speaker notes that the labor market's deterioration tends to be rapid and nonlinear [4] - Discrepancies existed between anecdotal evidence (no hiring, layoffs) and initial BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data [2][3] - The speaker believed that initial BLS numbers were inaccurate, which was later confirmed [3][4] Inflation Concerns - The speaker is not personally concerned about tariff inflation, but acknowledges that it remains a widespread concern [5]