Maybe you hate JPAL. Maybe you love him. Maybe you have no idea who he is.Regardless, what you need to know is that he's in charge of the Federal Reserve. So, he controls what's known as short rates. That means the short-term interest rates there are are like the ones you borrowed today and pay me back to bar.The president appoints the head of the Federal Reserve, and in this case, it was President Trump who hired Pal during his first term. Trump now thinks Pal's doing a terrible job because he won't cut in ...

Market Trends & Dynamics - Markets are trying to recover after President Trump's comments on potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, causing market unease [3] - The market is closely watching the drama between Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with concerns that firing Powell would create a "mess" in both equity and bond markets [27][28] - Fed independence is seen as critical, with major banking names emphasizing its importance [29] - AI demand remains strong, with no signs of a slowdown, benefiting companies like Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor [15][16][17] Company Performance & Earnings - Lucid Group's stock surged over 25% after securing a $300 million investment from Uber for a robo-taxi program [7] - Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) now projects full-year sales growth of 30% year-over-year, up from a previous estimate in the mid-20% range, indicating strong tech demand [13][14] - PepsiCo reported better-than-feared earnings with a 9-cent earnings beat and a $400 million quarterly sales beat, maintaining its 2025 sales and profits outlooks [12] Monetary Policy & Federal Reserve - The market is pricing in 50/50 odds for a Fed rate cut in September, down from over 70% a few months ago, showing a rapidly changing outlook [34] - The Federal Reserve's independence is considered a "crown jewel" of the federal system, crucial for preserving currency strength and managing inflation and unemployment [51] - The Fed's target inflation rate is 2%, with the most recent numbers showing a 27% increase in the last month [48] Potential Risks & Concerns - Rising Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield approaching 46%, could weigh on equities [6] - Tariffs could impact the economy, with the full effects potentially hitting in the fall or even 2026 [33] - A potential third term for President Trump is viewed as less impactful on markets than interference with Fed independence [66][70]

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler saidthe US central bank should keep holding interest rates steady “for some time,” citing accelerating inflation as tariffs start to boost prices https://t.co/EhSuUcJFGG ...

today unemployment rate in the low fours full employment uh the inflation rate still elevated but coming down you know I think the reality is is that the bite on the economy is a lot in a small medium-sized business area and and the reason why that happens is they borrow on their floating rate lines of credit and that rate went up substantially and it's come down a bit but it's up substantially and that slows down economic activity and you couple that with them with our commercial clients trying to figure o ...

At Omni Luxe Ledcom. >> Want to get back to Kevin Warsh with the question that we just asked, which was around this idea that and you talked about an accord between the Treasury and the fed, which raised it in my mind. This speculation just last week that potentially Secretary Bessant could also become the head of the fed at the same time and what that would portend.>> So I don't know if I'm supposed to say this on air, but I love Scott. I think Scott is doing a great job. He and I have a similar pedigree.W ...

President Trump says it's highly unlikely he will fire Fed Chairman Pal. But if the president in fact did want to remove Pal from his position, uh what would the process uh look like. Joining us with more on that, Jonathan Caner, former assistant attorney general in the Biden administration.He's also a CNBC uh contributor and our senior economics reporter uh Steve Leeman. I I would uh Jonathan I would say well he said he's not going to do it but um about a month or two ago there was some conjecture and he s ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Leadership - The President is considering potential replacements for Jay Powell as head of the Federal Reserve, whose term ends next May [1][2] - The White House maintains that the Federal Reserve should remain independent, as designed, citing academic literature that demonstrates negative economic consequences when central banks lose independence [7][8] - The President has expressed policy disagreements with the Federal Reserve, believing it has been mismanaged, but the White House asserts he is not disrespecting its independence [8][9] - The President would like to see the Federal Reserve cut rates by as many as three percentage points [9] - There is internal debate and legal uncertainty within the White House regarding the President's authority to fire Jay Powell [17][18] Interest Rates & Economic Policy - If the Federal Reserve had acted at the same pace as the European Central Bank (ECB), rates might be approximately 250 basis points (2.5%) lower [10] - There is a concern that the Federal Reserve's independence is not being respected by its own members, given that several banks worldwide are reducing rates while the Federal Reserve has not changed rates since President Trump's inauguration [10] - The current US interest rate is considered an outlier compared to Europe's rate, given the normal correlation between ECB and Federal Reserve policy [11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed zero inflation for the month [11] Trade & Tariffs - The President is engaged in ongoing trade negotiations with numerous countries, with approximately 20-25 more countries reaching out to the US Trade Representative to begin negotiations [23] - The President will compare the outcomes of these negotiations to the offers in the letters and decide what is best for America, with a decision expected by the beginning of August [23][24] - The White House argues that the President's trade policy has not caused a spike in inflation; in fact, inflation has decreased [25][26] - The Council of Economic Advisors has released a report indicating that the price of imported goods has been decreasing, despite the imposition of almost $200 billion in tariffs [27]

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market reacted negatively to rumors of President Trump firing Federal Reserve chief Pal, with longer-term interest rates increasing from 497% to 507% in an hour, and the S&P 500 decreasing from 6,254 to 6,201 [3][4] - The market rallied when the President denied the rumors, indicating that the stock and bond markets do not want Pal ousted [3][5] - The market is questioning whether Trump is wrong about firing Pal, as stocks are supposed to benefit from lower interest rates, but didn't soar when the rumor of Pal's firing surfaced [8] - The consumer price index showed signs of inflation from the President's tariffs, with higher prices for clothing, furniture, cleaning products, food away from home, meats, poultry, coffee, gasoline, and even soft drinks [10][11] - The Fed is waiting to see the full impact of tariffs before cutting rates, as the economy is not currently in a slowdown, and employment is at 41% [14][15] Big Banks Earnings Analysis - The big banks' year-to-date gains ranged from 7% for Bank of America to nearly 25% for Goldman Sachs, setting a high bar for earnings season [32] - JP Morgan raised its full-year net interest income forecast by $1 billion, but also raised its expense guidance by $500 million [34][35] - Wells Fargo cut its full-year forecast for net interest income, causing the stock to drop more than 5% [38][39] - Citigroup reported a big top and bottom line beat, with net interest income more than $1 billion above the consensus estimate, and the stock jumped 37% [42] - Bank of America managed a bottom line beat, but missed on the top line due to a nasty net interest income miss [45] - Goldman Sachs had the best report of the big banks, with investment banking up 26% year-over-year, equities trading up 36%, and M&A advisory revenue up 71% year-over-year [48][49] - Morgan Stanley reported healthy top and bottom line beats, with wealth and investment management having $82 trillion in combined total client assets [49] Cheesecake Factory Analysis - Cheesecake Factory's stock is up over 31% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500's 65% gain over the same period [53] - The company has 350 locations across the US and Canada, including 215 flagship Cheesecake Factory restaurants [54] - The diverse menu eliminates the "no vote" when deciding where to go out to eat, and the wide variety of price points offers value for everyone [57] - Cheesecake Factory's annualized unit volume is $125 million, an obscenely large number for the restaurant industry [58] - The company has been named one of Fortune Magazine's 100 best places to work for the 12th consecutive year [60] - Recent operational performance and notable results were driven by the company's talented team and ongoing focus on staffing and retention [62] - The company delivered impressive unit level margins of 166% in its most recent quarter, while Wall Street was only looking for 158% [66] - The company is planning to open 25 new locations this year across all their brands, with North Italia's unified at $775 million and Flower Child's at $46 million [67][68] First Horizon Analysis - First Horizon delivered a strong enough quarter to make the stock rally, with a small revenue beat plus a nice 3 cent earnings beat off a 42 cent basis [78][79] - The customer has become very encouraged and confident over the course of the last 90 days, with momentum building across the quarter [81] - The company's CFO said that the high rates has really stifled mortgage originations, but the team has done a really nice job of consolidating market share [86] - Lower rates would actually accelerate growth in the economy, and would have a stimulative effect in the near term [90][91] - There's a real opportunity in the middle market space, and there's a very good place for First Horizon in this space [93][94] Investment Strategy - When a stock starts to go lower, it will often keep going lower until all the people who don't know anything are done selling, and you get a terrific price from their ignorance [113] - If you own a stock and you see it go down, first check the conference call transcript, then put it through a chatbot and ask if anything went wrong that you might have missed [115][116] - If it checks out, then the answer is you need to do some buying on weakness, because the weakness won't last for long [116]

Our next guest says President Trump firing Jerome Powell is quote a terrible idea that would only have negative long-term consequences. Loretta Mester is the former president of the Cleveland Fed and a CNBC contributor, someone that knows an awful lot about the inner workings of all of this. We're lucky to have you here.Thank you so much, Miss Mester. I guess just to get started, what was your general take on how today's events played out and what you think should or should not happen. Well, it's just anoth ...

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he still supports holding interest rates steady and pointed to recent inflation data showing price pressures are rising https://t.co/rylbcqVuNz ...