Trump Says He’s ‘Not Done’ With Putin As Russian Official Mocks ‘Theatrical’ Tariff Threathttps://t.co/I8krrugZCB https://t.co/PuexUSYLnH ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to TSMC with a price target of NT$1,275.0 by December 2025 [4][6]. Core Insights - TSMC's 2Q25 sales were NT$934 billion, reflecting an 11% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 39% year-over-year increase, driven by strong demand for N3 and accelerated AI shipments [3][4]. - The company is expected to raise its FY25 revenue guidance to high 20% growth in USD terms, supported by robust AI demand and minimal order reductions from major clients like Apple [3][6]. - For FY26, TSMC is projected to achieve 14% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by price hikes and strong demand for N2 and N3 processes [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - TSMC's June revenue was NT$264 billion, down 18% month-over-month but up 27% year-over-year [3]. - The 2Q GM is expected to fall within the company's guidance range of 57-59%, despite the TWD appreciating by 11% [3]. Future Outlook - For 3Q25, TSMC is expected to guide for 3-6% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth, primarily due to ongoing strong demand for N3 and N4/N5 [3]. - The company anticipates a decline in GM due to the impact of TWD appreciation [3]. Key Topics for Earnings Meeting - Key discussion points for the upcoming earnings meeting include demand visibility for AI, growth expectations for 4Q25, and the potential impact of TWD appreciation on GM [3][4]. Valuation - The price target of NT$1,275 is based on approximately 20x 12-month forward P/E, reflecting positive demand drivers and a stronger ramp for N2 in 2026 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Exports to the US have shown a significant contribution to year-on-year growth, with a +2.6 percentage point increase, while exports to the rest of the world (RoW) decreased by -1.6 percentage points, indicating a mixed performance in export markets [2] - Imports have turned positive year-on-year for the first time this year, primarily due to higher commodity prices and a low base effect, although month-on-month growth remains soft at -0.6% seasonally adjusted [3] - A slowdown in global trade is anticipated in the second half of the year, with estimates suggesting that payback from front-loading could reduce year-on-year growth by 2 percentage points compared to the first half [4] Summary by Sections Trade Balance and Exports - The trade balance for June 2025 was reported at 115 billion USD, with exports totaling 325 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [6] - Exports to the US decreased by -16.1% year-on-year, while exports to Japan and the EU increased by 6.6% and 7.6% respectively [6] Imports - Total imports in June 2025 were 210 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0% [6] - Mechanical and electrical products saw a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, while steel products and crude petroleum oil experienced declines of -13.1% and -14.3% respectively [6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's exports in the second half of the year, which may impact aggregate demand and inflation [10] - The stabilization of rare earth exports is noted, following a rapid deceleration earlier in the year [10]

Economists have long been warning of a tariff-driven boost to US inflation. The next report on consumer prices will put their conviction to the test: Here’s your Evening Briefing https://t.co/23qGQ3bbGG ...

The Trump administration withdrew from a longstanding trade agreement with Mexico governing the import of tomatoes and will push forward with a new tariff of just over 17% https://t.co/8rWLYCz5oP ...

US tariff threat leaves Russia less rattled than relieved https://t.co/npBYv26Js8 ...

You know, you know, the biggest most interesting uh data item in this place, Joe, is the fact that the CEA put out a report, Council of Economic Advisors, that showed that uh import prices into the US are dropping, actually dropping during all this. And my theory as an economist of why that is is that Americans because of President Trump's leadership have recognized that when they buy an American product, they not only get perhaps a better product, certainly a better product most of the time, but they're al ...

Economists have long been warning of a tariff-driven boost to US inflation. The next report on consumer prices will put their conviction to the test https://t.co/1oMgn9aWkz ...

US stocks extended declines Monday to fall further from records, as President Donald Trump’s latest salvo of tariff threats for Europe and Mexico kept investors on edge https://t.co/UJPKjkyCRw ...

Orange juice futures rose to a three-month high in New York on mounting worries that President Donald Trump’s threat to slap a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods will curb supplies to the US. https://t.co/wqfew4fWZV ...