Market Sentiment & Trade - The market has absorbed tariff headlines well, with a 26% increase since Liberation Day despite existing uncertainties [1] - There's a prevailing sentiment that bad news isn't causing sell-offs, and good news is driving the market forward, despite trade deal uncertainties [2] - The market anticipates potential rate cuts and a recovery in EPS and GDP in 2026 [5] Macroeconomic Factors - Macroeconomic degradation, specifically in unemployment or core CPI, could impact how news is absorbed [3] - Increased pricing pressure is emerging, particularly affecting low-end consumers, potentially impacting philanthropic giving and smaller businesses [4] - Philanthropic giving and spending reflect sentiment about the future rather than past data [7] Economic Dynamics - Significant cash reserves exist on the sidelines from individuals and institutions, suggesting potential for increased money velocity [8] - The "fourth industrial revolution," largely US large-cap dependent, is expected to broaden out to other sectors [8] - About half of the S&P is performing better than the S&P itself, with 175 stocks up over 10% year-to-date, indicating broadening market participation [9] Potential Risks - The Build Back Better (BBB) initiative could exacerbate existing pressures on the low end of the consumer market [10]

Financial Performance - Circle's annual revenue is $1.7 billion, with 99% derived from treasury yields [1] - A 1% rate drop would result in a $441 million loss for Circle [1] Market & Regulatory Landscape - Rate cuts pose a threat to Circle's entire existence [1] - Regulatory wins do not solve Circle's broken revenue models [1] - There is a 65% chance of rate cuts in September [1] - Tether prints offshore, making it immune to Federal Reserve policy [1] - Circle's MiCA license is worthless at 0% interest rates [1]

🇺🇸 ITS CONFIRMED: 2-3 RATE CUTS ARE COMING BEFORE THE END OF 2025.IF WE ALSO GET HINTS OF QE, I THINKMARKET WILL EXPLODE IN Q4 🚀 ...

Hello and welcome to the latest edition of Market Sunrise. We've got another packed show for you this morning. The question of the day is, will President Trump's big beautiful bill get passed before the July 4th holiday.Well, also coming up in today's show, we'll take a look ahead to the US unemployment report and how the tears of a finance minister moved the markets. Stick around too to hear more from our exclusive interview with the secretary general of the OECD. I asked him whether AI would take away our ...

Market & Economic Outlook - The bond market has largely priced in the current fiscal situation, suggesting that a massive bond bearish environment may be overstated [1] - The US is perceived to be moving towards fiscal consolidation, despite consensus views to the contrary [1] - The market is pushing for rate cuts, influenced by factors such as the labor market and potentially President Trump [3] - Dollar decline tends to be stimulative for the economy [3] Fiscal Policy & Deficit - The recent bill is expected to slightly increase the deficit over the next 10 years, but the impact may be offset by revenue from tariffs [1] - Extending the 2017 tax cut is estimated to cost $4.5 trillion and is not considered particularly stimulative [1] - Post-pandemic US fiscal spending was unprecedented, matching levels during World War II and exceeding other major economies by four times [1] Monetary Policy - The Fed potentially has 450 basis points worth of cuts to enact [4] - The market may respond more to anticipated future actions (the "shadow chair") than to the current Fed chair's actions [5] US vs UK - The US differs from the UK due to a wider international appetite for US bonds, contingent on trade negotiations [1]

Market Trend & Dollar Impact - A weaker dollar generally supports stocks, benefiting companies with overseas sales [2][3] - Approximately 40% of S&P 500 sales are outside the US, making a weaker dollar a positive factor [3] - Multinational corporations may find a cushion in overseas earnings due to the weaker dollar, especially if domestic conditions are uncertain [4] Economic Outlook & Valuation - The US economy experienced an average growth of 1% in the first half of the year [6] - Market valuations are considered expensive by traditional metrics, but low oil prices and interest rates support high valuations [7][8] - Key risks to watch include spikes in interest rates, oil prices, and unemployment, as these could negatively impact valuations [9] Employment & Monetary Policy - The employment backdrop has been softening for over a year, indicating a bifurcated economy with some companies needing to conduct layoffs [11] - A glacial slowdown in employment is anticipated to lead to rate cuts [12] - The current economic situation is not expected to result in a recession similar to 2007 [12]

Fed Chair Powell Says Trump Policies to Blame for Lack of Rate Cuts► https://t.co/2mVm9ZRW5d https://t.co/2mVm9ZRW5d ...

🇺🇸 FED POWELL SAYS THE SOLID MAJORITY AT THE FED ARE EXPECTING RATE CUTS LATER THIS YEAR.BULLISH FOR MARKETS !!! https://t.co/CTtmaHrVtz ...

Gold rose for a second day on optimism the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts later this year https://t.co/Rl3sCcALmm ...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reveals the Jerome Powell is on his way out. Can the U.S. President fire him? Will rate cuts happen? IS THE 4 YEAR CYCLE INTACT? Also, Solana goes big on tokenized stocks and Ethereum gets a new voice. 🟣 Kraken sign up - Claim $25 in the APP! 👇👇 🟣 WHY Kraken? Vid - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2FPQNHaLvY 🟣 *Affiliate Link - https://kraken.pxf.io/c/2406374/2935711/10583 ●▬▬▬▬▬▬CRYPTO CRITICAL VIDEOS▬▬▬▬▬▬▬● WHY & WHEN I'M SELLING 80% of my CRYPTO 2025 - https://youtube.co ...