来源：央视新闻 参考消息 北京日报 当地时间7月2日， 伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬批准暂停与国际原子能机构合作。 伊朗正式颁布法律 暂停与国际原子能机构合作 当地时间6月26日，伊朗议会议长卡利巴夫通过其社交账号表示，经宪法监护委员会批准，伊 朗暂停与国际原子能机构合作的法律已于当天正式颁布。 他同时批评国际原子能机构为战争和侵略行为提供便利，沦为以色列政权的代理人，伊朗将 在确保本国核设施安全之前，停止与该机构的一切合作。 "伊核计划被推迟约1至2年" 美国防部再称摧毁伊朗核设施 当地时间7月2日，美国国防部发言人肖恩·帕内尔表示，美国目前的评估是 伊朗核设施已被 摧毁，伊朗核计划已被推迟约1至2年 。 本月早些时候，美国对伊朗的三处核设施发动打击。美国总统特朗普和其他白宫官员多次高 调宣布胜利，但有关"伊朗核设施已被摧毁"的说法外界并不认可。美国媒体更是屡屡"拆 台"。目前，与伊朗核能力有关的伊核设施受损情况、是否转移浓缩铀，各方表态仍不统一。 美国务院：伊朗暂停与国际原子能机构的合作"不可接受" 当地时间7月2日，美国国务院称，伊朗选择暂停与国际原子能机构的合作是"不可接受的"， 伊朗必须立即全面与国际原子能机 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. State Department finds Iran's decision to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency unacceptable, emphasizing the need for Iran to fully cooperate without further delays [6] - Iran's Foreign Minister stated that there is currently no accurate information regarding damage to nuclear facilities, but it appears these facilities are currently non-operational, pending an assessment report on their potential restart [7] - The U.S. Department of Defense reiterated that the destruction of Iran's nuclear facilities has delayed the Iranian nuclear program by approximately 1 to 2 years [4] Group 2 - Ongoing airstrikes by Israel in Gaza have resulted in 108 fatalities [1] - Hamas is reviewing a newly received draft for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza [2] - An Iranian official warned of a devastating response if enemies launch another invasion [3] - The Israeli Foreign Minister indicated it is time to reinitiate "sanction countermeasures" against Iran [5]

Core Viewpoint - For Iran, as long as it retains its "green mountains," it cannot be considered a loss. The "green mountains" refer to the survival of the regime and the capability to develop nuclear energy [1][12]. Group 1: Iran's Responses - The first response was a symbolic retaliation, where Iran launched 14 missiles at the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, resulting in no casualties due to prior warnings [3]. - The second response involved celebrating a perceived victory, with public celebrations in Iran and a speech from Supreme Leader Khamenei, who claimed victory over "false Jewish nationalism" and the U.S. [4]. - The third response was a national mourning ceremony held in Tehran for over 60 individuals, including high-ranking military officials and civilians, who died in the conflict [6]. Group 2: Future Negotiations - It is anticipated that Iran will soon return to the negotiation table, as indicated by U.S. President Trump's confidence in reaching an agreement regarding Iran's nuclear program [8][17]. - The U.S. aims to place Iran's nuclear development under strict supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and may also seek to limit Iran's missile development capabilities [13]. - Iran's Foreign Minister has publicly requested that Trump show respect towards Iran's leadership if he genuinely wishes to negotiate [8]. Group 3: Nuclear Capabilities - Despite the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, the IAEA Director General stated that some aspects of Iran's nuclear program may still exist, and Iran possesses significant nuclear expertise and industrial capabilities [10]. - The resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue is suggested to require agreements and verification systems rather than military action [10][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the U.S. claims to have completely destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities, there are conflicting reports regarding the actual damage and Iran's ability to recover its nuclear capabilities [1][2] - U.S. President Trump stated that three Iranian nuclear facilities were completely destroyed, leaving only "thousands of tons of rock" at the site, and denied any transfer of materials by Iran prior to the attack [1] - The U.S. Department of Defense criticized media reports suggesting limited damage from the attacks, labeling them as "fake news" and asserting that the military's actions were a significant victory [1] Group 2 - The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Grossi, indicated that despite damage to Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran retains the capability to produce enriched uranium within months [2] - Grossi emphasized that while the facilities were severely damaged, they were not completely destroyed, and Iran still possesses the industrial and technical capacity to resume operations quickly [2] - Analysis from experts suggests that while much of Iran's nuclear infrastructure may have been damaged, the country still has the foundational elements necessary to rebuild or restore its nuclear capabilities over an uncertain timeframe [2]

第二，庆祝胜利。 6月24日，伊朗与以色列的停火共识生效，伊朗人民走上街头庆祝胜利。6月26日，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内 伊发表电视讲话祝贺伊朗取得胜利。哈梅内伊称伊朗不仅战胜了"伪犹太复国主义政权"，还"给了美国 一记重重的耳光"，他祝贺伊朗人民非凡的团结与一致。 第一个反应，表演式反击。 6月23日，伊朗使用短程和中程导弹袭击了美国设在卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地。该次袭击没有造成人员 伤亡。美国总统特朗普事后通过社交媒体感谢伊朗方面提前通知，使美方得以及时采取防护措施，避免 人员伤亡。特朗普还透露，伊朗共发射14枚导弹，其中13枚被拦截，1枚因飞向"不具威胁的方向"而未 予拦截。 在美国于6月22日轰炸了伊朗的核设施之后，伊朗在6天之内作出了3个反应。 第三，举行国葬。 6月28日，伊朗在首都德黑兰举行国葬，悼念在以伊冲突中遇难的60多位高级将领、核科学家、新闻工 作者和妇女儿童。 那么，伊朗的"青山"是什么？ 答案是两个：第一，这个政权还在；第二，发展核能的能力还在。 在笔者看来，上述伊朗特色的反应，即使有人事先没有预料到，事后稍一琢磨也会释然于胸。 如无意外，伊朗的下一步应该是再次走上谈判桌。 这方面，美国总统 ...

【原油、燃料油、生猪、瓶片市场动态及走势分析】贝克休斯油服数据显示，美国钻探公司连续九周削 减石油和天然气钻机数量。至6月27日当周，美国石油钻井总数432口，前值438口。钻机数下降或使美 国原油产量增速持续变缓。7月6日，OPEC+自愿减产8国将开会决定8月产量水平。整体看，美国供给 增长弱，OPEC+提产诉求强，油价上涨动力不足。后续需关注伊核问题和OPEC+产量，把握压力位沽 空机会。 供应方面，6月伊朗高硫燃料油供应未受地缘冲突显著影响。参考船期数据，6月发货量预计 105万吨，环比增8万吨，同比减9万吨。新加坡燃料油库存近期增加，6月较前期上升3.9%，库存压力 使燃料油价格承压。短期内，价格或因中东发电旺季需求和地缘政治不确定性震荡；中期，供应增加、 需求改善有限，价格面临下行压力；长期，新能源替代等因素或使需求减少，价格震荡下行。策略上， 把握压力位沽空机会。 据统计，截至6月27日，生猪出栏均重123.62公斤，降0.16公斤；周度屠宰开工 率27.58%，涨0.13%；外购仔猪养殖利润-58.39元/头，降4.97元/头；自繁自养养殖利润75.35元/头，涨 12.24元/头；仔猪价格43 ...

Core Viewpoint - The effectiveness of the U.S. military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities was less than expected, with reports indicating that significant portions of Iran's nuclear capabilities remain intact despite the attacks [1][2][4]. Group 1: U.S. Military Actions - U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that while key nuclear facilities were targeted, the destruction was not as extensive as anticipated, with some officials stating that the core components for uranium enrichment remain operational [2][4]. - President Trump claimed that the strikes completely destroyed the targeted sites, stating "now there are only a few thousand tons of rock left" at the Fordow facility [4]. - Reports indicate that the U.S. military strikes only sealed the entrances of two nuclear facilities without destroying their underground structures, leading to speculation that Iran may have relocated some enriched uranium prior to the attacks [2][4]. Group 2: International Reactions - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Grossi acknowledged that while Iran's nuclear program suffered significant damage, some uranium processing and enrichment capabilities still exist [4]. - Iran's Foreign Minister sent a letter to the UN Secretary-General and the Security Council, demanding accountability from the U.S. and Israel for their military actions, including war reparations [8]. - French President Macron called for adherence to the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran and urged Iran to return to negotiations regarding its nuclear program [10].

据央视新闻报道，当地时间29日，美国总统特朗普称，已完全摧毁伊朗三处核设施，那里"现 在只有几千吨岩石"。同一天，美国防部指责媒体关于袭击效果有限的报道是"假新闻"。 截至目前， 与伊朗核能力有关的伊核设施受损情况、是否转移浓缩铀，各方表态仍不统一。 而伊朗方面29日接连做出应对冲突的强硬表态。 同一天，据央视新闻消息，《华盛顿邮报》援引四名熟悉美国政府内部机密情报的人士话说， 美国截获了伊朗高级官员之间的通信，内容涉及本月美国对伊朗核计划的军事打击，伊朗官员 表示此次袭击的破坏力没有他们预期的那么大。 知情人士透露，此次通话本是私下进行，伊朗政府官员在猜测，为何美方的袭击没有像他们预 期的那样具有破坏性和广泛性。 伊核设施受损情况各方表态仍不统一 特朗普：已完全摧毁伊朗三处核设施 当地时间6月29日，美国总统特朗普表示，美国对伊朗福尔多核设施的袭击完全摧毁了目标地 点。 特朗普说，"现在那个地方只有几千吨的岩石，整个地方被摧毁了 ，伊朗另外两个核设 施也被摧毁了"。 特朗普称，以色列对伊朗核设施造成了破坏，但美国造成了最后的破坏。 特朗普否认伊朗在美国发起袭击前将任何东西进行了转移。 情报显示伊朗官员认为破 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the recent military actions by the United States against Iran's nuclear facilities, with President Trump claiming complete destruction of three sites [1][3] - The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Grossi indicates that despite damage, Iran retains the capability to produce enriched uranium within months [2][8] - The U.S. Department of Defense refutes media reports suggesting limited damage from the attacks, labeling them as "fake news" [7] Group 1: U.S. Actions and Claims - President Trump asserts that the U.S. has completely destroyed three Iranian nuclear facilities, leaving only "thousands of tons of rock" at the sites [1][3] - Trump denies that Iran had the opportunity to transfer any materials before the U.S. strikes, emphasizing the surprise nature of the attacks [3] - The U.S. military's involvement included B-2 bombers, with pilots expected to visit the White House following the operations [3] Group 2: Iran's Response and Capabilities - Grossi states that while Iranian nuclear facilities were significantly damaged, they are not completely destroyed, and Iran can resume uranium enrichment in a few months [2][8] - Iranian officials reportedly expressed skepticism about the extent of damage from U.S. attacks, indicating that the impact was less than anticipated [7] - Iran's leadership maintains a strong stance against the U.S. and Israel, asserting readiness to respond to any further aggression [10] Group 3: International Reactions - French President Macron calls for adherence to ceasefire agreements and urges Iran to return to negotiations regarding its nuclear program [8] - Macron emphasizes the importance of maintaining the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty and the role of the IAEA in monitoring Iran's nuclear activities [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complex history and ongoing political dynamics surrounding Iran's nuclear program, highlighting the role of the United States and Israel in shaping the situation, and the implications for regional stability and international relations [1][12]. Group 1: Historical Context - The U.S. initially supported Iran's nuclear capabilities in the 1950s, providing technology and training, which laid the groundwork for the current nuclear issue [4][6]. - The 1979 Islamic Revolution led to a shift in Iran's nuclear ambitions, with the new regime viewing nuclear technology as a symbol of Western influence [5][6]. - After the Iran-Iraq War, Iran sought to revive its nuclear program, recognizing the need for military deterrence [6][8]. Group 2: Key Events and Developments - The exposure of Iran's nuclear facilities in 2002 marked a turning point, leading to increased scrutiny and tensions between Iran and the international community [6][7]. - The 2005 resumption of uranium enrichment by Iran, despite international pressure, escalated the situation, resulting in UN sanctions [8][9]. - The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was a significant diplomatic achievement, temporarily easing sanctions in exchange for limitations on Iran's nuclear program [10][11]. Group 3: Recent Tensions and Developments - The U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 under the Trump administration reignited tensions, leading to a "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran [12][13]. - Recent military actions by the U.S. against Iranian nuclear facilities have further complicated the situation, raising concerns about regional stability [12][13]. - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, particularly in the context of proxy battles, continues to influence the dynamics of the nuclear issue [12][13].