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The Challenge of Absolutist Politics
Budget Deficit & GDP Target - The consensus is to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP [1] - Political constraints prevent pledges to achieve the 3% GDP target [1] Political Obstacles - Politicians are hesitant to compromise due to constituent and party pressures [2] - Fear of political repercussions hinders necessary budget adjustments [2] Potential Financial Crisis - Failure to adjust the current trajectory may lead to a financial crash [1]
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-02 10:34
Romania is set to present a fiscal package of tax hikes and wage freezes in the public sector to scale back the budget deficit https://t.co/y44U1kOGbf ...
Market doesn't seem worried about budget deficit in Trump's bill, says Bespoke's Paul Hickey
CNBC Television· 2025-07-01 20:47
Well, uh, the major averages wrapped up a strong quarter of gains yesterday. S&P and NASDAQ both up double digits with tech leading the way and the S&P 500. But not all areas of this market had a great quarter.The S&P Value ETF up less than 3% while the growth stocks rallied more than 18. So, will the trend last. Let's ask Bespoke Investment Group co-founder Paul Hickeyi and HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth Management CIO Jose Rasco.Guys, welcome. Jose, I actually though want to start with the market ...
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2025-07-01 17:32
Forecasts suggest that the bill would widen America’s budget deficit, slow long-term economic growth and hurt the poor. Our charts show by how much https://t.co/3u9XaOlKEG ...
X @Bloomberg
Bloomberg· 2025-07-01 09:28
Indonesia expects to post a much bigger budget deficit this year due to weak revenue collections and the acceleration of President Prabowo Subianto’s priority programs. https://t.co/NuS2JJ9Gfm ...
‘How complete the purge is now’: Ex-GOP advisor reacts to two lawmakers leaving congress
MSNBC· 2025-06-30 21:15
If they were retiring, would they be yeses on this bill. Well, they would. No question about it, Katie.I mean, this is just a example of how complete the purge is now with his retirement and Don Bacon's announcement, the congressman from Nebraska. The the the irony here is that it's a it's a shortterm gain for Donald Trump and it's and it's just shown, you know, uh unprecedented political strength that he's been able to do this. But the problem is that he's taking people out of the party who are willing to ...
Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati on Budget Plans
Bloomberg Television· 2025-06-25 04:25
Indonesia’s finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati says the Southeast Asian country is on track to keep a modest budget deficit this year in an interview with Haslinda Amin. She speaks with Bloomberg Television on the sidelines of the annual meeting of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in Beijing. -------- More on Bloomberg Television and Markets Like this video? Subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any videos from Bloomberg Markets & Finance: https://tinyurl.com/ysu5b8a9 Visit http: ...
Dalio's 3% 3 Part Solution to Decrease the Deficit
One way or another, you have to bring debt the deficit not only in the United States but other places but I'm focusing on the United States down to from a supply demand point of view down to about 3%. So that's the 3% of GDP that that's an amount that the market I think can digest. Um it will um affect also the supply demand.There are when I say three parts I think when we think of budgets we think of taxes and spending um but also interest has a huge effect. um a 1% change in the interest rate, 100 basis p ...
Gundlach on Treasuries, Gold, Fed, AI, Private Credit, Trump
Bloomberg Television· 2025-06-11 19:31
U.S. Fiscal Outlook and Treasury Market - The U.S. faces an unsustainable fiscal path, with the interest expense becoming untenable due to high budget deficits and sticky interest rates [1][4] - The average coupon on Treasuries has risen from below 2% to pushing 4%, creating a building problem as trillions of bonds mature and are re-issued at higher rates, a difference of 400 basis points [4][5][6] - The long-term Treasury bond is no longer behaving as a legitimate flight to quality asset, and is not responding to lower interest rates or an inflation rate around 25%, with potential for it to go higher [6][7] - The U.S national debt is approaching $37 trillion, requiring creative solutions, and markets are starting to acknowledge this [7][8] Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - A paradigm shift is occurring where money is no longer flowing into the United States, and the long bond is not acting as a flight to quality asset, with gold emerging as an alternative [16] - The dollar is falling, and some of the $25 trillion net investment position that flowed into the U.S over the past two decades could potentially flow out, suggesting increased allocations to non-dollar investments [9][10] - The market environment feels similar to 1999 (dot-com bubble) and 2006/2007 (pre-credit crisis), with AI enthusiasm mirroring the dot-com boom [21][22] - A great buying opportunity is anticipated, but the timing is uncertain [21] Private Credit and Alternative Investments - There is overinvestment in private credit, and the excess reward is not as attractive as it once was, potentially leading to forced selling [32] - Gold has proven to be a source of growth, outperforming Bitcoin year-to-date, and is recommended as an asset class, with central banks accumulating gold [16][17][50] - Dollar-based investors should consider investing in foreign currencies and selective emerging market equities, as the S&P 500 is underperforming MSCI Europe year-to-date [51][52] Restructuring and Long-Term Themes - There is a need to restructure various aspects of the system, including institutions, political parties, and finances, due to wealth inequality and calcified property relations [42][46] - India is highlighted as a long-term investment theme, with a similar profile to China 35 years ago, benefiting from demographic outlook, supply chain shifts, and technology [48][49]
When Does US Debt Become Genuinely Bad? | WSJ
(gentle music) - [Narrator] After the big tariff announcement, something happened that shocked economists, and it wasn't the stock market dropping, it was the value of the dollar dropping. Usually in times of market turmoil, it increases because investors are flocking to the US for safety. - We saw exactly the opposite.Money fled from the US for safety instead of to the US for safety for the first time in my memory. - That was a sign that something was getting different and that people weren't just shifting ...