US Debt & National Security - US national debt is seen as a significant threat to national security, potentially squeezing the discretionary defense budget [2][3] - The US is expected to spend $90 billion more on interest payments than on defense in 2024, marking a critical tipping point [4] - Increased defense spending by $2 billion this year and $150 billion over the next decade is projected due to recent tax and spending legislation [4] - The law will boost interest costs by $700 billion [4] - Adversaries like Russia and China may view US debt levels as a vulnerability [5] International Implications - China, a large foreign holder of US treasuries, has been steadily reducing its holdings [6] - Japan holds over $1 trillion worth of US debt, the most of any foreign country [6] - Reworking global trade relationships could impact international demand for treasuries and the US dollar [7][9] - Tariffs announced with Japan speak to the leverage that Japanese investors may have in trade talks [8] Potential Solutions & Challenges - Addressing the deficit requires a combination of spending cuts, tax increases, and a rainy day fund [11] - Solving the problem solely through tax revenue would require a 30% tax increase, while solving it solely through spending cuts would require a 25% spending cut [12] - Political divide is considered a major threat, potentially hindering efforts to address the debt issue [13]

Мы-то планируем сокращение расходов на оборону. У нас вот и в следующем году, и через год, и на ближайшую трёхлетку мы планируем, ну, пока нет договорённости окончательной между Минобороной, Минфином, Миноэкономразвития, но в целом все думают именно в этом направлении, а Европа думает о том, как поднять свои расходы наоборот. Так кто готовится к каким-то агрессивным действиям.Мы или они. Мы, да, хотим завершить специальную военную операцию с нужным нам результатом. Конечно, но на это всё и ээ рассчитывается ...

Macroeconomic Analysis - Higher interest rates are exposing imbalances, leading to an unwind of capital misallocation dating back to 2008 and potentially 1989 [1] - The US stimulus post-GFC attracted capital due to its financial infrastructure [2] - A major capital rotation towards Europe and the rest of the world is underway, rebalancing global capital flows [4] - Zero percent interest rate policies masked underlying imbalances, now exposed with rates at 45%-5% [20][21] - Global synchronous growth is possible due to stronger US performance, surprising Chinese retail sales and exports, and Europe releasing its debt brake on fiscal spending [28] Defense Spending and Industrial Policy - Europe's lack of a military-industrial complex has hindered its technological development [3] - Increased defense spending, potentially reaching $14 trillion, could stimulate a major CapEx boom cycle [4][5][6] - Private capital is crucial for efficiently allocating capital in Europe's defense sector, balancing control and market pressure [13][14] - Europe has a hidden defense sector with many dual-purpose companies, presenting investment opportunities [16] Energy Security and Transition - Energy security, not climate concerns, is driving investments in nuclear, solar, and EVs [17][18] - The US energy independence has changed its geopolitical calculations, particularly regarding the Middle East [22][23][24] - Underinvestment in key commodities like copper and lithium, coupled with misallocation of capital, suggests a potential reversal [31][33]

Fincantieri plans to focus some Italian civil and military shipyards on just making warships, in the latest sign that Europe’s defense-spending bonanza is reshaping industrial strategy https://t.co/jr5vHaHxiD ...

China’s envoy to Canberra urged Australia not to be “incited” by NATO’s support for US demands to sharply raise defense spending and instead cooperate with Beijing https://t.co/ZdyQce4R1p ...

Between tariffs and defense spending, ties between the US and Japan aren't what they used to be, writes @GearoidReidy (via @opinion) https://t.co/BxHfxI4NDT ...

From @WSJopinion: America has long asked its European allies to spend more on their own defense. So the astonishing news out of this week’s summit is the near unanimity: NATO allies have agreed to devote 5% of their economies to military spending. https://t.co/LypEr2Q6ZU ...

Macron has pledged to increase defense spending, but the increased military outlays come with hard choices for a France struggling with deficits and debt. https://t.co/vEUjwC2W7M ...

WELCOME TO "BLOOMBERG ETF IQ." KATIE: WE HAVE THURSDAY RECORDING BECAUSE OF DISRUPTIONS. THE BIGGEST STORIES IN THE MOBILE ETF INDUSTRY, DONALD TRUMP CHEERING THE NEEDLE PLEDGE TO SPEND 5% OF GDP ON DEFENSE. IN JUST MOMENTS WE WILL SPEAK TO CYNTHIA MURPHY ON WHY THE CENTER HAS ONE OF THE BEST PERFORMING ETF'S THIS YEAR.TIM: THEN A DEEPER DIVE INTO THE SECTOR WITH TONY BANCROFT AT CAVALLI. KATIE: J. P.MORGAN IS FURTHER CEMENTING ITSELF AS THE BEST GROWING ACTIVE FUND MANAGER WITH A NEWLY LAUNCHED ETF, FOCUSE ...

walk us through the thinking around this 2.1%. It's fascinating that Spain can say they can deliver the same capability targets that NATO wants for less of the spend. Where is that math coming from. Is NATO doing that 5% math wrong.Basically the uh main idea is very simple is that the necessary spending will come as a result of a fullyfledged analysis of the capabilities that are needed to or provide uh for the the the NATO uh defense on the threats that have been identified. There's been a complete analysi ...