Economic Indicators - Personal income rebounded, increasing by 0.3%, surpassing expectations, a notable improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1][2] - Personal spending rose by 0.3%, slightly below expectations, but reversing a previous decline [2] - Real spending, adjusted for inflation, increased by 0.1%, aligning with expectations [2] Inflation Analysis (PCE) - Month-over-month PCE increased by 0.3%, slightly warmer than previous months, but not the highest reading of the year [3] - Year-over-year PCE increased by 2.8%, the highest reading of the year, equaling March 2024 levels [4] - Core month-over-month PCE increased by 0.3%, the warmest since February [4] - Year-over-year core PCE increased by 2.8%, also warmer than expected and the warmest since February [5] Employment Data - The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the second quarter increased by 0.9%, slightly above expectations [5] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 218,000, lower than expected [6] - Continuing claims remained above 1.9 million, specifically 1,946,000 [6] Market Reaction - Despite slightly hotter PCE numbers, the market did not climb aggressively [7] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by approximately one basis point to 4.34%, but remained down almost three basis points for the session [7]

Market Overview - Pre-market futures are mixed but showing signs of weakness, following record high closes on the S&P 500, with profit-taking being a potential factor [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq is up by 42 points (+0.18%), while the Dow is down 300 points (-0.67%) due to UnitedHealth's DOJ probe, and the S&P 500 is nearly flat at -0.004% [2] Job Market Data - Initial Jobless Claims have decreased for six consecutive weeks, with the latest figure at 217K, the lowest in 14 weeks, down from 250K in early June [3] - Continuing Claims are reported at 1.955 million, slightly above the previous week's revised figure of 1.951 million, indicating a stall just below the 2 million mark [4] Q2 Earnings Reports - American Airlines (AAL) reported earnings of 95 cents per share, exceeding expectations by +20.25%, but shares fell -6% due to warnings of softer demand leading to a Q3 loss [5] - Honeywell (HON) surpassed earnings expectations with $2.75 per share, a +4.2% increase, and revenues of $10.35 billion, but shares are down -2.7% as the company plans to split into three segments by 2026 [6] - Union Pacific (UNP) reported earnings of $3.03 per share, beating expectations by +4.84%, with revenues of $6.2 billion, but shares are down -3% ahead of the opening bell [7] Economic Indicators - Upcoming S&P flash Services and Manufacturing PMI for July are expected to show slight growth in Services to 53.2 and a dip in Manufacturing to 52.7, both remaining above the growth threshold of 50 [8] - New Home Sales for June are anticipated to rise to 645K units, up from 623K the previous month, although existing home sales were disappointing, falling below 4 million for the first time since September [9] Future Earnings Reports - Q2 earnings reports will continue after the market closes, with Intel (INTC) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK) among the companies set to report [10]

Labor Market - US initial jobless claims actual is 217K, below the expected 227K [1] - US initial jobless claims decreased from the previous 221K [1]

Market Performance - S&P 500 创下新纪录高位 [1] - 股票受到好于预期的盈利、零售额和首次申请失业金人数的提振 [1]

Bond Market & Yields - The 10-year yield remains stagnant at 446%, mirroring levels from November, indicating a lack of movement in borrowing costs [1] - Despite positive economic data, bond yields experienced an initial rise followed by a slight decrease, influenced by technical factors [4] - Key psychological levels for yields are identified: just under 2% for 2-year, 450% for 10-year, and 500% for 30-year maturities [5] Economic Data & Fed Policy - Retail sales show a healthy rebound, and initial jobless claims hit a three-month low at 221000 [2][3] - Market expectations for Fed funds imply less easing, shifting from over two quarter-point cuts to 170% [3] - Strong economic data initially pushed yields higher, aligning with typical market behavior [4] Dollar Index - The dollar index is nearing a one-month high, approaching the significant psychological level of 100 [7] - Increased interest rates and a decent labor market contribute to the strengthening of the dollar index [6]

Economic Indicators - Initial Jobless Claims decreased for the fourth consecutive week to 227K, down from a near-term high of 250K four weeks ago, marking the lowest level since May 17th [2] - Continuing Claims increased to 1.965 million from a revised 1.955 million, the highest since November 2021, with four of the past five weeks above 1.95 million [3][4] Company Earnings - Delta Air Lines reported Q2 earnings of $2.10 per share, beating expectations by 9 cents, with revenues of $16.6 billion, slightly above the expected $16.01 billion [5][6] - Delta raised its earnings guidance for Q3 to a range of $1.25-1.75 per share and for the full fiscal year to $5.25-6.25 per share, exceeding analysts' projections [6] - Conagra missed fiscal Q4 earnings expectations, reporting 56 cents per share against the expected 59 cents, with revenues of $2.78 billion below the anticipated $2.84 billion, leading to an 8% drop in shares [6]

I think we're seeing a US economy that is deteriorating. I think of it as different sickly canaries that are appearing in the coal mine. They're not dead yet necessarily, but they're showing signs of real illness and we're likely to see more, I think, as the year progresses.First of all, consumer confidence has taken a hit. What we're seeing also is just signs of reduced consumption. We're seeing a pickup in continuing jobless claims.Uh we're at the highest level since November of 2021. So, all this says to ...

A lot of numbers to go through here. 147,000 jobs created, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is above the 106 estimate that we got from Bloomberg Economics and the economists. We surveyed private payrolls up 74,000.Let's take a look here at the unemployment rate. It falls to 4.1%. There was some thought it was going to go maybe as high as four four.The forecast was four for three. So much better number than anticipated. We also see and I'm going to jump here to jobless claims, a big drop in ...

U.S. equities gained at midday as the government reported fewer initial jobless claims than had been expected. https://t.co/lFRpjrLv8P ...

Economic Indicators - Preliminary durable goods orders surged by 164% [2] - Trade balance deficit reached minus 966 billion [1] - Capital good orders non-defense xir increased by 17% [3] - Shipments rose by 05% [4] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 236000, the lowest since mid-year [7] - Continuing claims remained over 1974 million for five consecutive weeks [7][8] GDP and Consumption - First quarter GDP revised to minus 05%, the weakest since Q1 2022 [4][5] - Consumption dropped to 05% from 12% [6] Inflation - Price index increased to 38%, one-tenth higher than 37% [6] - PCE core moved to 35%, one-tenth higher than 34% [6]