- Ignore the tariffs for a second. Inflation is behaving pretty much exactly as we have expected and hope that it would. We haven't seen effects much yet from tariffs and we didn't expect to by now.We've always said that the timing, amount, and persistence of the inflation would be highly uncertain, and it's certainly improved that. So, we're watching, we expect to see, over the summer, some readings, higher readings, but we're prepared to learn that it can be higher or lower or later or sooner than we'd ex ...

Inflation Trends - Inflation is behaving as expected, even without considering tariffs [1] - The timing, amount, and persistence of inflation remain highly uncertain [1] - Higher inflation readings are expected over the summer [2] - Inflation forecasts for the United States increased materially due to tariffs [3] Monetary Policy - The Fed paused its actions upon observing the size of the tariffs [3] - The Fed is waiting to assess the effects of tariffs on the US economy [4] - The US economy is currently in solid shape [4]

美联储主席鲍威尔：通胀表现符合我们的预期，预计夏季通胀数据将上升。我们认为明智的做法是等待并获取更多信息。当我们看到关税的规模时，我们暂停了行动。只要美国经济保持坚挺，谨慎的做法是等待。 ...

Let's set the scene. We talk about the first half of 2025. At the start of the year, the ten year yield was at 4.56%.It rose to 4.8% shortly before Donald Trump took office. After Liberation Day, it sunk to 3.86%. Now we're stuck at around 4.27%.That's a pretty wide range and it feels like everything has been priced in at some point during this year. What's not priced in. So what's nice about it so far, by the way.I'd say a couple of things. By the way, the best return opportunity this year across debt and ...

I want to talk about the Fed and cuts. I just did a snap poll on X and we have most people think to cuts. That seems a majority.Second, most would be one and then 13% said zero. I'm in the 13% camp. I just don't see the need for it.What's the problem here. Why cut rates. Why change something if it seems to be going so well right now.So. So I throw out one thing. So you think about the Fed raised interest rates 500 basis points.What was the impact on the economy. Not really debilitating. And I think one thin ...

I wouldn't say that I'm concerned about the data today, although clearly there has been a very mild degradation of the of the scope of this of the surveys and things like that. But I would say the direction of travel is is something I'm concerned about and that is um me measuring the US economy carefully and well is a project that's been going on and we're getting better at it for a hundred years and more. And it's really important not just for the Fed, but for Congress and for businesses, frankly, to know ...

I just want to know what the news is because US economy ends up being very durable and we can withstand if it's 15% effective tariff. US economy will be just fine. I think people have been impressed.I've been impressed with everybody calls for a recession and then you see this US economy does does pretty well. We just need to get the news out and as long as we we we find out what is the tariff on China, what's the tariff on Europe and as long as we get that news out markets can breathe a silently. People ar ...