Group 1 - The U.S. added 209,000 non-farm jobs in July, exceeding expectations of 180,000, marking the ninth consecutive month of better-than-expected job growth [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 3.6% to 4.1%, the highest level since November 2021 [1] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 4.0% year-on-year, the lowest since mid-2021, down from 4.1% [1] Group 2 - Job losses were noted in retail (-9,000) and transportation and warehousing (-11,000), indicating companies are cutting non-essential positions [1] - The unemployment rate of 4.1% is close to the Federal Reserve's tolerance limit, historically indicating a potential policy shift when exceeding 4% [1] - The wage-inflation spiral is loosening, with hourly wage growth narrowing for four consecutive quarters, easing upward price pressures [1] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.8%, marking the largest drop in a month, as expectations for interest rate cuts increased [1] - Spot gold surged by 1.2%, reaching $2,370, driven by safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar [1] - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries dropped by 15 basis points, marking the best single-day performance in three months [1] Group 4 - The market is now pricing in an 85% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 68% before the data release [1] - CME interest rate futures indicate the Federal Reserve may cut rates twice this year, in September and December [1] - The narrowing of high-yield bond spreads suggests a potential decrease in borrowing costs for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Group 5 - Ordinary investors are advised to increase holdings in medium to long-term U.S. Treasuries and allocate to gold ETFs while remaining cautious on cyclical stocks [1]

Wage Growth vs Inflation - Wage growth for many Americans lags behind inflation [1] - Low- and middle-paying job holders are experiencing the most financial strain [1]

Wage Growth & Inflation - Euro zone wage growth is projected to decelerate significantly at the start of next year [1] - The ECB's efforts have successfully brought inflation under control [1]

Wage Growth & Inflation - Wage growth for many Americans lags behind inflation [1] - Low- and middle-paying job holders are likely experiencing the most financial strain [1]

Wage Growth & Inflation - Wage growth for many Americans lags behind inflation [1] - Low- and middle-paying job holders are experiencing the most financial strain [1]

Wage Growth vs Inflation - Wage growth for many Americans lags behind inflation [1] - Low- and middle-paying job holders are experiencing the most financial strain [1]

Economic Trends - Inflation is outpacing wage growth for over 40% of Americans [1]

Inflation & Wage Growth - Over 40% of Americans are experiencing inflation outpacing wage growth [1]

Wage Growth Trends - Wage growth for American "job-stayers" now outpaces that for "job-switchers" for the first time in 15 years [1] - This is a visible sign of a wider trend in the labor market [1]

Summary of China Wage Tracker Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Chinese labor market**, specifically wage growth trends and their implications for household income and consumption [3][4][26]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Wage Growth Trends**: - The revamped wage tracker indicates a **downward trend in wage growth** since Q1 2023, following the exit from the zero-Covid policy. Wage growth dropped to **3.9% year-over-year (yoy)** in Q2 2025, the lowest reading outside of the Covid pandemic [3][26]. - In Q1 2025, wage growth was **4.2% yoy**, down from **4.5% yoy** in Q4 2024 [26]. 2. **Challenges in Data Collection**: - Tracking wage data in China is challenging due to **scarcity and measurement issues**. The release of the PBOC survey data has been significantly delayed, with the most recent data available being from **2024Q4** [3][4][5]. - The online recruiting platform Zhaopin.com ceased data publication in Q4 2024, further complicating data tracking [5]. 3. **Revamped Wage Tracker Methodology**: - The new wage tracker incorporates two alternative labor market indicators: - **Employment sub-indices from various PMI surveys**, which correlate highly with wage growth and indicate the labor market is near its weakest in a decade [3][11]. - **Unemployment insurance expenditure**, which correlates positively with the official unemployment rate and negatively with wage growth [14][19]. 4. **Economic Implications**: - Despite a **5.3% real GDP growth** in the first half of 2025, sluggish wage growth may pose headwinds to consumption growth in the latter half of the year [11][26]. - The correlation between increased labor market pressure and declining wage growth has become more pronounced since the onset of the Covid pandemic [19]. 5. **Comparison with Official Data**: - The new wage tracker suggests that the reported wage growth figures are around **1 percentage point lower** than the official figures provided by the NBS, which reported **5.2% and 4.7% yoy** for Q1 and Q2 2025, respectively [26]. Additional Important Insights - The revamped wage tracker was first introduced in **2016** and last modified in **June 2024**. The current modifications aim to provide a more accurate reflection of the labor market conditions in China [4][24]. - The unemployment insurance program serves as a valuable indicator of labor market pressure, with increased expenditure often coinciding with slower wage growth [14][19]. - The methodology for the new wage tracker includes regression analysis based on historical data from **2020 to 2024**, ensuring that the new estimates are grounded in empirical evidence [24][26]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the state of wage growth in China, the challenges faced in data collection, and the implications for the broader economy.