Monetary Policy Stance - The speaker believes the neutral rate is in the mid-2% range and advocates for a swift adjustment to this level [1] - Policy is becoming tighter daily as fiscal and border policies take effect [5] - The speaker does not foresee an imminent economic collapse or labor market crash [5] Factors Influencing Neutral Rate - Fiscal policy is driving up net national borrowing and decreasing net national savings [3] - Immigration policy has caused a significant shift from positive to negative population growth [3] - These shifts in national savings and population growth have implications for the economy's fundamental structure and the neutral rate [3] Risks of Overly Restrictive Policy - Maintaining an excessively restrictive policy for too long poses downside risks to the economy [6] - Prolonged restrictive policy could lead to a meaningful increase in the unemployment rate and failure to meet the employment mandate [6] - The speaker argues that policy was not as tight as perceived last year, but is now tighter than believed due to the declining neutral rate [4]

Market Outlook - Jeffre's chief market strategist David Zervos holds a bullish view on the equity market, citing an incredible earnings outlook and investment horizon driven by policy changes such as deregulation, tax reforms, and tariffs encouraging domestic investment [3] - Zervos believes current monetary policy is too restrictive, creating headwinds, particularly in interest rate-sensitive sectors and the labor market [4] Monetary Policy & Fed - The market perceives the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut as cautious, lacking clear forward guidance for future cuts [5] - Zervos suggests upcoming changes in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) membership, with potential new members holding supply-side views, could shift the Fed's approach [6][7] - The new members may challenge the existing "group think" within the Fed, potentially leading to a less politically influenced monetary policy [7] Valuation - Valuation is subjective, with varying perspectives on the equity market [2] - Traditional models at the Fed may not fully account for the positive impacts of policy changes on the equity market [3]

AI在货币政策管理中的潜力 - 人工智能可能比人类主导的中央银行更好地管理货币政策 [1] - 人工智能在货币政策管理方面将更具可预测性、更值得信赖和更透明 [1]

A top contender vying to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party sought to distance herself from dovish remarks made a year ago, saying the BOJ should decide the particulars of monetary policy https://t.co/LpC77PLeXc ...

Traders are reducing their expectations for how much the Fed will cut interest rates in the months ahead, a shift that shows how mixed messaging from central bank officials has clouded expectations for monetary policy https://t.co/lIWKhUhvdF ...

Now that we've heard from the president of the UN, let's start on the next big focus for the market and that will be the Fed chair's speech this afternoon that follows the Fed's quarterpoint rate cut just last week. Joining us this morning, chief economics correspondent of the Wall Street Journal, Nick Timos is with us. Nick, good to have you.Welcome back. Thanks for having me, Carl. We always sort of have I don't know when pal speaks expressor kind of low expectations.His remarks might not get to monetary ...

The newest Fed governor advocated for a very different approach to monetary policy just last year. What gives, @jonathanjlevin asks (via @opinion) https://t.co/OY5zroYdxP ...

Gold clinched a fresh all-time high, with traders shrugging off cautious commentary from Fed officials about the outlook for monetary policy after the US central bank cut interest rates last week https://t.co/SKDDXGmog2 ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The analysis suggests the appropriate Fed funds rate is in the mid 2% area, almost two percentage points lower than current policy [1] - Monetary policy is considered well into restrictive territory [3] - Short term interest rates are roughly two percentage points too tight [3] Risks and Mandates - Leading policy restrictive by such a large degree brings significant risks for the Fed's employment mandate [2] - The Federal Reserve has the goal of promoting price stability [1] - The commitment is to bring inflation sustainably back to 2% [2] Economic Outlook - Overly tight policy risks unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment [3]

The president is entitled to his views on monetary policy. I think everyone's entitled to their views on monetary policy. He's never asked me to set policy in a specific way.I'm curious what you would do if in a phone call the president directly asked you to vive for a specific decision at the Fed. I would respectfully listen to his view and his analysis of why interest rates should be wherever they think that they should be. And he has been very forthright in his view, right.Which is not exactly the same a ...